1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. SMU @ DEP
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

SMU Mustangs at DePaul Blue Demons

Wintrust Arena · at DePaul
#55SMUSMU
@
#66DEPDePaul
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SMUThis seasonDEP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEP 75–74 · win probability DEP 53%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

SMU 3, DEP 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMUBig
Three-pointers
SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%; DEP hits 32.5% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 35.9% and 39.0% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SMU plays 71.1 a game (68th fastest), DEP 67.7 (240th). Faster games mean more points
SMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SMU 35.4%, DEP 30.1%. Defensive: SMU 68.4%, DEP 69.0%
SMUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6; DEP 49.8 and allows 49.3
DEPSmall
Home court
DEP at home. This season: DEP 0-0 at home, SMU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SMU 20%, DEP 38%. Transfers in: SMU 7, DEP 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
DEP offense vs SMU defense
Offense 92nd of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
Even
SMU offense vs DEP defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 31st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SMU 15.8%, DEP 17.7%. Forced: SMU 16.8%, DEP 18.7%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SMU 30.4, DEP 35.3. Allowed: SMU 32.1, DEP 37.8
Context
Schedule so far
SMU has played the 70th-hardest schedule, DEP the 72nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DEP -0.7—
Total—148.2—
Projected score—SMU 73.7 · DEP 74.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDEP -0.3—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreSMU 34.5 · DEP 34.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SMU has the better starters

Position by position: SMU 2, DePaul 1, even 2
SMUBetterDePaul
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
Even
G K. Holmes TR19.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
SMUSmall
G A. Popoola TR10.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
Even
G L. Blocker11.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 77
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
DEPSmall
G K. Cotton TR14.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
SMUSmall
C W. Jacques TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1 ast Score 52
SMUBetterDePaul
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
Even
DEP defense31st of 366 · +3.5
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
Even
DEP offense92nd of 366 · -0.3
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt+7.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Even
Bench+0.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSMU betterDEP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
DePaul
Guards
K. Holmes32 min · TRA. Popoola29 min · TRL. Blocker29 minK. Cotton28 min · TRN. Meeusen27 min · TRK. McClure19 min
Forwards
M. Gwath19 min · TRT. Pierre-Justin16 minJ. JohnsonNewA. JensenNew
Centers
W. Jacques28 min · TRF. Flores11 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SMUDEP
Scoring
84.1 #19Points per game70.3 #279
1.19 #26Points per possession1.04 #280
71.1 #68Pace (possessions)67.7 #240
Shooting
55.6 #27Effective FG%49.8 #243
37.1 #273-point %32.5 #253
35.9 #2523-point attempt rate39.0 #191
30.4 #301Free throw rate35.3 #169
Possessions
15.8 #119Turnover rate17.7 #253
35.4 #37Offensive rebound rate30.1 #197
16.9 #27Assists per game15.0 #87
Defense
77.9 #265Points allowed69.6 #57
1.09 #199Points allowed per possession1.03 #55
51.6 #189Opponent effective FG%49.3 #77
34.1 #188Opponent 3-point %35.4 #274
16.8 #171Turnovers forced18.7 #64
68.4 #237Defensive rebound rate69.0 #205
7.0 #129Steals per game6.9 #134
3.6 #132Blocks per game3.4 #152
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.

DePaul

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Georgetown56–63
  • Lvs Butler71–81
  • Lvs Villanova57–76
  • W@ Marquette62–51
  • W@ Creighton72–71

A week or more of rest.