Alcorn State Braves at Iowa State Cyclones: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 8:00 PM ETHilton Coliseum · at Iowa State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alcorn St and Iowa State
ALCN	This season	ISU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ISU 94–51 · win probability ISU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

ALCN 0, ISU 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ISUBig

ALCN offense vs ISU defense

Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

ISUBig

ISU offense vs ALCN defense

Offense 26th of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings

ISUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; ISU 56.2 and allows 49.8

ISUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, ISU 35.1%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, ISU 71.4%

Context

Schedule so far

ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, ISU the 38th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ISUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, ISU 14.9%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, ISU 22.6%

ISUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, ISU 34.5. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, ISU 28.1

ISUBig

Three-pointers

ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; ISU hits 38.3% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 33.7% and 38.8% of their shots

ISUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, ISU 57%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, ISU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ISUSmall

Home court

ISU at home. This season: ISU 0-0 at home, ALCN 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), ISU 68.5 (204th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ISU -43.4	—
Total	—	145.1	—
Projected score	—	ALCN 50.8 · ISU 94.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ISU -25.7	—
1H total	67.9	—
1H projected score	ALCN 21.1 · ISU 46.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN LLLWL	18-14	56%	11-9	—
ISU WWWWL	22-15	59%	9-8	—

Venue/role: ALCN away; ISU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN UUUOU	15-17	47%	9-23
ISU UOOUU	15-22	41%	29-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
ISU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alcorn St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ FGCU	No recent meeting

Iowa State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs PUR	W81–58WU
Dec 10	@ IOWA	W66–62LU
Dec 13	vs NCCU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ALCN 0–1 ISUISU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ALCN 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	ALCN 68 @ ISU 132	ISU -42.5	ISU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

32 games played

Straight up

9-23

28% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2328%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L W L L W W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

L W L W L W W W L L L L W W L W W W W W L W W W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O U O U O U O O O O U O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 23	@OU	L 53-72	+31.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsINST	W 81-74	+12.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 29	@LT	L 58-83	+16.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@ISU	L 68-132	+42.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 19	@BAY	L 56-113	+35.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 169
Dec 29	@MISS	L 43-79	+28.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 122
Jan 3	@JKST	L 86-89	+5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@AAMU	W 64-62	+9.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	@ALST	L 66-81	+9.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsTXSO	L 71-72	+1.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 143
Jan 19	vsPV	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 151
Jan 24	@FAMU	L 58-66	+8.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 26	@BCU	L 73-82	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsSOU	W 78-73	+7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 2	vsGRAM	L 50-74	+5.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 7	@UAPB	L 77-84	+7.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 161
Feb 9	@MVSU	W 74-66	-5.5	W +2.5	140.5	U 140
Feb 14	vsBCU	W 57-55	+8.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 112
Feb 16	vsFAMU	L 78-86	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 164
Feb 21	vsJKST	W 83-65	+1.5	W +19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@TXSO	L 87-92	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 179
Feb 28	@PV	L 51-72	+4.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 123
Mar 3	vsMVSU	W 67-64	-9.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 131
Mar 5	vsUAPB	L 48-83	+1.5	L −33.5	145.5	U 131
Mar 9	vsALST	W 77-65	+7.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 10	vsPV	L 56-65	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

L 53-72

+12.5

INST

W 81-74

+19.5

L 58-83

−8.5

ISU

L 68-132

−21.5

BAY

L 56-113

−21.5

MISS

L 43-79

−7.5

JKST

L 86-89

+2.5

AAMU

W 64-62

+11.5

ALST

L 66-81

−5.5

TXSO

L 71-72

+0.5

W 76-75

+3.5

FAMU

L 58-66

+0.5

BCU

L 73-82

+4.5

SOU

W 78-73

+12.5

GRAM

L 50-74

−18.5

UAPB

L 77-84

+0.5

MVSU

W 74-66

+2.5

BCU

W 57-55

+10.5

FAMU

L 78-86

−5.5

JKST

W 83-65

+19.5

TXSO

L 87-92

+0.5

L 51-72

−16.5

MVSU

W 67-64

−6.5

UAPB

L 48-83

−33.5

ALST

W 77-65

+19.5

L 56-65

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

L 53-72

−35.5

INST

W 81-74

+2.5

L 58-83

+3.5

ISU

L 68-132

+48.5

BAY

L 56-113

+8.5

MISS

L 43-79

−26.5

JKST

L 86-89

+29.5

AAMU

W 64-62

−14.5

ALST

L 66-81

−4.5

TXSO

L 71-72

−3.5

W 76-75

−1.5

FAMU

L 58-66

−17.5

BCU

L 73-82

+7.5

SOU

W 78-73

+3.5

GRAM

L 50-74

−19.5

UAPB

L 77-84

+15.5

MVSU

W 74-66

−0.5

BCU

W 57-55

−32.5

FAMU

L 78-86

+26.5

JKST

W 83-65

−1.5

TXSO

L 87-92

+33.5

L 51-72

−27.5

MVSU

W 67-64

−8.5

UAPB

L 48-83

−14.5

ALST

W 77-65

+0.5

L 56-65

−21.5

over 15under 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iowa State

37 games played

Straight up

29-8

78% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

29-878%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W L W W L W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W W W L L W W W W L L L L W W L L L W W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

U O O O O U O O U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U U U O U U O U O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFDU	W 88-50	-37.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 138
Nov 6	vsGRAM	W 102-62	-33.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 164
Nov 10	vsMSST	W 96-80	-5.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 17	vsSTO	W 96-57	-40.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Nov 24	vsSJU	W 83-82	-2.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 25	vsCREI	W 78-60	-9.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 26	vsSYR	W 95-64	-10.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 3	vsALCN	W 132-68	-42.5	W +21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 6	@PUR	W 81-58	+4.5	W +27.5	154.5	U 139
Dec 11	vsIOWA	W 66-62	-11.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 14	vsEIU	W 78-53	-43.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 21	vsLBSU	W 91-60	-37.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 151
Dec 29	vsHCU	W 89-61	-35.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 2	vsWVU	W 80-59	-16.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 139
Jan 7	@BAY	W 70-60	-3.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsOKST	W 83-71	-19.5	L −7.5	165.5	U 154
Jan 13	@KU	L 63-84	-3.5	L −24.5	152.5	U 147
Jan 17	@CIN	L 70-79	-5.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 20	vsUCF	W 87-57	-14.5	W +15.5	156.5	U 144
Jan 24	@OKST	W 84-71	-10.5	W +2.5	162.5	U 155
Jan 29	vsCOLO	W 97-67	-17.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 164
Feb 1	@KSU	W 95-61	-12.5	W +21.5	156.5	U 156
Feb 7	vsBAY	W 72-69	-14.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 141
Feb 10	@TCU	L 55-62	-7.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 117
Feb 14	vsKU	W 74-56	-7.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 130
Feb 16	vsHOU	W 70-67	-2.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 21	@BYU	L 69-79	-2.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 148
Feb 24	@UTAH	W 75-59	-14.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 28	vsTTU	L 73-82	-10.5	L −19.5	145.5	O 155
Mar 2	@ARIZ	L 57-73	+7.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsASU	W 86-65	-16.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 151
Mar 11	vsASU	W 91-42	-13.5	W +35.5	148.5	U 133
Mar 12	vsTTU	W 75-53	-7.5	W +14.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsARIZ	L 80-82	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 20	vsTNST	W 108-74	-24.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 182
Mar 22	vsUK	W 82-63	-5.5	W +13.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 27	vsTENN	L 62-76	-2.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FDU

W 88-50

+0.5

GRAM

W 102-62

+6.5

MSST

W 96-80

+10.5

STO

W 96-57

−1.5

SJU

W 83-82

−1.5

CREI

W 78-60

+8.5

SYR

W 95-64

+20.5

ALCN

W 132-68

+21.5

PUR

W 81-58

+27.5

IOWA

W 66-62

−7.5

EIU

W 78-53

−18.5

LBSU

W 91-60

−6.5

HCU

W 89-61

−7.5

WVU

W 80-59

+4.5

BAY

W 70-60

+6.5

OKST

W 83-71

−7.5

L 63-84

−24.5

CIN

L 70-79

−14.5

UCF

W 87-57

+15.5

OKST

W 84-71

+2.5

COLO

W 97-67

+12.5

KSU

W 95-61

+21.5

BAY

W 72-69

−11.5

TCU

L 55-62

−14.5

W 74-56

+10.5

HOU

W 70-67

+0.5

BYU

L 69-79

−12.5

UTAH

W 75-59

+1.5

TTU

L 73-82

−19.5

ARIZ

L 57-73

−8.5

ASU

W 86-65

+4.5

ASU

W 91-42

+35.5

TTU

W 75-53

+14.5

ARIZ

L 80-82

+1.5

TNST

W 108-74

+9.5

W 82-63

+13.5

TENN

L 62-76

−16.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FDU

W 88-50

−9.5

GRAM

W 102-62

+19.5

MSST

W 96-80

+25.5

STO

W 96-57

+6.5

SJU

W 83-82

+6.5

CREI

W 78-60

−14.5

SYR

W 95-64

+13.5

ALCN

W 132-68

+48.5

PUR

W 81-58

−15.5

IOWA

W 66-62

−13.5

EIU

W 78-53

−13.5

LBSU

W 91-60

+1.5

HCU

W 89-61

+4.5

WVU

W 80-59

−3.5

BAY

W 70-60

−25.5

OKST

W 83-71

−11.5

L 63-84

−5.5

CIN

L 70-79

+7.5

UCF

W 87-57

−12.5

OKST

W 84-71

−7.5

COLO

W 97-67

+11.5

KSU

W 95-61

−0.5

BAY

W 72-69

−10.5

TCU

L 55-62

−30.5

W 74-56

−17.5

HOU

W 70-67

+2.5

BYU

L 69-79

−6.5

UTAH

W 75-59

−10.5

TTU

L 73-82

+9.5

ARIZ

L 57-73

−19.5

ASU

W 86-65

+2.5

ASU

W 91-42

−15.5

TTU

W 75-53

−15.5

ARIZ

L 80-82

+17.5

TNST

W 108-74

+34.5

W 82-63

−1.5

TENN

L 62-76

−1.5

over 15under 22avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Iowa State has the better starters

Position by position: Alcorn St 0, Iowa State 2, even 3

Alcorn StBetterIowa State

G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G R. Prather TR16.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.7 ast Score 84

G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G L. Bond TR12.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Lipsey13.5 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 98

F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4

ISUBig

G J. Johnson TR16.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98

C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45

ISUSmall

G K. Toure8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79

Alcorn StBetterIowa State

ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5

ISUBig

ISU defense6th of 366 · +9.3

ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9

ISUBig

ISU offense26th of 366 · +7.0

Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players

ISUBig

Backcourt+14.4 · 5 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

ISUBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestALCN betterISU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alcorn St

Guards

T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew

Forwards

M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew

Centers

C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew

Iowa State

Guards

R. Prather35 min · TRL. Bond33 min · TRT. Lipsey32 minJ. Johnson31 min · TRK. Toure25 minJ. Batemon16 min

Forwards

T. Singleton25 min · TRB. Buchanan25 minT. Manning21 min · TRD. Pleta11 minX. Mitchell3 minD. Rinaldo-KomlanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ALCN66.9 #335

ISU82.0 #32

Points per possession

ALCN0.96 #352

ISU1.19 #20

Pace (possessions)

ALCN69.7 #138

ISU68.5 #204

Shooting

Effective FG%

ALCN47.7 #320

ISU56.2 #20

3-point %

ALCN33.3 #209

ISU38.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

ALCN33.7 #303

ISU38.8 #196

Free throw rate

ALCN31.8 #259

ISU34.5 #194

Possessions

Turnover rate

ALCN19.6 #340

ISU14.9 #58

Offensive rebound rate

ALCN26.9 #297

ISU35.1 #45

Assists per game

ALCN11.1 #333

ISU17.4 #16

Defense

Points allowed

ALCN80.2 #322

ISU65.6 #9

Points allowed per possession

ALCN1.15 #324

ISU0.96 #4

Opponent effective FG%

ALCN55.0 #330

ISU49.8 #92

Opponent 3-point %

ALCN33.0 #120

ISU32.0 #63

Turnovers forced

ALCN18.1 #92

ISU22.6 #4

Defensive rebound rate

ALCN64.5 #347

ISU71.4 #85

Steals per game

ALCN7.7 #63

ISU9.0 #9

Blocks per game

ALCN3.4 #162

ISU2.6 #289

ALCN		ISU
Scoring
66.9 #335	Points per game	82.0 #32
0.96 #352	Points per possession	1.19 #20
69.7 #138	Pace (possessions)	68.5 #204
Shooting
47.7 #320	Effective FG%	56.2 #20
33.3 #209	3-point %	38.3 #12
33.7 #303	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #196
31.8 #259	Free throw rate	34.5 #194
Possessions
19.6 #340	Turnover rate	14.9 #58
26.9 #297	Offensive rebound rate	35.1 #45
11.1 #333	Assists per game	17.4 #16
Defense
80.2 #322	Points allowed	65.6 #9
1.15 #324	Points allowed per possession	0.96 #4
55.0 #330	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #92
33.0 #120	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #63
18.1 #92	Turnovers forced	22.6 #4
64.5 #347	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #85
7.7 #63	Steals per game	9.0 #9
3.4 #162	Blocks per game	2.6 #289

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View56–65
Wvs Alabama St77–65
Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Iowa State

29-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee62–76
Wvs Kentucky82–63
Wvs Tennessee St108–74
Lvs Arizona80–82
Wvs Texas Tech75–53

A week or more of rest.

Alcorn State Braves at Iowa State Cyclones

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

Iowa State

Iowa State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alcorn St

Iowa State