1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. UTA @ SFA
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

UT Arlington Mavericks at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

William R. Johnson Coliseum · at SF Austin
#258UTAUT Arlington
@
#193SFASF Austin
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTAThis seasonSFA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SFA 74–66 · win probability SFA 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 140.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SFA has more of the edges

UTA 0, SFA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SFABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTA 20.7%, SFA 14.2%. Forced: UTA 18.0%, SFA 17.7%
SFABig
Three-pointers
UTA hits 29.1% and allows 26.9%; SFA hits 35.8% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 30.7% and 39.8% of their shots
SFABig
UTA offense vs SFA defense
Offense 289th of 366 against a defense 156th, on the model’s ratings
SFASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTA 47.2 and allows 47.5; SFA 51.7 and allows 47.7
Context
Schedule so far
UTA has played the 268th-hardest schedule, SFA the 338th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SFASmall
Home court
SFA at home. This season: SFA 0-0 at home, UTA 0-0 away
Even
SFA offense vs UTA defense
Offense 252nd of 366 against a defense 211th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTA 7%, SFA 26%. Transfers in: UTA 5, SFA 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTA 42.5, SFA 30.1. Allowed: UTA 40.9, SFA 31.1
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UTA plays 67.3 a game (265th fastest), SFA 66.4 (298th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTA 34.9%, SFA 33.8%. Defensive: UTA 69.9%, SFA 70.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SFA -7.7—
Total—140.5—
Projected score—UTA 66.4 · SFA 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSFA -4.5—
1H total65.8—
1H projected scoreUTA 30.7 · SFA 35.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SF Austin has the better starters

Position by position: UT Arlington 0, SF Austin 1, even 4
UT ArlingtonBetterSF Austin
G M. Panoam TR0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Russell TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 2 ast Score 36
F T. McDaniels TR12 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
Even
G N. Chotikavanic9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 60
F M. Goodman3.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11
SFASmall
F E. Daniel TR3.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
F B. McGlothin TR0 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F G. Alisas4.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 52
F N. Bundalo TR0.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. Reed TR2.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 42
UT ArlingtonBetterSF Austin
UTA offense289th of 366 · -8.9
SFABig
SFA defense156th of 366 · -3.4
UTA defense211th of 366 · -5.4
Even
SFA offense252nd of 366 · -7.6
Backcourt-0.3 · 1 player
UTASmall
Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 4 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 3 players
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
UTASmall
Bench-1.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTA betterSFA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UT Arlington
Guards
M. Panoam6 min · TRN. Shelby3 min · TRJ. SmithNewT. HankinsNewK. MikalauskasNewJ. ParkerNew
Forwards
T. McDaniels27 min · TRM. Goodman13 minB. McGlothin5 min · TRN. Bundalo3 min · TRT. SimicNewS. HadnotNew
SF Austin
Guards
M. Russell36 min · TRN. Chotikavanic23 minC. Green7 minM. Scurry7 minA. Simmons4 min · TRB. Melvin3 min
Forwards
E. Daniel14 min · TRG. Alisas14 minA. Reed11 min · TRK. Pearson8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTASFA
Scoring
67.7 #320Points per game74.9 #166
1.01 #319Points per possession1.13 #88
67.3 #265Pace (possessions)66.4 #298
Shooting
47.2 #332Effective FG%51.7 #160
29.1 #3523-point %35.8 #71
30.7 #3453-point attempt rate39.8 #176
42.5 #24Free throw rate30.1 #306
Possessions
20.7 #354Turnover rate14.2 #29
34.9 #50Offensive rebound rate33.8 #74
10.7 #345Assists per game13.1 #209
Defense
67.8 #29Points allowed66.7 #20
1.01 #30Points allowed per possession1.00 #29
47.5 #29Opponent effective FG%47.7 #35
26.9 #1Opponent 3-point %30.3 #11
18.0 #93Turnovers forced17.7 #116
69.9 #166Defensive rebound rate70.5 #131
7.3 #97Steals per game6.9 #136
3.5 #148Blocks per game3.7 #118
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Arlington

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah Valley65–67
  • Wvs Southern Utah69–63
  • W@ Abilene Chrstn64–57
  • W@ Tarleton St65–60
  • L@ CA Baptist56–68

A week or more of rest.

SF Austin

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa84–89
  • Lvs McNeese59–76
  • Wvs Texas A&M-CC60–58
  • W@ Incarnate Word76–68
  • W@ Hou Christian77–56

A week or more of rest.