Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Dayton Flyers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETUD Arena · at Dayton

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Loyola MD and Dayton
L-MD	This season	DAY
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAY 85–62 · win probability DAY 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

L-MD 1, DAY 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DAYBig

L-MD offense vs DAY defense

Offense 307th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

L-MD has played the 299th-hardest schedule, DAY the 90th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DAYBig

DAY offense vs L-MD defense

Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 313th, on the model’s ratings

DAYBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: L-MD 29.9, DAY 46.1. Allowed: L-MD 32.7, DAY 35.5

DAYSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: L-MD 50.4 and allows 54.7; DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0

DAYSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: L-MD 15.4%, DAY 16.9%. Forced: L-MD 15.4%, DAY 21.0%

DAYSmall

Home court

DAY at home. This season: DAY 0-0 at home, L-MD 0-0 away

L-MDSmall

Three-pointers

L-MD hits 32.5% and allows 32.8%; DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 47.2% and 41.4% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: L-MD plays 69.3 a game (165th fastest), DAY 68.3 (213th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: L-MD 27.6%, DAY 26.9%. Defensive: L-MD 71.0%, DAY 71.2%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: L-MD 33%, DAY 31%. Transfers in: L-MD 5, DAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DAY -22.8	—
Total	—	147.1	—
Projected score	—	L-MD 62.2 · DAY 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAY -13.4	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	L-MD 27.7 · DAY 41.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
L-MD LWLWL	16-14	53%	8-8	—
DAY WLWWL	17-20	46%	8-10	—

Venue/role: L-MD away; DAY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
L-MD OOUUO	17-13	57%	10-20
DAY UUOOU	13-24	35%	25-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
L-MD	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
DAY	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Loyola MD

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ MAN	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs CCSU	No recent meeting

Dayton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ FSU	W97–69WO
Dec 12	vs USF	No recent meeting
Dec 15	vs RGV	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola MD

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L L L W L L L L L L W L L W L W W L W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L W W W L W L L L W L L W W W W L W W L W L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

U U U O O U O O O O O U U O U O U O U U O O O U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTOW	L 56-67	+8.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsNJIT	L 64-66	-10.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsSTO	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 16	@FAIR	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 19	@DUQ	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 170
Nov 21	@UK	L 46-88	+35.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 30	vsCOPP	W 95-84	-9.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@HAMP	L 71-93	+6.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 164
Dec 9	@VMI	L 70-86	-2.5	L −18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 13	vsMSM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 21	@GMU	L 79-86	+23.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	@AMER	L 69-84	+8.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	vsLAF	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	@ARMY	W 84-76	+4.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@BUCK	L 67-70	+6.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsCOLG	L 80-86	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 17	vsBU	W 74-57	+1.5	W +18.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 19	@LEH	L 81-88	+3.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsBUCK	W 67-62	-2.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	vsAMER	W 77-68	+4.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	@NAVY	L 71-87	+9.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 158
Feb 4	vsLEH	W 89-84	-2.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 173
Feb 7	@BU	L 69-78	+5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	@LAF	W 68-54	+3.5	W +17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 15	vsHC	W 83-73	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsARMY	L 77-87	-4.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 164
Feb 21	@COLG	L 98-101	+8.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 199
Feb 25	vsNAVY	L 51-78	+6.5	L −20.5	147.5	U 129
Feb 28	@HC	W 76-62	+1.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 138
Mar 5	@COLG	L 77-90	+6.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−2.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−12.5

STO

W 74-63

+4.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+2.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+0.5

L 46-88

−6.5

COPP

W 95-84

+1.5

HAMP

L 71-93

−15.5

VMI

L 70-86

−18.5

MSM

L 73-81

−5.5

GMU

L 79-86

+16.5

AMER

L 69-84

−6.5

LAF

L 64-79

−13.5

ARMY

W 84-76

+12.5

BUCK

L 67-70

+3.5

COLG

L 80-86

+2.5

W 74-57

+18.5

LEH

L 81-88

−3.5

BUCK

W 67-62

+2.5

AMER

W 77-68

+13.5

NAVY

L 71-87

−6.5

LEH

W 89-84

+2.5

L 69-78

−3.5

LAF

W 68-54

+17.5

W 83-73

+5.5

ARMY

L 77-87

−14.5

COLG

L 98-101

+5.5

NAVY

L 51-78

−20.5

W 76-62

+15.5

COLG

L 77-90

−6.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−18.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−9.5

STO

W 74-63

−1.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+31.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+19.5

L 46-88

−25.5

COPP

W 95-84

+35.5

HAMP

L 71-93

+21.5

VMI

L 70-86

+4.5

MSM

L 73-81

+2.5

GMU

L 79-86

+18.5

AMER

L 69-84

−1.5

LAF

L 64-79

−9.5

ARMY

W 84-76

+13.5

BUCK

L 67-70

−6.5

COLG

L 80-86

+15.5

W 74-57

−17.5

LEH

L 81-88

+19.5

BUCK

W 67-62

−18.5

AMER

W 77-68

−2.5

NAVY

L 71-87

+14.5

LEH

W 89-84

+23.5

L 69-78

+1.5

LAF

W 68-54

−25.5

W 83-73

+9.5

ARMY

L 77-87

+14.5

COLG

L 98-101

+48.5

NAVY

L 51-78

−18.5

W 76-62

−13.5

COLG

L 77-90

+11.5

over 17under 13avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dayton

37 games played

Straight up

25-12

68% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-24

35% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1268%

W W L W W W W L W L W W L W W W W W L L L L W L W W W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L W L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-2435%

U U U O U U O O O O U O U U U U U U U O O O U O U O U U U U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 15	vsBCU	W 91-82	-21.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@MARQ	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsNCCU	W 74-55	-29.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 27	vsGTWN	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsBYU	L 79-83	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 2	vsETSU	W 88-71	-11.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUVA	L 73-86	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	vsUNF	W 84-61	-30.5	L −7.5	159.5	U 145
Dec 16	vsFSU	W 97-69	-6.5	W +21.5	162.5	O 166
Dec 20	vsLIB	L 61-64	-9.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsFOR	W 63-56	-16.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 3	@LUC	W 70-68	-7.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsGW	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 13	@DUQ	W 71-65	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 16	vsLUC	W 78-51	-16.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 21	@LAS	L 64-67	-9.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 24	@JOES	L 74-81	-6.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 155
Jan 27	vsURI	L 76-81	-9.5	L −14.5	138.5	O 157
Jan 30	@SLU	L 71-102	+9.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 173
Feb 3	vsSBU	W 72-70	-7.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 6	@VCU	L 73-99	+8.5	L −17.5	147.5	O 172
Feb 15	vsDAV	W 70-59	-5.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 18	@GMU	W 82-67	+2.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 149
Feb 21	vsDUQ	W 78-66	-6.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 144
Feb 24	vsSLU	W 77-62	+3.5	W +18.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 27	@GW	W 68-66	+2.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 3	@RICH	W 65-60	-5.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsVCU	L 62-68	-1.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsSBU	W 68-63	-5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 14	vsSLU	W 70-69	+4.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 139
Mar 15	vsVCU	L 62-70	+3.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Mar 18	@BRAD	W 80-66	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	O 146
Mar 21	@UNCW	W 80-61	-3.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 141
Mar 25	vsILST	L 55-61	-7.5	L −13.5	140.5	U 116

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

BCU

W 91-82

−12.5

MARQ

W 77-71

+12.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−10.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+3.5

BYU

L 79-83

+5.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+5.5

UVA

L 73-86

−7.5

UNF

W 84-61

−7.5

FSU

W 97-69

+21.5

LIB

L 61-64

−12.5

FOR

W 63-56

−9.5

LUC

W 70-68

−5.5

W 79-72

+4.5

DUQ

W 71-65

+3.5

LUC

W 78-51

+10.5

LAS

L 64-67

−12.5

JOES

L 74-81

−13.5

URI

L 76-81

−14.5

SLU

L 71-102

−21.5

SBU

W 72-70

−5.5

VCU

L 73-99

−17.5

DAV

W 70-59

+5.5

GMU

W 82-67

+17.5

DUQ

W 78-66

+5.5

SLU

W 77-62

+18.5

W 68-66

+4.5

RICH

W 65-60

−0.5

VCU

L 62-68

−7.5

SBU

W 68-63

−0.5

SLU

W 70-69

+5.5

VCU

L 62-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 80-66

+11.5

UNCW

W 80-61

+15.5

ILST

L 55-61

−13.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

BCU

W 91-82

+24.5

MARQ

W 77-71

−3.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−17.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+17.5

BYU

L 79-83

+11.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+18.5

UVA

L 73-86

+11.5

UNF

W 84-61

−14.5

FSU

W 97-69

+3.5

LIB

L 61-64

−17.5

FOR

W 63-56

−20.5

LUC

W 70-68

−2.5

W 79-72

−3.5

DUQ

W 71-65

−16.5

LUC

W 78-51

−12.5

LAS

L 64-67

−6.5

JOES

L 74-81

+15.5

URI

L 76-81

+18.5

SLU

L 71-102

+21.5

SBU

W 72-70

−2.5

VCU

L 73-99

+24.5

DAV

W 70-59

−11.5

GMU

W 82-67

+11.5

DUQ

W 78-66

−4.5

SLU

W 77-62

−18.5

W 68-66

−18.5

RICH

W 65-60

−19.5

VCU

L 62-68

−16.5

SBU

W 68-63

−10.5

SLU

W 70-69

−6.5

VCU

L 62-70

−7.5

BRAD

W 80-66

+4.5

UNCW

W 80-61

+2.5

ILST

L 55-61

−24.5

over 13under 24avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Dayton has the better starters

Position by position: Loyola MD 0, Dayton 3, even 2

Loyola MDBetterDayton

G T. Cicero5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53

Even

G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63

G C. Berg-McLean3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21

DAYBig

G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78

F S. Springer4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 4

DAYBig

F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65

F S. Emenalo3.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11

DAYBig

F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

F D. Harrison TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63

Loyola MDBetterDayton

L-MD offense307th of 366 · -9.5

DAYBig

DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4

L-MD defense313th of 366 · -8.1

DAYBig

DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7

Backcourt-1.4 · 2 players

DAYSmall

Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.7 · 3 players

DAYBig

Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players

Bench-3.1 · 5 players

DAYBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestL-MD betterDAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Loyola MD

Guards

T. Cicero14 minC. Berg-McLean14 minM. Ortega8 min · TRL. RickettsNewR. LongNewS. BiegNew

Forwards

S. Springer17 minS. Emenalo15 minD. Harrison12 min · TRE. Barnes8 minM. Hagedorn7 min · TRA. Huguet7 min · TR

Dayton

Guards

Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min

Forwards

G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

L-MD73.7 #212

DAY74.1 #193

Points per possession

L-MD1.06 #227

DAY1.09 #167

Pace (possessions)

L-MD69.3 #165

DAY68.3 #213

Shooting

Effective FG%

L-MD50.4 #219

DAY51.6 #168

3-point %

L-MD32.5 #251

DAY33.9 #182

3-point attempt rate

L-MD47.2 #30

DAY41.4 #142

Free throw rate

L-MD29.9 #312

DAY46.1 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

L-MD15.4 #101

DAY16.9 #198

Offensive rebound rate

L-MD27.6 #279

DAY26.9 #298

Assists per game

L-MD12.6 #246

DAY14.2 #134

Defense

Points allowed

L-MD78.5 #280

DAY69.3 #50

Points allowed per possession

L-MD1.14 #304

DAY1.01 #37

Opponent effective FG%

L-MD54.7 #321

DAY51.0 #164

Opponent 3-point %

L-MD32.8 #106

DAY35.4 #270

Turnovers forced

L-MD15.4 #261

DAY21.0 #11

Defensive rebound rate

L-MD71.0 #103

DAY71.2 #94

Steals per game

L-MD6.1 #221

DAY8.2 #31

Blocks per game

L-MD3.4 #156

DAY3.9 #90

L-MD		DAY
Scoring
73.7 #212	Points per game	74.1 #193
1.06 #227	Points per possession	1.09 #167
69.3 #165	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #213
Shooting
50.4 #219	Effective FG%	51.6 #168
32.5 #251	3-point %	33.9 #182
47.2 #30	3-point attempt rate	41.4 #142
29.9 #312	Free throw rate	46.1 #2
Possessions
15.4 #101	Turnover rate	16.9 #198
27.6 #279	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #298
12.6 #246	Assists per game	14.2 #134
Defense
78.5 #280	Points allowed	69.3 #50
1.14 #304	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #37
54.7 #321	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #164
32.8 #106	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #270
15.4 #261	Turnovers forced	21.0 #11
71.0 #103	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #94
6.1 #221	Steals per game	8.2 #31
3.4 #156	Blocks per game	3.9 #90

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Loyola MD

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Colgate77–90
W@ Holy Cross76–62
Lvs Navy51–78
L@ Colgate98–101
Lvs Army77–87

A week or more of rest.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois St55–61
W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
W@ Bradley80–66
Lvs VCU62–70
Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Dayton Flyers

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola MD

Dayton

Dayton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Loyola MD

Dayton