Northern Iowa Panthers at Kansas Jayhawks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 8:00 PM ETAllen Fieldhouse · at Kansas

#16KUKansas AP #17

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Northern Iowa and Kansas
UNI	This season	KU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KU 83–61 · win probability KU 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KU has more of the edges

UNI 1, KU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

KUBig

UNI offense vs KU defense

Offense 204th of 366 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

UNIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNI 14.5%, KU 15.6%. Forced: UNI 18.0%, KU 13.8%

Context

Schedule so far

UNI has played the 133rd-hardest schedule, KU the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: UNI plays 63.9 a game (361st fastest), KU 68.8 (193rd). Faster games mean more points

KUSmall

KU offense vs UNI defense

Offense 17th of 366 against a defense 92nd, on the model’s ratings

KUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNI 25.6, KU 32.2. Allowed: UNI 29.6, KU 27.4

KUSmall

Home court

KU at home. This season: KU 0-0 at home, UNI 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNI 53.8 and allows 47.5; KU 51.2 and allows 45.0

Even

Three-pointers

UNI hits 34.7% and allows 29.1%; KU hits 34.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 39.1% and 35.2% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNI 10%, KU 9%. Transfers in: UNI 5, KU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNI 21.8%, KU 29.3%. Defensive: UNI 73.5%, KU 70.1%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	KU -22.4	—
Total	—	144.3	—
Projected score	—	UNI 60.9 · KU 83.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KU -13.2	—
1H total	67.5	—
1H projected score	UNI 27.1 · KU 40.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNI LWLWL	19-16	54%	8-4	—
KU WWLLW	21-14	60%	10-5	—

Venue/role: UNI away; KU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNI UUOOU	14-21	40%	22-13
KU OOUUU	11-24	31%	24-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNI	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
KU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northern Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	@ UCI	W70–69WO

Kansas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs MIZ	W80–60WU
Dec 12	@ CONN	L56–61LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northern Iowa

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-21

40% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

W W W W W W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W L W L W W L L W W W W L W L L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-2140%

U U U U O U U O U U U U O U O O O U U O U U U O O O O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 18	vsNIU	W 70-57	-19.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 22	@UCI	W 70-69	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsLUC	W 72-51	-8.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsTLSA	L 60-63	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsWICH	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsOAK	W 75-63	-8.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 17	@UIC	W 60-54	-5.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 114
Dec 22	@SMC	L 58-63	+11.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 29	vsVAL	W 58-48	-8.5	W +1.5	131.5	U 106
Jan 1	vsINST	W 75-66	-10.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@EVAN	W 62-48	-4.5	W +9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsBEL	L 65-78	-2.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 143
Jan 10	@BRAD	L 69-75	+4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 144
Jan 13	vsUIC	L 61-69	-6.5	L −14.5	128.5	O 130
Jan 17	@VAL	L 44-54	-1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 98
Jan 21	@ILST	L 54-59	+6.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	vsMUR	W 81-76	+1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 28	@SIU	L 50-65	-1.5	L −16.5	130.5	U 115
Jan 31	vsEVAN	W 71-55	-11.5	W +4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 6	vsBRAD	W 61-49	-3.5	W +8.5	134.5	U 110
Feb 9	@MUR	W 89-60	+4.5	W +33.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 12	@BEL	L 86-91	+4.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 177
Feb 15	vsDRKE	W 86-62	-8.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	@INST	W 81-60	-5.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsSIU	L 57-59	-6.5	L −8.5	134.5	U 116
Feb 25	vsILST	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	@DRKE	W 75-53	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsEVAN	W 68-59	-13.5	L −4.5	127.5	U 127
Mar 6	vsILST	W 74-52	-1.5	W +20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsBRAD	W 73-69	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	O 142
Mar 8	vsUIC	W 84-69	-2.5	W +12.5	125.5	O 153
Mar 20	vsSJU	L 53-79	+10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

NIU

W 70-57

−6.5

UCI

W 70-69

+3.5

LUC

W 72-51

+12.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−5.5

WICH

L 69-74

−6.5

OAK

W 75-63

+3.5

UIC

W 60-54

+0.5

SMC

L 58-63

+6.5

VAL

W 58-48

+1.5

INST

W 75-66

−1.5

EVAN

W 62-48

+9.5

BEL

L 65-78

−15.5

BRAD

L 69-75

−1.5

UIC

L 61-69

−14.5

VAL

L 44-54

−11.5

ILST

L 54-59

+1.5

MUR

W 81-76

+6.5

SIU

L 50-65

−16.5

EVAN

W 71-55

+4.5

BRAD

W 61-49

+8.5

MUR

W 89-60

+33.5

BEL

L 86-91

−0.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+15.5

INST

W 81-60

+15.5

SIU

L 57-59

−8.5

ILST

L 69-71

−6.5

DRKE

W 75-53

+17.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−4.5

ILST

W 74-52

+20.5

BRAD

W 73-69

−0.5

UIC

W 84-69

+12.5

SJU

L 53-79

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

NIU

W 70-57

−19.5

UCI

W 70-69

+0.5

LUC

W 72-51

−11.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−14.5

WICH

L 69-74

+7.5

OAK

W 75-63

−11.5

UIC

W 60-54

−19.5

SMC

L 58-63

−11.5

VAL

W 58-48

−25.5

INST

W 75-66

+5.5

EVAN

W 62-48

−21.5

BEL

L 65-78

+5.5

BRAD

L 69-75

+12.5

UIC

L 61-69

+1.5

VAL

L 44-54

−32.5

ILST

L 54-59

−19.5

MUR

W 81-76

+11.5

SIU

L 50-65

−15.5

EVAN

W 71-55

−2.5

BRAD

W 61-49

−24.5

MUR

W 89-60

+3.5

BEL

L 86-91

+38.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+9.5

INST

W 81-60

+4.5

SIU

L 57-59

−18.5

ILST

L 69-71

+7.5

DRKE

W 75-53

−9.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−0.5

ILST

W 74-52

−4.5

BRAD

W 73-69

+14.5

UIC

W 84-69

+27.5

SJU

L 53-79

−1.5

over 14under 21avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

21-14

60% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

W L W W L W W W L W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W L W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1460%

W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W L W L W L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2431%

U O U U U U U O U U O U O U O O U U U U O U U O U U O U U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGB	W 94-51	-30.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@UNC	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsAMCC	W 77-46	-25.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 123
Nov 15	vsPRIN	W 76-57	-22.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsDUKE	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 24	vsND	W 71-61	-5.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsSYR	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsTENN	W 81-76	+7.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 2	vsCONN	L 56-61	+3.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 117
Dec 7	vsMIZ	W 80-60	-5.5	W +14.5	150.5	U 140
Dec 13	@NCSU	W 77-76	+1.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 153
Dec 16	vsTOW	W 73-49	-14.5	W +9.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 22	vsDAV	W 90-61	-14.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 3	@UCF	L 75-81	-4.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 6	vsTCU	W 104-100	-6.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 204
Jan 10	@WVU	L 75-86	-2.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 13	vsISU	W 84-63	+3.5	W +24.5	152.5	U 147
Jan 16	vsBAY	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	156.5	U 142
Jan 20	@COLO	W 75-69	-4.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 144
Jan 24	@KSU	W 86-62	-4.5	W +19.5	158.5	U 148
Jan 31	vsBYU	W 90-82	-2.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 172
Feb 2	@TTU	W 64-61	+3.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsUTAH	W 71-59	-18.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 130
Feb 9	vsARIZ	W 82-78	+5.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ISU	L 56-74	+7.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 130
Feb 18	@OKST	W 81-69	-7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsCIN	L 68-84	-8.5	L −24.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 23	vsHOU	W 69-56	+2.5	W +15.5	138.5	U 125
Feb 28	@ARIZ	L 61-84	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	@ASU	L 60-70	-5.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsKSU	W 104-85	-17.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 189
Mar 12	vsTCU	W 78-73	-4.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 151
Mar 13	vsHOU	L 47-69	+5.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 116
Mar 20	vsCBU	W 68-60	-14.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 128
Mar 22	vsSJU	L 65-67	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-51

+12.5

UNC

L 74-87

−10.5

AMCC

W 77-46

+5.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−3.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−1.5

W 71-61

+4.5

SYR

W 71-60

+6.5

TENN

W 81-76

+12.5

CONN

L 56-61

−1.5

MIZ

W 80-60

+14.5

NCSU

W 77-76

+2.5

TOW

W 73-49

+9.5

DAV

W 90-61

+14.5

UCF

L 75-81

−10.5

TCU

W 104-100

−2.5

WVU

L 75-86

−13.5

ISU

W 84-63

+24.5

BAY

W 80-62

+10.5

COLO

W 75-69

+1.5

KSU

W 86-62

+19.5

BYU

W 90-82

+5.5

TTU

W 64-61

+6.5

UTAH

W 71-59

−6.5

ARIZ

W 82-78

+9.5

ISU

L 56-74

−10.5

OKST

W 81-69

+4.5

CIN

L 68-84

−24.5

HOU

W 69-56

+15.5

ARIZ

L 61-84

−13.5

ASU

L 60-70

−15.5

KSU

W 104-85

+1.5

TCU

W 78-73

+0.5

HOU

L 47-69

−16.5

CBU

W 68-60

−6.5

SJU

L 65-67

+1.5

covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-51

−7.5

UNC

L 74-87

+1.5

AMCC

W 77-46

−22.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−11.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−5.5

W 71-61

−11.5

SYR

W 71-60

−13.5

TENN

W 81-76

+16.5

CONN

L 56-61

−24.5

MIZ

W 80-60

−10.5

NCSU

W 77-76

+4.5

TOW

W 73-49

−15.5

DAV

W 90-61

+11.5

UCF

L 75-81

−1.5

TCU

W 104-100

+60.5

WVU

L 75-86

+21.5

ISU

W 84-63

−5.5

BAY

W 80-62

−14.5

COLO

W 75-69

−11.5

KSU

W 86-62

−10.5

BYU

W 90-82

+12.5

TTU

W 64-61

−30.5

UTAH

W 71-59

−20.5

ARIZ

W 82-78

+7.5

ISU

L 56-74

−17.5

OKST

W 81-69

−8.5

CIN

L 68-84

+12.5

HOU

W 69-56

−13.5

ARIZ

L 61-84

−6.5

ASU

L 60-70

−21.5

KSU

W 104-85

+31.5

TCU

W 78-73

+4.5

HOU

L 47-69

−23.5

CBU

W 68-60

−14.5

SJU

L 65-67

−12.5

over 11under 24avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas has the better starters

Position by position: Northern Iowa 0, Kansas 4, even 1

Northern IowaBetterKansas

G T. McCubbin TR9.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 21

KUBig

G L. Blyden TR16.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.5 ast Score 85

G G. Uelmen TR17.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

Even

G D. Parker TR18.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94

G C. Vis TR5.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

KUBig

F K. Dawes TR12.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91

F I. Johnson-Arigu TR10.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 67

KUSmall

F T. Kaufman-Renn TR14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 98

F I. Smikle TR2.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14

KUBig

C C. Reeves TR11 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 94

Northern IowaBetterKansas

UNI offense204th of 366 · -6.3

KUBig

KU defense15th of 366 · +6.3

UNI defense92nd of 366 · -0.3

KUSmall

KU offense17th of 366 · +8.6

Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players

KUBig

Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players

KUBig

Frontcourt+13.0 · 3 players

Bench-1.6 · 2 players

KUSmall

Bench+0.1 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUNI betterKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Northern Iowa

Guards

T. McCubbin30 min · TRG. Uelmen29 min · TRC. Vis15 min · TRG. Hutchins7 minR. BornNewC. CourbatNew

Forwards

I. Johnson-Arigu22 min · TRI. Smikle14 min · TRK. Pock12 minJ. WilsonNewJ. IsebaertNewW. GerdesNew

Kansas

Guards

L. Blyden34 min · TRD. Parker30 min · TRK. Rosario12 minW. Thengvall2 minT. StokesNewT. PerryNew

Forwards

K. Dawes31 min · TRT. Kaufman-Renn28 min · TRD. AdkinsNewA. RichmondNewG. MordiniNew

Centers

C. Reeves21 min · TRP. Mbiya5 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNI68.6 #303

KU75.1 #161

Points per possession

UNI1.08 #198

KU1.09 #152

Pace (possessions)

UNI63.9 #361

KU68.8 #193

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNI53.8 #73

KU51.2 #186

3-point %

UNI34.7 #136

KU34.6 #139

3-point attempt rate

UNI39.1 #189

KU35.2 #268

Free throw rate

UNI25.6 #362

KU32.2 #255

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNI14.5 #41

KU15.6 #111

Offensive rebound rate

UNI21.8 #357

KU29.3 #227

Assists per game

UNI14.6 #114

KU13.9 #150

Defense

Points allowed

UNI62.5 #2

KU69.1 #47

Points allowed per possession

UNI0.98 #12

KU1.00 #28

Opponent effective FG%

UNI47.5 #31

KU45.0 #2

Opponent 3-point %

UNI29.1 #3

KU30.6 #24

Turnovers forced

UNI18.0 #97

KU13.8 #340

Defensive rebound rate

UNI73.5 #24

KU70.1 #152

Steals per game

UNI6.2 #212

KU5.4 #310

Blocks per game

UNI3.1 #211

KU5.8 #6

UNI		KU
Scoring
68.6 #303	Points per game	75.1 #161
1.08 #198	Points per possession	1.09 #152
63.9 #361	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #193
Shooting
53.8 #73	Effective FG%	51.2 #186
34.7 #136	3-point %	34.6 #139
39.1 #189	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #268
25.6 #362	Free throw rate	32.2 #255
Possessions
14.5 #41	Turnover rate	15.6 #111
21.8 #357	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #227
14.6 #114	Assists per game	13.9 #150
Defense
62.5 #2	Points allowed	69.1 #47
0.98 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.00 #28
47.5 #31	Opponent effective FG%	45.0 #2
29.1 #3	Opponent 3-point %	30.6 #24
18.0 #97	Turnovers forced	13.8 #340
73.5 #24	Defensive rebound rate	70.1 #152
6.2 #212	Steals per game	5.4 #310
3.1 #211	Blocks per game	5.8 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Northern Iowa

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St John's53–79
Wvs UIC84–69
Wvs Bradley73–69
Wvs Illinois St74–52
Wvs Evansville68–59

A week or more of rest.

Kansas

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St John's65–67
Wvs CA Baptist68–60
Lvs Houston47–69
Wvs TCU78–73
Wvs Kansas St104–85

A week or more of rest.

Northern Iowa Panthers at Kansas Jayhawks

What could decide it: KU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Northern Iowa

Kansas

Kansas has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Northern Iowa

Kansas