1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. SFA @ SMU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at SMU Mustangs

Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU
#193SFASF Austin
@
#55SMUSMU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SFAThis seasonSMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMU 84–66 · win probability SMU 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

SFA 2, SMU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SFA has played the 339th-hardest schedule, SMU the 70th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SMUBig
SFA offense vs SMU defense
Offense 252nd of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SFA plays 66.4 a game (298th fastest), SMU 71.1 (68th). Faster games mean more points
SMUBig
SMU offense vs SFA defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 156th, on the model’s ratings
SFASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SFA 14.2%, SMU 15.8%. Forced: SFA 17.7%, SMU 16.8%
SFASmall
Three-pointers
SFA hits 35.8% and allows 30.3%; SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 39.8% and 35.9% of their shots
SMUSmall
Home court
SMU at home. This season: SMU 0-0 at home, SFA 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SFA 33.8%, SMU 35.4%. Defensive: SFA 70.5%, SMU 68.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SFA 26%, SMU 20%. Transfers in: SFA 6, SMU 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SFA 51.7 and allows 47.7; SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SFA 30.1, SMU 30.4. Allowed: SFA 31.1, SMU 32.1
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SMU -17.9—
Total—149.3—
Projected score—SFA 65.7 · SMU 83.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSMU -10.5—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreSFA 29.6 · SMU 40.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SMU has the better starters

Position by position: SF Austin 0, SMU 4, even 1
SF AustinBetterSMU
G M. Russell TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 2 ast Score 36
SMUBig
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
G N. Chotikavanic9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 60
SMUSmall
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
F E. Daniel TR3.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
SMUBig
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
F G. Alisas4.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 52
Even
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
F A. Reed TR2.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 42
SMUSmall
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
SF AustinBetterSMU
SFA offense252nd of 366 · -7.6
SMUBig
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
SFA defense156th of 366 · -3.4
SMUSmall
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players
SMUBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 3 players
SMUSmall
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Bench-1.9 · 5 players
SMUSmall
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSFA betterSMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SF Austin
Guards
M. Russell36 min · TRN. Chotikavanic23 minC. Green7 minM. Scurry7 minA. Simmons4 min · TRB. Melvin3 min
Forwards
E. Daniel14 min · TRG. Alisas14 minA. Reed11 min · TRK. Pearson8 min · TR
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SFASMU
Scoring
74.9 #166Points per game84.1 #19
1.13 #88Points per possession1.19 #26
66.4 #298Pace (possessions)71.1 #68
Shooting
51.7 #160Effective FG%55.6 #27
35.8 #713-point %37.1 #27
39.8 #1763-point attempt rate35.9 #252
30.1 #306Free throw rate30.4 #301
Possessions
14.2 #29Turnover rate15.8 #119
33.8 #74Offensive rebound rate35.4 #37
13.1 #209Assists per game16.9 #27
Defense
66.7 #20Points allowed77.9 #265
1.00 #29Points allowed per possession1.09 #199
47.7 #35Opponent effective FG%51.6 #189
30.3 #11Opponent 3-point %34.1 #188
17.7 #116Turnovers forced16.8 #171
70.5 #131Defensive rebound rate68.4 #237
6.9 #136Steals per game7.0 #129
3.7 #118Blocks per game3.6 #132
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SF Austin

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa84–89
  • Lvs McNeese59–76
  • Wvs Texas A&M-CC60–58
  • W@ Incarnate Word76–68
  • W@ Hou Christian77–56

A week or more of rest.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.