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  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. WAG @ MARQ
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Wagner Seahawks at Marquette Golden Eagles

Fiserv Forum · at Marquette
#354WAGWagner
@
#42MARQMarquette
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WAGThis seasonMARQ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MARQ 89–57 · win probability MARQ 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MARQ has more of the edges

WAG 2, MARQ 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MARQBig
WAG offense vs MARQ defense
Offense 359th of 366 against a defense 36th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WAG has played the 349th-hardest schedule, MARQ the 37th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MARQBig
MARQ offense vs WAG defense
Offense 46th of 366 against a defense 293rd, on the model’s ratings
MARQBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WAG 18.6%, MARQ 16.1%. Forced: WAG 14.9%, MARQ 19.3%
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Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WAG 32.8%, MARQ 29.7%. Defensive: WAG 70.5%, MARQ 65.3%
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Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WAG 0%, MARQ 64%. Transfers in: WAG 8, MARQ 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: WAG plays 66.4 a game (299th fastest), MARQ 70.9 (79th). Faster games mean more points
MARQSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: WAG 32.4, MARQ 32.8. Allowed: WAG 40.8, MARQ 32.0
WAGSmall
Three-pointers
WAG hits 36.6% and allows 34.3%; MARQ hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 36.1% and 42.2% of their shots
MARQSmall
Home court
MARQ at home. This season: MARQ 0-0 at home, WAG 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: WAG 49.6 and allows 50.4; MARQ 50.5 and allows 50.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MARQ -31.6—
Total—145.4—
Projected score—WAG 56.9 · MARQ 88.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMARQ -18.7—
1H total68.0—
1H projected scoreWAG 24.7 · MARQ 43.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Marquette has the better starters

Position by position: Wagner 0, Marquette 3, even 2
WagnerBetterMarquette
G T. Bryant TR3.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 8
MARQBig
G C. Porter TR11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 45
G C. Estevez TR3.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
MARQBig
G N. Minessale TR19.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 4.2 ast Score 97
G R. Pettis TR1.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G N. James16.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.9 ast Score 99
F K. Watson TR4.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 31
MARQSmall
G A. Stevens7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 65
C B. Smith TR1.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F R. Parham12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 87
WagnerBetterMarquette
WAG offense359th of 366 · -14.0
MARQBig
MARQ defense36th of 366 · +3.1
WAG defense293rd of 366 · -7.4
MARQBig
MARQ offense46th of 366 · +4.2
Backcourt-3.1 · 3 players
MARQBig
Backcourt+8.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
MARQBig
Frontcourt+2.5 · 1 player
Bench-1.9 · 3 players
MARQBig
Bench+2.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWAG betterMARQ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wagner
Guards
T. Bryant14 min · TRC. Estevez12 min · TRR. Pettis10 min · TRL. McGradyNewJ. CurtisNewG. EdwardsNew
Forwards
K. Watson12 min · TRT. Jones5 min · TRA. RodriguezNewD. KabaNewF. HassanNew
Centers
B. Smith8 min · TRY. Singar8 min · TRW. Patterson4 min · TR
Marquette
Guards
C. Porter35 min · TRN. Minessale32 min · TRN. James29 minA. Stevens26 minE. JohnstonNewN. WalkerNew
Forwards
R. Parham29 minS. Fru22 min · TRD. Owens16 minC. Hamilton13 minM. Phillips8 minJ. Clark6 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WAGMARQ
Scoring
69.6 #292Points per game75.2 #160
1.05 #250Points per possession1.06 #223
66.4 #299Pace (possessions)70.9 #79
Shooting
49.6 #262Effective FG%50.5 #215
36.6 #363-point %31.7 #297
36.1 #2493-point attempt rate42.2 #133
32.4 #252Free throw rate32.8 #243
Possessions
18.6 #303Turnover rate16.1 #145
32.8 #96Offensive rebound rate29.7 #216
11.9 #289Assists per game15.5 #63
Defense
72.7 #126Points allowed75.8 #213
1.09 #208Points allowed per possession1.07 #125
50.4 #123Opponent effective FG%50.6 #131
34.3 #202Opponent 3-point %32.7 #104
14.9 #295Turnovers forced19.3 #39
70.5 #139Defensive rebound rate65.3 #331
5.2 #321Steals per game9.3 #5
2.3 #320Blocks per game3.1 #207
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wagner

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island56–64
  • W@ C Connecticut70–60
  • Wvs Chicago St80–61
  • Wvs New Haven65–62
  • W@ Saint Francis Red Wolves65–56

A week or more of rest.

Marquette

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Xavier87–89
  • Wvs UConn68–62
  • W@ Providence78–56
  • Lvs DePaul51–62
  • W@ Georgetown76–60

A week or more of rest.