1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. UNI vs CLT
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Northern Iowa Panthers vs Charlotte 49ers

Suncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site
#131UNINorthern Iowa
vs
#141CLTCharlotte
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNIThis seasonCLT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNI 71–69 · win probability UNI 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNI has more of the edges

UNI 4, CLT 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNIBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNI 14.5%, CLT 18.1%. Forced: UNI 18.0%, CLT 13.6%
CLTSmall
UNI offense vs CLT defense
Offense 204th of 366 against a defense 129th, on the model’s ratings
UNISmall
CLT offense vs UNI defense
Offense 164th of 366 against a defense 92nd, on the model’s ratings
UNISmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNI 53.8 and allows 47.5; CLT 53.4 and allows 50.9
UNISmall
Three-pointers
UNI hits 34.7% and allows 29.1%; CLT hits 35.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 39.1% and 45.4% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNI 25.6, CLT 36.4. Allowed: UNI 29.6, CLT 36.2
Context
Schedule so far
UNI has played the 133rd-hardest schedule, CLT the 113th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: UNI plays 63.9 a game (361st fastest), CLT 65.5 (331st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNI 21.8%, CLT 33.9%. Defensive: UNI 73.5%, CLT 67.5%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNI 10%, CLT 10%. Transfers in: UNI 5, CLT 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNI -2.4—
Total—139.7—
Projected score—UNI 71.1 · CLT 68.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNI -1.6—
1H total65.4—
1H projected scoreUNI 33.5 · CLT 31.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Charlotte has the better starters

Position by position: Northern Iowa 2, Charlotte 3, even 0
Northern IowaBetterCharlotte
G T. McCubbin TR9.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 21
CLTBig
G D. Finister TR14.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
G G. Uelmen TR17.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90
UNISmall
G K. Tillery TR3.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63
G C. Vis TR5.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
CLTSmall
F D. Grant TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 71
F I. Johnson-Arigu TR10.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 67
UNISmall
F A. Conyers7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37
F I. Smikle TR2.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
CLTBig
F J. Fort TR3.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 49
Northern IowaBetterCharlotte
UNI offense204th of 366 · -6.3
CLTSmall
CLT defense129th of 366 · -2.3
UNI defense92nd of 366 · -0.3
UNISmall
CLT offense164th of 366 · -5.0
Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players
CLTSmall
Backcourt+2.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Bench-1.6 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUNI betterCLT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Northern Iowa
Guards
T. McCubbin30 min · TRG. Uelmen29 min · TRC. Vis15 min · TRG. Hutchins7 minR. BornNewC. CourbatNew
Forwards
I. Johnson-Arigu22 min · TRI. Smikle14 min · TRK. Pock12 minJ. WilsonNewJ. IsebaertNewW. GerdesNew
Charlotte
Guards
D. Finister33 min · TRK. Tillery12 min · TRJ. Rodriguez-Stegemeijer8 min · TRR. EvansNewF. OgucheNewL. BarnesNew
Forwards
D. Grant24 min · TRA. Conyers20 minJ. Fort14 min · TRT. McKinley12 min · TRM. AllenNew
Centers
P. Marshall11 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNICLT
Scoring
68.6 #303Points per game73.0 #225
1.08 #198Points per possession1.12 #105
63.9 #361Pace (possessions)65.5 #331
Shooting
53.8 #73Effective FG%53.4 #86
34.7 #1363-point %35.2 #101
39.1 #1893-point attempt rate45.4 #58
25.6 #362Free throw rate36.4 #140
Possessions
14.5 #41Turnover rate18.1 #278
21.8 #357Offensive rebound rate33.9 #71
14.6 #114Assists per game12.9 #217
Defense
62.5 #2Points allowed74.3 #164
0.98 #12Points allowed per possession1.13 #291
47.5 #31Opponent effective FG%50.9 #152
29.1 #3Opponent 3-point %33.5 #153
18.0 #97Turnovers forced13.6 #345
73.5 #24Defensive rebound rate67.5 #283
6.2 #212Steals per game4.5 #353
3.1 #211Blocks per game3.5 #150
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Northern Iowa

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St John's53–79
  • Wvs UIC84–69
  • Wvs Bradley73–69
  • Wvs Illinois St74–52
  • Wvs Evansville68–59

A week or more of rest.

Charlotte

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs South Florida64–86
  • Wvs UAB83–78
  • Wvs Tulane74–60
  • L@ South Florida60–83
  • Lvs UAB74–80

A week or more of rest.