Rider Broncs at Loyola Maryland Greyhounds: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 12:00 AM ETReitz Arena · at Loyola MD

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rider and Loyola MD
RID	This season	L-MD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects L-MD 76–70 · win probability L-MD 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: L-MD has more of the edges

RID 0, L-MD 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

L-MDBig

Three-pointers

RID hits 27.6% and allows 38.0%; L-MD hits 32.5% and allows 32.8%. Threes are 27.5% and 47.2% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

RID has played the 201st-hardest schedule, L-MD the 299th. A record against a soft schedule means less

L-MDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: RID 42.8 and allows 55.2; L-MD 50.4 and allows 54.7

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: RID plays 65.7 a game (323rd fastest), L-MD 69.3 (165th). Faster games mean more points

L-MDSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RID 0%, L-MD 33%. Transfers in: RID 6, L-MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

L-MDSmall

Home court

L-MD at home. This season: L-MD 0-0 at home, RID 0-0 away

L-MDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RID 16.9%, L-MD 15.4%. Forced: RID 15.3%, L-MD 15.4%

Even

RID offense vs L-MD defense

Offense 348th of 366 against a defense 313th, on the model’s ratings

Even

L-MD offense vs RID defense

Offense 307th of 366 against a defense 315th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RID 32.6%, L-MD 27.6%. Defensive: RID 67.2%, L-MD 71.0%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: RID 30.1, L-MD 29.9. Allowed: RID 32.5, L-MD 32.7

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	L-MD -5.9	—
Total	—	146.0	—
Projected score	—	RID 70 · L-MD 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	L-MD -3.4	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	RID 32.4 · L-MD 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RID LLWLL	9-19	32%	6-10	—
L-MD LWLWL	16-14	53%	7-5	—

Venue/role: RID away; L-MD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RID OOUUU	9-19	32%	3-25
L-MD OOUUO	17-13	57%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RID	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
L-MD	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rider

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ ARMY	No recent meeting
Nov 30	@ CONN	No recent meeting
Dec 4	@ CAN	L66–72LO

Loyola MD

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ DAY	No recent meeting
Dec 8	@ MAN	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs CCSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rider

28 games played

Straight up

3-25

11% wins

Against the spread

9-19

32% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-19

32% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2511%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-1932%

L L L L L W W L W W L L W L W L L L W W L L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-1932%

U U O O U U U U U O U O U U U U O U O O U U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UVA	L 53-87	+26.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 5	@RUTG	L 53-81	+18.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 18	@TEX	L 65-99	+30.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 20	@HOU	L 45-91	+40.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 25	vsCOPP	L 65-68	-8.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 133
Dec 4	@MRMK	L 66-68	+9.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	@QUIN	L 58-72	+14.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 130
Dec 9	vsBUCK	L 38-51	+2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 16	@DEL	L 57-65	+8.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 122
Dec 22	@VCU	L 79-100	+30.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMAN	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsSIE	L 65-74	+8.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 9	@FAIR	L 62-68	+8.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 11	vsMRST	L 49-71	+10.5	L −11.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 14	vsIONA	W 72-68	+7.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 17	@SPU	L 58-69	+10.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 127
Jan 19	vsSHU	L 85-105	+4.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 190
Jan 24	@MSM	L 61-71	+9.5	L −0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@MAN	L 90-95	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 185
Feb 1	vsSPU	W 81-78	+7.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 159
Feb 5	@MRST	L 52-81	+14.5	L −14.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 7	vsMRMK	L 47-73	+8.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 13	vsMSM	L 55-65	+5.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 15	@SHU	L 75-86	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 20	vsCAN	L 66-72	-1.5	L −7.5	131.5	O 138
Feb 22	vsNIA	W 67-62	+1.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 129
Feb 27	@IONA	L 58-80	+11.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 138
Mar 1	@SIE	L 61-76	+14.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−7.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−9.5

TEX

L 65-99

−3.5

HOU

L 45-91

−5.5

COPP

L 65-68

−11.5

MRMK

L 66-68

+7.5

QUIN

L 58-72

+0.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−10.5

DEL

L 57-65

+0.5

VCU

L 79-100

+9.5

MAN

L 71-74

−0.5

SIE

L 65-74

−0.5

FAIR

L 62-68

+2.5

MRST

L 49-71

−11.5

IONA

W 72-68

+11.5

SPU

L 58-69

−0.5

SHU

L 85-105

−15.5

MSM

L 61-71

−0.5

MAN

L 90-95

+0.5

SPU

W 81-78

+10.5

MRST

L 52-81

−14.5

MRMK

L 47-73

−17.5

MSM

L 55-65

−4.5

SHU

L 75-86

−1.5

CAN

L 66-72

−7.5

NIA

W 67-62

+6.5

IONA

L 58-80

−10.5

SIE

L 61-76

−0.5

covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−8.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−5.5

TEX

L 65-99

+20.5

HOU

L 45-91

+1.5

COPP

L 65-68

−6.5

MRMK

L 66-68

−4.5

QUIN

L 58-72

−17.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−46.5

DEL

L 57-65

−7.5

VCU

L 79-100

+33.5

MAN

L 71-74

−2.5

SIE

L 65-74

+3.5

FAIR

L 62-68

−15.5

MRST

L 49-71

−11.5

IONA

W 72-68

−1.5

SPU

L 58-69

−7.5

SHU

L 85-105

+45.5

MSM

L 61-71

−7.5

MAN

L 90-95

+39.5

SPU

W 81-78

+22.5

MRST

L 52-81

−2.5

MRMK

L 47-73

−17.5

MSM

L 55-65

−17.5

SHU

L 75-86

+14.5

CAN

L 66-72

+6.5

NIA

W 67-62

−2.5

IONA

L 58-80

−3.5

SIE

L 61-76

−0.5

over 9under 19avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Loyola MD

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L L L W L L L L L L W L L W L W W L W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L W W W L W L L L W L L W W W W L W W L W L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

U U U O O U O O O O O U U O U O U O U U O O O U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTOW	L 56-67	+8.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsNJIT	L 64-66	-10.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsSTO	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 16	@FAIR	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 19	@DUQ	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 170
Nov 21	@UK	L 46-88	+35.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 30	vsCOPP	W 95-84	-9.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@HAMP	L 71-93	+6.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 164
Dec 9	@VMI	L 70-86	-2.5	L −18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 13	vsMSM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 21	@GMU	L 79-86	+23.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	@AMER	L 69-84	+8.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	vsLAF	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	@ARMY	W 84-76	+4.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@BUCK	L 67-70	+6.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsCOLG	L 80-86	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 17	vsBU	W 74-57	+1.5	W +18.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 19	@LEH	L 81-88	+3.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsBUCK	W 67-62	-2.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	vsAMER	W 77-68	+4.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	@NAVY	L 71-87	+9.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 158
Feb 4	vsLEH	W 89-84	-2.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 173
Feb 7	@BU	L 69-78	+5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	@LAF	W 68-54	+3.5	W +17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 15	vsHC	W 83-73	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsARMY	L 77-87	-4.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 164
Feb 21	@COLG	L 98-101	+8.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 199
Feb 25	vsNAVY	L 51-78	+6.5	L −20.5	147.5	U 129
Feb 28	@HC	W 76-62	+1.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 138
Mar 5	@COLG	L 77-90	+6.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−2.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−12.5

STO

W 74-63

+4.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+2.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+0.5

L 46-88

−6.5

COPP

W 95-84

+1.5

HAMP

L 71-93

−15.5

VMI

L 70-86

−18.5

MSM

L 73-81

−5.5

GMU

L 79-86

+16.5

AMER

L 69-84

−6.5

LAF

L 64-79

−13.5

ARMY

W 84-76

+12.5

BUCK

L 67-70

+3.5

COLG

L 80-86

+2.5

W 74-57

+18.5

LEH

L 81-88

−3.5

BUCK

W 67-62

+2.5

AMER

W 77-68

+13.5

NAVY

L 71-87

−6.5

LEH

W 89-84

+2.5

L 69-78

−3.5

LAF

W 68-54

+17.5

W 83-73

+5.5

ARMY

L 77-87

−14.5

COLG

L 98-101

+5.5

NAVY

L 51-78

−20.5

W 76-62

+15.5

COLG

L 77-90

−6.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−18.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−9.5

STO

W 74-63

−1.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+31.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+19.5

L 46-88

−25.5

COPP

W 95-84

+35.5

HAMP

L 71-93

+21.5

VMI

L 70-86

+4.5

MSM

L 73-81

+2.5

GMU

L 79-86

+18.5

AMER

L 69-84

−1.5

LAF

L 64-79

−9.5

ARMY

W 84-76

+13.5

BUCK

L 67-70

−6.5

COLG

L 80-86

+15.5

W 74-57

−17.5

LEH

L 81-88

+19.5

BUCK

W 67-62

−18.5

AMER

W 77-68

−2.5

NAVY

L 71-87

+14.5

LEH

W 89-84

+23.5

L 69-78

+1.5

LAF

W 68-54

−25.5

W 83-73

+9.5

ARMY

L 77-87

+14.5

COLG

L 98-101

+48.5

NAVY

L 51-78

−18.5

W 76-62

−13.5

COLG

L 77-90

+11.5

over 17under 13avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola MD has the better starters

Position by position: Rider 0, Loyola MD 1, even 4

RiderBetterLoyola MD

G M. Butler TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.3 ast Score 44

Even

G T. Cicero5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53

G K. Farmer TR3.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6

L-MDSmall

G C. Berg-McLean3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21

G B. Baker TR1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F S. Springer4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 4

G T. Bevins TR0.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F S. Emenalo3.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11

F H. Simmons TR1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Harrison TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

RiderBetterLoyola MD

RID offense348th of 366 · -12.2

Even

L-MD defense313th of 366 · -8.1

RID defense315th of 366 · -8.2

Even

L-MD offense307th of 366 · -9.5

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

L-MDBig

Backcourt-1.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

RIDBig

Frontcourt-4.7 · 3 players

Bench-0.3 · 1 player

RIDSmall

Bench-3.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestRID betterL-MD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rider

Guards

M. Butler34 min · TRK. Farmer14 min · TRB. Baker13 min · TRT. Bevins5 min · TRN. WashingtonNewR. RosaNew

Forwards

H. Simmons6 min · TRR. Brisco2 min · TRK. WylieNewS. Ezekiel ObeNew

Centers

S. Avegah SemeyNew

Loyola MD

Guards

T. Cicero14 minC. Berg-McLean14 minM. Ortega8 min · TRL. RickettsNewR. LongNewS. BiegNew

Forwards

S. Springer17 minS. Emenalo15 minD. Harrison12 min · TRE. Barnes8 minM. Hagedorn7 min · TRA. Huguet7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RID62.6 #359

L-MD73.7 #212

Points per possession

RID0.95 #355

L-MD1.06 #227

Pace (possessions)

RID65.7 #323

L-MD69.3 #165

Shooting

Effective FG%

RID42.8 #365

L-MD50.4 #219

3-point %

RID27.6 #365

L-MD32.5 #251

3-point attempt rate

RID27.5 #361

L-MD47.2 #30

Free throw rate

RID30.1 #307

L-MD29.9 #312

Possessions

Turnover rate

RID16.9 #197

L-MD15.4 #101

Offensive rebound rate

RID32.6 #101

L-MD27.6 #279

Assists per game

RID10.1 #356

L-MD12.6 #246

Defense

Points allowed

RID76.8 #236

L-MD78.5 #280

Points allowed per possession

RID1.17 #341

L-MD1.14 #304

Opponent effective FG%

RID55.2 #335

L-MD54.7 #321

Opponent 3-point %

RID38.0 #356

L-MD32.8 #106

Turnovers forced

RID15.3 #266

L-MD15.4 #261

Defensive rebound rate

RID67.2 #294

L-MD71.0 #103

Steals per game

RID5.9 #247

L-MD6.1 #221

Blocks per game

RID3.2 #188

L-MD3.4 #156

RID		L-MD
Scoring
62.6 #359	Points per game	73.7 #212
0.95 #355	Points per possession	1.06 #227
65.7 #323	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #165
Shooting
42.8 #365	Effective FG%	50.4 #219
27.6 #365	3-point %	32.5 #251
27.5 #361	3-point attempt rate	47.2 #30
30.1 #307	Free throw rate	29.9 #312
Possessions
16.9 #197	Turnover rate	15.4 #101
32.6 #101	Offensive rebound rate	27.6 #279
10.1 #356	Assists per game	12.6 #246
Defense
76.8 #236	Points allowed	78.5 #280
1.17 #341	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #304
55.2 #335	Opponent effective FG%	54.7 #321
38.0 #356	Opponent 3-point %	32.8 #106
15.3 #266	Turnovers forced	15.4 #261
67.2 #294	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #103
5.9 #247	Steals per game	6.1 #221
3.2 #188	Blocks per game	3.4 #156

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rider

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Siena61–76
L@ Iona58–80
Wvs Niagara67–62
Lvs Canisius66–72
L@ Sacred Heart75–86

A week or more of rest.

Loyola MD

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Colgate77–90
W@ Holy Cross76–62
Lvs Navy51–78
L@ Colgate98–101
Lvs Army77–87

A week or more of rest.

Rider Broncs at Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

What could decide it: L-MD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Rider

Loyola MD

Loyola MD has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rider

Loyola MD