Kennesaw State Owls at Austin Peay Governors: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 5:30 PM ETF&M Bank Arena · at Austin Peay

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kennesaw St and Austin Peay
KENN	This season	APSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KENN 77–76 · win probability KENN 51%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: APSU has more of the edges

KENN 1, APSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

KENN has played the 156th-hardest schedule, APSU the 318th. A record against a soft schedule means less

KENNBig

KENN offense vs APSU defense

Offense 126th of 366 against a defense 240th, on the model’s ratings

APSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: KENN 16.8%, APSU 15.4%. Forced: KENN 16.0%, APSU 17.9%

APSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: KENN 45.1, APSU 37.6. Allowed: KENN 47.1, APSU 32.8

APSUSmall

Three-pointers

KENN hits 33.4% and allows 33.5%; APSU hits 35.3% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 42.5% and 38.0% of their shots

APSUSmall

Home court

APSU at home. This season: APSU 0-0 at home, KENN 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: KENN plays 72.4 a game (27th fastest), APSU 70.1 (114th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: KENN 50.4 and allows 48.3; APSU 53.0 and allows 52.2

Even

APSU offense vs KENN defense

Offense 174th of 366 against a defense 193rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: KENN 35.2%, APSU 29.7%. Defensive: KENN 68.4%, APSU 71.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: KENN 32%, APSU 30%. Transfers in: KENN 5, APSU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	KENN -0.4	—
Total	—	153.0	—
Projected score	—	KENN 76.7 · APSU 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KENN -0.3	—
1H total	71.5	—
1H projected score	KENN 35.9 · APSU 35.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN LWWWW	16-16	50%	5-7	—
APSU LLLLL	14-15	48%	7-4	—

Venue/role: KENN away; APSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN UOUUU	15-17	47%	18-14
APSU UOOUO	14-15	48%	20-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
APSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kennesaw St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ GAST	W92–69WO

Austin Peay

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	vs AF	W74–54WU
Dec 15	@ SEA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KENN 1–1 APSUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · KENN 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 8, 2023-24	KENN 69 @ APSU 85	APSU +1.5	APSU W
Jan 26, 2022-23	APSU 57 @ KENN 84	KENN -10.5	KENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kennesaw St

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W L W L W W W L L L L W W W W L L W W L L L W W W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W L W L W W W L L W W L W L L L W L L L W L W L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O O O O O U U U U O O U U O O U U U O U O U U O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@FAMU	W 92-72	-11.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 16	vsUSF	L 89-108	+7.5	L −11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 24	vsRICE	W 89-84	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsORU	L 83-91	-8.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 174
Nov 26	@FGCU	W 102-100	+1.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 202
Dec 2	vsJKST	W 88-73	-15.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsGAST	W 92-69	-14.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 17	@MTSU	L 67-68	+3.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 135
Dec 21	vsALA	L 81-92	+20.5	W +9.5	182.5	U 173
Jan 2	@LIB	L 73-81	+7.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 154
Jan 4	@DEL	L 52-67	-8.5	L −23.5	148.5	U 119
Jan 7	vsMOST	W 90-80	-6.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsJXST	W 88-82	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 170
Jan 14	vsFIU	W 89-86	-5.5	L −2.5	175.5	U 175
Jan 17	@WKU	W 81-65	+7.5	W +23.5	165.5	U 146
Jan 21	@SHSU	L 87-93	+5.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 180
Jan 23	@LT	L 76-82	-1.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 28	vsWKU	W 72-69	-4.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsNMSU	W 76-53	-3.5	W +19.5	159.5	U 129
Feb 7	@JXST	L 58-77	-1.5	L −20.5	149.5	U 135
Feb 12	vsMTSU	L 87-90	-3.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 177
Feb 14	vsSHSU	L 79-83	-1.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 162
Feb 18	@MOST	W 91-87	+1.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 178
Feb 21	vsLT	W 58-55	-5.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 113
Feb 26	vsLIB	W 74-65	+1.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 28	vsDEL	W 90-82	-11.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 172
Mar 5	@UTEP	L 71-78	-3.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 149
Mar 7	@NMSU	L 76-79	+1.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 155
Mar 12	vsWKU	W 96-87	+1.5	W +10.5	159.5	O 183
Mar 13	vsSHSU	W 79-73	+2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 152
Mar 14	vsLT	W 71-60	-1.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 131
Mar 19	vsGONZ	L 64-73	+20.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

+8.5

USF

L 89-108

−11.5

RICE

W 89-84

+0.5

ORU

L 83-91

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+3.5

JKST

W 88-73

−0.5

GAST

W 92-69

+8.5

MTSU

L 67-68

+2.5

ALA

L 81-92

+9.5

LIB

L 73-81

−0.5

DEL

L 52-67

−23.5

MOST

W 90-80

+3.5

JXST

W 88-82

+0.5

FIU

W 89-86

−2.5

WKU

W 81-65

+23.5

SHSU

L 87-93

−0.5

L 76-82

−7.5

WKU

W 72-69

−1.5

NMSU

W 76-53

+19.5

JXST

L 58-77

−20.5

MTSU

L 87-90

−6.5

SHSU

L 79-83

−5.5

MOST

W 91-87

+5.5

W 58-55

−2.5

LIB

W 74-65

+10.5

DEL

W 90-82

−3.5

UTEP

L 71-78

−10.5

NMSU

L 76-79

−1.5

WKU

W 96-87

+10.5

SHSU

W 79-73

+8.5

W 71-60

+9.5

GONZ

L 64-73

+11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

−2.5

USF

L 89-108

+19.5

RICE

W 89-84

+13.5

ORU

L 83-91

+7.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+41.5

JKST

W 88-73

+3.5

GAST

W 92-69

+2.5

MTSU

L 67-68

−25.5

ALA

L 81-92

−9.5

LIB

L 73-81

−4.5

DEL

L 52-67

−29.5

MOST

W 90-80

+17.5

JXST

W 88-82

+20.5

FIU

W 89-86

−0.5

WKU

W 81-65

−19.5

SHSU

L 87-93

+12.5

L 76-82

+13.5

WKU

W 72-69

−19.5

NMSU

W 76-53

−30.5

JXST

L 58-77

−14.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+28.5

SHSU

L 79-83

−0.5

MOST

W 91-87

+25.5

W 58-55

−34.5

LIB

W 74-65

−13.5

DEL

W 90-82

+28.5

UTEP

L 71-78

+0.5

NMSU

L 76-79

−2.5

WKU

W 96-87

+23.5

SHSU

W 79-73

−7.5

W 71-60

−11.5

GONZ

L 64-73

−15.5

over 15under 17avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Austin Peay

29 games played

Straight up

20-9

69% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-969%

W L W L L W L L W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

W L W W L W L L W W L W W L L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U U U O U O U O O U U U U O U U O O O O O O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AF	W 74-54	-1.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	@WYO	L 65-79	+5.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	@UNCG	W 69-63	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 18	@MISS	L 65-72	+20.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@TLSA	L 75-84	+8.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsNIU	W 77-59	-6.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 3	@KENT	L 84-96	+8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 180
Dec 7	@RGV	L 50-63	+2.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 113
Dec 12	vsETSU	W 76-75	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 151
Jan 1	vsUNF	W 102-83	-15.5	W +3.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 3	vsJAX	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 8	@FGCU	W 82-71	+3.5	W +14.5	153.5	U 153
Jan 10	@STET	W 81-69	-9.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 150
Jan 15	vsEKU	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 146
Jan 17	@LIP	L 78-82	+2.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 22	vsFGCU	W 83-62	-6.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 23	vsSTET	W 73-65	-16.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 138
Jan 28	@EKU	W 90-82	-2.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 172
Jan 31	@WGA	W 81-78	-7.5	L −4.5	150.5	O 159
Feb 4	vsLIP	W 87-76	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsUNA	W 91-62	-12.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 11	@QUC	W 95-87	+2.5	W +10.5	161.5	O 182
Feb 14	vsBELL	W 90-70	-9.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 160
Feb 19	@UNF	W 77-76	-11.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 153
Feb 21	@JAX	W 65-61	-6.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 126
Feb 25	vsCARK	L 88-93	-4.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 28	@BELL	L 97-111	-5.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 208
Mar 6	vsSTET	W 69-60	-11.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 129
Mar 7	vsQUC	L 83-90	-2.5	L −9.5	161.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 74-54

+18.5

WYO

L 65-79

−8.5

UNCG

W 69-63

+7.5

MISS

L 65-72

+13.5

TLSA

L 75-84

−0.5

NIU

W 77-59

+11.5

KENT

L 84-96

−3.5

RGV

L 50-63

−10.5

ETSU

W 76-75

+4.5

UNF

W 102-83

+3.5

JAX

W 71-68

−7.5

FGCU

W 82-71

+14.5

STET

W 81-69

+2.5

EKU

W 74-72

−5.5

LIP

L 78-82

−1.5

FGCU

W 83-62

+14.5

STET

W 73-65

−8.5

EKU

W 90-82

+5.5

WGA

W 81-78

−4.5

LIP

W 87-76

+6.5

UNA

W 91-62

+16.5

QUC

W 95-87

+10.5

BELL

W 90-70

+10.5

UNF

W 77-76

−10.5

JAX

W 65-61

−2.5

CARK

L 88-93

−9.5

BELL

L 97-111

−19.5

STET

W 69-60

−2.5

QUC

L 83-90

−9.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 74-54

−8.5

WYO

L 65-79

−9.5

UNCG

W 69-63

−13.5

MISS

L 65-72

−8.5

TLSA

L 75-84

+10.5

NIU

W 77-59

−11.5

KENT

L 84-96

+26.5

RGV

L 50-63

−38.5

ETSU

W 76-75

+7.5

UNF

W 102-83

+22.5

JAX

W 71-68

−1.5

FGCU

W 82-71

−0.5

STET

W 81-69

−0.5

EKU

W 74-72

−7.5

LIP

L 78-82

+4.5

FGCU

W 83-62

−10.5

STET

W 73-65

−10.5

EKU

W 90-82

+20.5

WGA

W 81-78

+8.5

LIP

W 87-76

+6.5

UNA

W 91-62

+7.5

QUC

W 95-87

+20.5

BELL

W 90-70

+6.5

UNF

W 77-76

−13.5

JAX

W 65-61

−16.5

CARK

L 88-93

+28.5

BELL

L 97-111

+54.5

STET

W 69-60

−24.5

QUC

L 83-90

+11.5

over 14under 15avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Austin Peay has the better starters

Position by position: Kennesaw St 0, Austin Peay 2, even 3

Kennesaw StBetterAustin Peay

G J. Hill TR10.1 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 53

Even

G Z. Collins13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 60

G K. Rickard5.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 21

APSUSmall

G C. Love TR7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 44

F T. Simpson8 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 38

Even

G S. Hugie TR4.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 32

F A. Thomas TR8.3 pts · 6.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 61

No call

G C. Ryans NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F A. Enoh TR4.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

APSUBig

F R. Marshall16.3 pts · 7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 92

Kennesaw StBetterAustin Peay

KENN offense126th of 366 · -3.4

KENNSmall

APSU defense240th of 366 · -6.3

KENN defense193rd of 366 · -4.6

Even

APSU offense174th of 366 · -5.4

Backcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.5 · 3 players

APSUBig

Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player

Bench-0.4 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestKENN betterAPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kennesaw St

Guards

J. Hill31 min · TRK. Rickard20 minC. Beaumont9 min · TRK. Parker6 min · TRB. TousignautNewA. DanielsNew

Forwards

T. Simpson26 minA. Thomas25 min · TRA. Enoh23 min · TRA. Taylor17 minD. Onyirimba2 minK. BerryNew

Austin Peay

Guards

Z. Collins30 minC. Love25 min · TRS. Hugie12 min · TRC. RyansNewP. SingletonNewT. ToddNew

Forwards

R. Marshall30 minD. BoldenNewA. DavisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

KENN80.0 #66

APSU79.0 #79

Points per possession

KENN1.11 #122

APSU1.13 #91

Pace (possessions)

KENN72.4 #27

APSU70.1 #114

Shooting

Effective FG%

KENN50.4 #224

APSU53.0 #105

3-point %

KENN33.4 #203

APSU35.3 #99

3-point attempt rate

KENN42.5 #127

APSU38.0 #215

Free throw rate

KENN45.1 #5

APSU37.6 #110

Possessions

Turnover rate

KENN16.8 #183

APSU15.4 #94

Offensive rebound rate

KENN35.2 #44

APSU29.7 #214

Assists per game

KENN13.3 #189

APSU15.3 #76

Defense

Points allowed

KENN78.3 #272

APSU74.6 #179

Points allowed per possession

KENN1.08 #159

APSU1.06 #119

Opponent effective FG%

KENN48.3 #43

APSU52.2 #227

Opponent 3-point %

KENN33.5 #154

APSU33.2 #137

Turnovers forced

KENN16.0 #223

APSU17.9 #103

Defensive rebound rate

KENN68.4 #234

APSU71.1 #100

Steals per game

KENN6.8 #146

APSU8.4 #22

Blocks per game

KENN5.3 #10

APSU2.2 #329

KENN		APSU
Scoring
80.0 #66	Points per game	79.0 #79
1.11 #122	Points per possession	1.13 #91
72.4 #27	Pace (possessions)	70.1 #114
Shooting
50.4 #224	Effective FG%	53.0 #105
33.4 #203	3-point %	35.3 #99
42.5 #127	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #215
45.1 #5	Free throw rate	37.6 #110
Possessions
16.8 #183	Turnover rate	15.4 #94
35.2 #44	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #214
13.3 #189	Assists per game	15.3 #76
Defense
78.3 #272	Points allowed	74.6 #179
1.08 #159	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #119
48.3 #43	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #227
33.5 #154	Opponent 3-point %	33.2 #137
16.0 #223	Turnovers forced	17.9 #103
68.4 #234	Defensive rebound rate	71.1 #100
6.8 #146	Steals per game	8.4 #22
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	2.2 #329

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kennesaw St

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gonzaga64–73
Wvs Louisiana Tech71–60
Wvs Sam Houston79–73
Wvs Western KY96–87
L@ New Mexico St76–79

A week or more of rest.

Austin Peay

20-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Queens University Royals83–90
Wvs Stetson69–60
L@ Bellarmine97–111
Lvs C Arkansas88–93
W@ Jacksonville65–61

A week or more of rest.

Kennesaw State Owls at Austin Peay Governors

What could decide it: APSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kennesaw St

Austin Peay

Austin Peay has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kennesaw St

Austin Peay