Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Indiana Hoosiers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 8:00 PM ETSimon Skjodt Assembly Hall · at Indiana · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rutgers and Indiana
RUTG	This season	IU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IU 81–73 · win probability IU 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

RUTG 3, IU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

IUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: RUTG 47.2 and allows 53.0; IU 56.1 and allows 49.0

IUBig

Three-pointers

RUTG hits 32.4% and allows 35.6%; IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 34.2% and 50.5% of their shots

RUTGSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: RUTG 36.3, IU 35.0. Allowed: RUTG 31.7, IU 37.0

RUTGSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RUTG 14.9%, IU 15.1%. Forced: RUTG 17.1%, IU 15.1%

RUTGSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RUTG 58%, IU 19%. Transfers in: RUTG 4, IU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

IUSmall

Home court

IU at home. This season: IU 0-0 at home, RUTG 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RUTG 29.7%, IU 26.9%. Defensive: RUTG 67.2%, IU 70.8%

Even

IU offense vs RUTG defense

Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 65th, on the model’s ratings

Even

RUTG offense vs IU defense

Offense 58th of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: RUTG plays 67.5 a game (254th fastest), IU 67.4 (260th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

RUTG has played the 50th-hardest schedule, IU the 48th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	IU -7.7	—
Total	—	153.3	—
Projected score	—	RUTG 72.8 · IU 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IU -4.4	—
1H total	71.7	—
1H projected score	RUTG 33.6 · IU 38	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG WWWLL	17-17	50%	6-5	—
IU LLWLL	14-18	44%	9-9	—

Venue/role: RUTG away; IU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OUOUU	19-15	56%	14-20
IU UUUOU	14-18	44%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
IU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rutgers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs MICH	L60–101LO
Dec 12	vs HALL	L59–81LO

Indiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs WIU	No recent meeting
Dec 7	@ IOWA	L57–74LU
Dec 12	vs UCF	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

RUTG 3–3 IUSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · IU has won the last 2 meetings · RUTG 3-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 23, 2025-26	IU 82 @ RUTG 59	RUTG +7.5	IU W
Jan 2, 2024-25	RUTG 74 @ IU 84	IU -7.5	IU W
Jan 9, 2023-24	IU 57 @ RUTG 66	RUTG -3.5	RUTG W
Feb 7, 2022-23	RUTG 60 @ IU 66	IU -4.5	IU W
Dec 3, 2022-23	IU 48 @ RUTG 63	RUTG +2.5	RUTG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rutgers

34 games played

Straight up

14-20

41% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-2041%

W W W W L L L W L L L W W L W L W L L L L L L L W W L L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1750%

W L L L L L W W L L L L L W W L W W W L W W L W W W L L W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1556%

U O O O U O U U U O O U U O O U O O U U O O O O U O O O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsRID	W 81-53	-18.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 10	vsME	W 72-60	-18.5	L −6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 14	vsLEH	W 84-72	-18.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsAMER	W 80-71	-16.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 21	vsCCSU	L 54-67	-15.5	L −28.5	137.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsTENN	L 60-85	+14.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsND	L 63-68	+6.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 27	vsUNLV	W 80-65	+4.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 2	vsPUR	L 65-81	+13.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 6	@MICH	L 60-101	+25.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 161
Dec 13	@HALL	L 59-81	+13.5	L −8.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 20	vsPENN	W 70-69	-11.5	L −10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsDSU	W 65-50	-20.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 115
Jan 2	vsOSU	L 73-80	+9.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 153
Jan 5	vsORE	W 88-85	+4.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 173
Jan 8	@ILL	L 55-81	+22.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 136
Jan 11	vsNU	W 77-75	+4.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 17	@WIS	L 87-96	+15.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 183
Jan 20	@IOWA	L 62-68	+17.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 130
Jan 23	vsIU	L 59-82	+7.5	L −15.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsMSU	L 79-88	+14.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 167
Jan 31	@USC	L 75-78	+11.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 3	@UCLA	L 66-98	+13.5	L −18.5	142.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsNEB	L 68-80	+12.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 15	vsMD	W 68-57	-2.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 125
Feb 18	@PSU	W 85-72	+4.5	W +17.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 21	@MINN	L 61-80	+8.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 24	vsWASH	L 72-79	+4.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 151
Mar 1	@MD	W 69-65	+4.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 134
Mar 5	@MSU	L 87-91	+20.5	W +16.5	141.5	O 178
Mar 8	vsPSU	W 74-62	-4.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 11	vsMINN	W 72-67	+6.5	W +11.5	135.5	O 139
Mar 12	vsUCLA	L 59-72	+10.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 131
Apr 2	vsCREI	L 69-82	+4.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 81-53

+9.5

W 72-60

−6.5

LEH

W 84-72

−6.5

AMER

W 80-71

−7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−28.5

TENN

L 60-85

−10.5

L 63-68

+1.5

UNLV

W 80-65

+19.5

PUR

L 65-81

−2.5

MICH

L 60-101

−15.5

HALL

L 59-81

−8.5

PENN

W 70-69

−10.5

DSU

W 65-50

−5.5

OSU

L 73-80

+2.5

ORE

W 88-85

+7.5

ILL

L 55-81

−3.5

W 77-75

+6.5

WIS

L 87-96

+6.5

IOWA

L 62-68

+11.5

L 59-82

−15.5

MSU

L 79-88

+5.5

USC

L 75-78

+8.5

UCLA

L 66-98

−18.5

NEB

L 68-80

+0.5

W 68-57

+8.5

PSU

W 85-72

+17.5

MINN

L 61-80

−10.5

WASH

L 72-79

−2.5

W 69-65

+8.5

MSU

L 87-91

+16.5

PSU

W 74-62

+7.5

MINN

W 72-67

+11.5

UCLA

L 59-72

−2.5

CREI

L 69-82

−8.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 81-53

−5.5

W 72-60

+1.5

LEH

W 84-72

+19.5

AMER

W 80-71

+7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−16.5

TENN

L 60-85

+3.5

L 63-68

−9.5

UNLV

W 80-65

−8.5

PUR

L 65-81

−0.5

MICH

L 60-101

+7.5

HALL

L 59-81

+3.5

PENN

W 70-69

−11.5

DSU

W 65-50

−20.5

OSU

L 73-80

+1.5

ORE

W 88-85

+33.5

ILL

L 55-81

−13.5

W 77-75

+7.5

WIS

L 87-96

+33.5

IOWA

L 62-68

−10.5

L 59-82

−6.5

MSU

L 79-88

+28.5

USC

L 75-78

+6.5

UCLA

L 66-98

+21.5

NEB

L 68-80

+2.5

W 68-57

−19.5

PSU

W 85-72

+8.5

MINN

L 61-80

+4.5

WASH

L 72-79

+11.5

W 69-65

−9.5

MSU

L 87-91

+36.5

PSU

W 74-62

−13.5

MINN

W 72-67

+3.5

UCLA

L 59-72

−10.5

CREI

L 69-82

−0.5

over 19under 15avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L W W W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O U U U O U O O U U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsAAMU	W 98-51	-30.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 9	vsMARQ	W 100-77	-3.5	W +19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsMILW	W 101-70	-24.5	W +6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 16	vsUIW	W 69-61	-28.5	L −20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsLIN	W 73-53	-32.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 25	vsKSU	W 86-69	-10.5	W +6.5	164.5	U 155
Nov 29	vsBCU	W 100-56	-29.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 156
Dec 3	@MINN	L 64-73	-7.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLOU	L 78-87	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 9	vsPSU	W 113-72	-14.5	W +26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	@UK	L 60-72	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsCHST	W 78-58	-38.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsSIE	W 81-60	-21.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 4	vsWASH	W 90-80	-9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@MD	W 84-66	-7.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsNEB	L 77-83	-4.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	@MSU	L 60-81	+6.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsIOWA	L 57-74	-3.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	@MICH	L 72-86	+15.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 23	@RUTG	W 82-59	-7.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsPUR	W 72-67	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 31	@UCLA	W 98-97	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	@USC	L 75-81	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsWIS	W 78-77	-3.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 9	vsORE	W 92-74	-10.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 15	@ILL	L 51-71	+8.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 20	@PUR	L 64-93	+11.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsNU	L 68-72	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 1	vsMSU	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsMINN	W 77-47	-7.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	@OSU	L 78-91	+3.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsNU	L 61-74	-6.5	L −19.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+16.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+19.5

MILW

W 101-70

+6.5

UIW

W 69-61

−20.5

LIN

W 73-53

−12.5

KSU

W 86-69

+6.5

BCU

W 100-56

+14.5

MINN

L 64-73

−16.5

LOU

L 78-87

−5.5

PSU

W 113-72

+26.5

L 60-72

−8.5

CHST

W 78-58

−18.5

SIE

W 81-60

−0.5

WASH

W 90-80

+0.5

W 84-66

+10.5

NEB

L 77-83

−10.5

MSU

L 60-81

−14.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−20.5

MICH

L 72-86

+1.5

RUTG

W 82-59

+15.5

PUR

W 72-67

+9.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+4.5

USC

L 75-81

−7.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+7.5

ILL

L 51-71

−11.5

PUR

L 64-93

−17.5

L 68-72

−13.5

MSU

L 64-77

−10.5

MINN

W 77-47

+22.5

OSU

L 78-91

−9.5

L 61-74

−19.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+1.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+20.5

MILW

W 101-70

+5.5

UIW

W 69-61

−27.5

LIN

W 73-53

−29.5

KSU

W 86-69

−9.5

BCU

W 100-56

+7.5

MINN

L 64-73

−7.5

LOU

L 78-87

+2.5

PSU

W 113-72

+32.5

L 60-72

−24.5

CHST

W 78-58

−16.5

SIE

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 90-80

+17.5

W 84-66

+2.5

NEB

L 77-83

+9.5

MSU

L 60-81

−4.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−15.5

MICH

L 72-86

−5.5

RUTG

W 82-59

−6.5

PUR

W 72-67

−11.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+50.5

USC

L 75-81

+2.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+22.5

ILL

L 51-71

−31.5

PUR

L 64-93

+6.5

L 68-72

−5.5

MSU

L 64-77

−3.5

MINN

W 77-47

−14.5

OSU

L 78-91

+20.5

L 61-74

−7.5

over 14under 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Indiana has the better starters

Position by position: Rutgers 1, Indiana 2, even 2

RutgersBetterIndiana

G R. Jones TR15 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 69

IUSmall

G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98

G D. Smith TR20.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 88

Even

G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75

G T. Francis17 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 99

RUTGSmall

G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65

G J. Davis7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 72

IUSmall

F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98

G D. Buchanan8.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 68

Even

C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64

RutgersBetterIndiana

RUTG offense58th of 366 · +2.7

Even

IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0

RUTG defense65th of 366 · +1.0

Even

IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8

Backcourt+9.4 · 5 players

RUTGBig

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Even

Bench+0.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestRUTG betterIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rutgers

Guards

R. Jones37 min · TRD. Smith34 min · TRT. Francis28 minJ. Davis26 minD. Buchanan24 minL. Mark16 min

Forwards

W. SydnorNewM. MiteoNewM. TonejcNew

Centers

C. Gurdak17 min · TRD. Buca13 min · TRG. Ware6 min

Indiana

Guards

M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min

Forwards

A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew

Centers

S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RUTG70.5 #273

IU78.2 #93

Points per possession

RUTG1.04 #261

IU1.16 #46

Pace (possessions)

RUTG67.5 #254

IU67.4 #260

Shooting

Effective FG%

RUTG47.2 #331

IU56.1 #22

3-point %

RUTG32.4 #261

IU34.7 #138

3-point attempt rate

RUTG34.2 #291

IU50.5 #14

Free throw rate

RUTG36.3 #143

IU35.0 #179

Possessions

Turnover rate

RUTG14.9 #61

IU15.1 #71

Offensive rebound rate

RUTG29.7 #217

IU26.9 #300

Assists per game

RUTG12.2 #274

IU16.6 #34

Defense

Points allowed

RUTG75.3 #199

IU72.2 #109

Points allowed per possession

RUTG1.12 #267

IU1.07 #131

Opponent effective FG%

RUTG53.0 #268

IU49.0 #68

Opponent 3-point %

RUTG35.6 #287

IU33.1 #128

Turnovers forced

RUTG17.1 #141

IU15.1 #284

Defensive rebound rate

RUTG67.2 #292

IU70.8 #122

Steals per game

RUTG6.1 #226

IU4.7 #348

Blocks per game

RUTG3.4 #166

IU2.7 #278

RUTG		IU
Scoring
70.5 #273	Points per game	78.2 #93
1.04 #261	Points per possession	1.16 #46
67.5 #254	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #260
Shooting
47.2 #331	Effective FG%	56.1 #22
32.4 #261	3-point %	34.7 #138
34.2 #291	3-point attempt rate	50.5 #14
36.3 #143	Free throw rate	35.0 #179
Possessions
14.9 #61	Turnover rate	15.1 #71
29.7 #217	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #300
12.2 #274	Assists per game	16.6 #34
Defense
75.3 #199	Points allowed	72.2 #109
1.12 #267	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #131
53.0 #268	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #68
35.6 #287	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #128
17.1 #141	Turnovers forced	15.1 #284
67.2 #292	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #122
6.1 #226	Steals per game	4.7 #348
3.4 #166	Blocks per game	2.7 #278

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rutgers

14-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Creighton69–82
Lvs UCLA59–72
Wvs Minnesota72–67
Wvs Penn State74–62
L@ Michigan St87–91

A week or more of rest.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern61–74
L@ Ohio State78–91
Wvs Minnesota77–47
Lvs Michigan St64–77
Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Indiana Hoosiers

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Rutgers

Indiana

Indiana has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rutgers

Indiana