Texas State Bobcats at Houston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 5:30 PM ETFertitta Center · at Houston

#2HOUHouston AP #10

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Texas St and Houston
TXST	This season	HOU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 88–58 · win probability HOU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

TXST 2, HOU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

TXST has played the 298th-hardest schedule, HOU the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUBig

Three-pointers

TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%; HOU hits 34.7% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 24.6% and 40.7% of their shots

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TXST 18.7%, HOU 12.8%. Forced: TXST 18.5%, HOU 20.7%

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0; HOU 51.9 and allows 46.2

HOUSmall

TXST offense vs HOU defense

Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

HOUSmall

HOU offense vs TXST defense

Offense 10th of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings

TXSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TXST 69%, HOU 26%. Transfers in: TXST 5, HOU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

TXSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TXST 34.0, HOU 26.3. Allowed: TXST 39.0, HOU 38.7

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: TXST plays 68.2 a game (223rd fastest), HOU 65.0 (346th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 0-0 at home, TXST 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TXST 33.9%, HOU 35.7%. Defensive: TXST 71.6%, HOU 69.7%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HOU -29.1	—
Total	—	145.9	—
Projected score	—	TXST 58.4 · HOU 87.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -17.2	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	TXST 25.5 · HOU 42.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LWLWL	14-16	47%	4-8	—
HOU WLWWL	19-18	51%	10-6	—

Venue/role: TXST away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OOUUO	16-14	53%	17-13
HOU UOUOU	15-22	41%	30-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs RGV	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs UNT	L63–67WO

Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs ALA	L80–85LO
Dec 13	vs LSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TXST 0–2 HOUHOU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · TXST 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2023-24	TXST 37 @ HOU 72	HOU -27.5	HOU W
Dec 22, 2021-22	TXST 47 @ HOU 80	HOU -19	HOU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas St

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L W W W W L L L W L W L W L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U O O U U U U O O O O U O O O O U O O U U O U U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BGSU	L 48-83	+5.5	L −29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 8	@TULN	L 71-79	+12.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 12	vsUTSA	W 80-69	-2.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	vsTXSO	W 77-67	-4.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 18	vsACU	W 63-49	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 112
Nov 21	vsLR	W 65-56	-5.5	W +3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 28	vsSEA	L 52-66	+7.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 118
Nov 29	vsLEH	L 74-78	-6.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 3	@RICE	L 72-77	+3.5	L −1.5	133.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsSOU	W 86-83	-3.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 17	vsARST	L 70-89	+4.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsUSA	W 67-65	-3.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 132
Dec 31	@TROY	L 80-100	+8.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 180
Jan 3	@ULM	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 8	@USM	L 70-80	+2.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 150
Jan 10	@ARST	L 82-83	+11.5	W +10.5	156.5	O 165
Jan 14	vsUL	W 59-54	-8.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 113
Jan 17	vsUSM	W 74-67	-2.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 141
Jan 22	@CCU	L 70-72	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 24	@JMU	L 57-82	+5.5	L −19.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 28	vsMRSH	W 72-68	+3.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsODU	W 81-64	-2.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 145
Feb 4	@GASO	W 77-71	+4.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsWMU	W 77-61	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 11	vsTROY	W 74-62	+5.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 14	vsULM	W 95-84	-14.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 179
Feb 19	@USA	W 90-82	+3.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 172
Feb 21	@UL	L 54-67	-3.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 27	vsAPP	W 60-57	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 117
Mar 6	vsUSM	L 77-81	-1.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−29.5

TULN

L 71-79

+4.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+8.5

TXSO

W 77-67

+5.5

ACU

W 63-49

+12.5

W 65-56

+3.5

SEA

L 52-66

−6.5

LEH

L 74-78

−10.5

RICE

L 72-77

−1.5

SOU

W 86-83

−0.5

ARST

L 70-89

−14.5

USA

W 67-65

−1.5

TROY

L 80-100

−11.5

ULM

W 84-79

−5.5

USM

L 70-80

−7.5

ARST

L 82-83

+10.5

W 59-54

−3.5

USM

W 74-67

+4.5

CCU

L 70-72

−0.5

JMU

L 57-82

−19.5

MRSH

W 72-68

+7.5

ODU

W 81-64

+14.5

GASO

W 77-71

+10.5

WMU

W 77-61

+9.5

TROY

W 74-62

+17.5

ULM

W 95-84

−3.5

USA

W 90-82

+11.5

L 54-67

−16.5

APP

W 60-57

+4.5

USM

L 77-81

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−15.5

TULN

L 71-79

+3.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+1.5

TXSO

W 77-67

−0.5

ACU

W 63-49

−26.5

W 65-56

−10.5

SEA

L 52-66

−18.5

LEH

L 74-78

+16.5

RICE

L 72-77

+15.5

SOU

W 86-83

+26.5

ARST

L 70-89

+7.5

USA

W 67-65

−4.5

TROY

L 80-100

+34.5

ULM

W 84-79

+12.5

USM

L 70-80

+5.5

ARST

L 82-83

+8.5

W 59-54

−20.5

USM

W 74-67

+0.5

CCU

L 70-72

+1.5

JMU

L 57-82

−4.5

MRSH

W 72-68

−7.5

ODU

W 81-64

+1.5

GASO

W 77-71

−3.5

WMU

W 77-61

−8.5

TROY

W 74-62

−4.5

ULM

W 95-84

+29.5

USA

W 90-82

+34.5

L 54-67

−13.5

APP

W 60-57

−18.5

USM

L 77-81

+17.5

over 16under 14avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Houston

37 games played

Straight up

30-7

81% wins

Against the spread

19-18

51% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-781%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L L L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1851%

L L W L W L L L W W W W L W L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

U U U O O O O U O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U O U U O U O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 12	vsOAK	W 78-45	-30.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 16	vsAUB	W 73-72	-7.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 20	vsRID	W 91-45	-40.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 24	vsSYR	W 78-74	-14.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTENN	L 73-76	-2.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsND	W 66-56	-11.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsFSU	W 82-67	-12.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsJKST	W 80-38	-40.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	vsNOLA	W 99-57	-32.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsARK	W 94-85	-5.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMTSU	W 69-60	-25.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 3	@CIN	W 67-60	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 6	vsTTU	W 69-65	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 134
Jan 10	@BAY	W 77-55	-2.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsWVU	W 77-48	-13.5	W +15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 18	vsASU	W 103-73	-18.5	W +11.5	142.5	O 176
Jan 24	@TTU	L 86-90	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 28	@TCU	W 79-70	-8.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsCIN	W 76-54	-13.5	W +8.5	135.5	U 130
Feb 4	vsUCF	W 79-55	-15.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 7	@BYU	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 10	@UTAH	W 66-52	-16.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 118
Feb 14	vsKSU	W 78-64	-22.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 16	@ISU	L 67-70	+2.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 21	vsARIZ	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 23	@KU	L 56-69	-2.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 125
Feb 28	vsCOLO	W 102-62	-20.5	W +19.5	139.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsBAY	W 77-64	-12.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Mar 7	@OKST	W 82-75	-13.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsBYU	W 73-66	-9.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 13	vsKU	W 69-47	-5.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Mar 14	vsARIZ	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 153
Mar 19	vsIDHO	W 78-47	-24.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 125
Mar 21	vsTA&M	W 88-57	-10.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 26	vsILL	L 55-65	-2.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

OAK

W 78-45

+2.5

AUB

W 73-72

−6.5

RID

W 91-45

+5.5

SYR

W 78-74

−10.5

TENN

L 73-76

−5.5

W 66-56

−1.5

FSU

W 82-67

+2.5

JKST

W 80-38

+1.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+9.5

ARK

W 94-85

+3.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−16.5

CIN

W 67-60

+2.5

TTU

W 69-65

−3.5

BAY

W 77-55

+19.5

WVU

W 77-48

+15.5

ASU

W 103-73

+11.5

TTU

L 86-90

−5.5

TCU

W 79-70

+0.5

CIN

W 76-54

+8.5

UCF

W 79-55

+8.5

BYU

W 77-66

+9.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−2.5

KSU

W 78-64

−8.5

ISU

L 67-70

−0.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−13.5

L 56-69

−15.5

COLO

W 102-62

+19.5

BAY

W 77-64

+0.5

OKST

W 82-75

−6.5

BYU

W 73-66

−2.5

W 69-47

+16.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

−3.5

IDHO

W 78-47

+6.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+20.5

ILL

L 55-65

−12.5

covered 19didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

OAK

W 78-45

−15.5

AUB

W 73-72

+4.5

RID

W 91-45

+1.5

SYR

W 78-74

+11.5

TENN

L 73-76

+12.5

W 66-56

−10.5

FSU

W 82-67

+0.5

JKST

W 80-38

−19.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+17.5

ARK

W 94-85

+32.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−9.5

CIN

W 67-60

−8.5

TTU

W 69-65

−8.5

BAY

W 77-55

−10.5

WVU

W 77-48

−2.5

ASU

W 103-73

+33.5

TTU

L 86-90

+34.5

TCU

W 79-70

+9.5

CIN

W 76-54

−5.5

UCF

W 79-55

−12.5

BYU

W 77-66

−8.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−24.5

KSU

W 78-64

−2.5

ISU

L 67-70

+2.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−3.5

L 56-69

−13.5

COLO

W 102-62

+24.5

BAY

W 77-64

−2.5

OKST

W 82-75

+5.5

BYU

W 73-66

−7.5

W 69-47

−23.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

+14.5

IDHO

W 78-47

−12.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+2.5

ILL

L 55-65

−21.5

over 15under 22avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Houston has the better starters

Position by position: Texas St 0, Houston 3, even 2

Texas StBetterHouston

G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56

HOUBig

G C. Hadnot TR20.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.6 ast Score 95

G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84

HOUSmall

G D. Thomas TR15.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.5 ast Score 99

G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

HOUSmall

F D. Gillespie TR17.9 pts · 11.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 94

F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94

Even

F B. East TR12.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 92

F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89

Even

F J. Tugler8.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96

Texas StBetterHouston

TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4

HOUSmall

HOU defense1st of 366 · +13.2

TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4

HOUSmall

HOU offense10th of 366 · +10.1

Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+10.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-0.3 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+3.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestTXST betterHOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Texas St

Guards

M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR

Forwards

D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew

Centers

R. Fields16 min

Houston

Guards

C. Hadnot35 min · TRD. Thomas29 min · TRC. Weaver21 min · TRM. Miller12 minK. Jefferson4 minB. JacksonNew

Forwards

D. Gillespie33 min · TRB. East24 min · TRJ. Tugler24 minC. McCarty12 min

Centers

A. DianeNewD. SilimanaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TXST71.9 #247

HOU76.9 #119

Points per possession

TXST1.06 #230

HOU1.18 #36

Pace (possessions)

TXST68.2 #223

HOU65.0 #346

Shooting

Effective FG%

TXST50.0 #238

HOU51.9 #150

3-point %

TXST32.2 #271

HOU34.7 #134

3-point attempt rate

TXST24.6 #364

HOU40.7 #153

Free throw rate

TXST34.0 #211

HOU26.3 #355

Possessions

Turnover rate

TXST18.7 #309

HOU12.8 #3

Offensive rebound rate

TXST33.9 #68

HOU35.7 #32

Assists per game

TXST12.7 #239

HOU14.6 #111

Defense

Points allowed

TXST72.5 #117

HOU62.3 #1

Points allowed per possession

TXST1.06 #106

HOU0.96 #5

Opponent effective FG%

TXST52.0 #210

HOU46.2 #12

Opponent 3-point %

TXST35.7 #293

HOU31.6 #49

Turnovers forced

TXST18.5 #75

HOU20.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

TXST71.6 #81

HOU69.7 #173

Steals per game

TXST7.9 #41

HOU7.5 #75

Blocks per game

TXST3.6 #120

HOU3.8 #96

TXST		HOU
Scoring
71.9 #247	Points per game	76.9 #119
1.06 #230	Points per possession	1.18 #36
68.2 #223	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #346
Shooting
50.0 #238	Effective FG%	51.9 #150
32.2 #271	3-point %	34.7 #134
24.6 #364	3-point attempt rate	40.7 #153
34.0 #211	Free throw rate	26.3 #355
Possessions
18.7 #309	Turnover rate	12.8 #3
33.9 #68	Offensive rebound rate	35.7 #32
12.7 #239	Assists per game	14.6 #111
Defense
72.5 #117	Points allowed	62.3 #1
1.06 #106	Points allowed per possession	0.96 #5
52.0 #210	Opponent effective FG%	46.2 #12
35.7 #293	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #49
18.5 #75	Turnovers forced	20.7 #14
71.6 #81	Defensive rebound rate	69.7 #173
7.9 #41	Steals per game	7.5 #75
3.6 #120	Blocks per game	3.8 #96

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss77–81
Wvs App State60–57
L@ Louisiana54–67
W@ South Alabama90–82
Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.

Houston

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois55–65
Wvs Texas A&M88–57
Wvs Idaho78–47
Lvs Arizona74–79
Wvs Kansas69–47

A week or more of rest.

Texas State Bobcats at Houston Cougars

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas St

Houston

Houston has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Texas St

Houston