Belmont Bruins at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 7:30 PM ETE.A. Diddle Arena · at Western KY

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Belmont and Western KY
BEL	This season	WKU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WKU 79–77 · win probability WKU 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WKU has more of the edges

BEL 3, WKU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BELBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BEL 61.0 and allows 49.9; WKU 47.5 and allows 51.2

WKUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BEL 18.0%, WKU 14.5%. Forced: BEL 17.4%, WKU 17.2%

BELSmall

Three-pointers

BEL hits 41.0% and allows 34.2%; WKU hits 33.4% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 45.7% and 39.5% of their shots

WKUSmall

WKU offense vs BEL defense

Offense 115th of 366 against a defense 192nd, on the model’s ratings

WKUSmall

Home court

WKU at home. This season: WKU 0-0 at home, BEL 0-0 away

BELSmall

BEL offense vs WKU defense

Offense 118th of 366 against a defense 169th, on the model’s ratings

WKUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BEL 28.8%, WKU 31.8%. Defensive: BEL 70.8%, WKU 70.5%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BEL 32.5, WKU 41.2. Allowed: BEL 30.7, WKU 46.8

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: BEL plays 70.5 a game (94th fastest), WKU 71.5 (52nd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

BEL has played the 146th-hardest schedule, WKU the 160th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BEL 41%, WKU 44%. Transfers in: BEL 4, WKU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WKU -2.2	—
Total	—	155.2	—
Projected score	—	BEL 76.5 · WKU 78.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WKU -1.2	—
1H total	72.5	—
1H projected score	BEL 35.7 · WKU 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BEL WWWLL	18-13	58%	8-6	—
WKU WWLLL	15-15	50%	7-7	—

Venue/role: BEL away; WKU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BEL UOOOO	19-12	61%	25-6
WKU OOOUO	15-15	50%	16-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BEL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
WKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Belmont

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs MTSU	W83–62WU
Dec 8	@ UAB	No recent meeting
Dec 14	vs COFC	W96–73WO

Western KY

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ EVAN	W80–79LO
Dec 12	vs UAB	L60–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Belmont

31 games played

Straight up

25-6

81% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-12

61% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-681%

W W W W W W W L W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1358%

W L W L W W W L W L L W L W L W L L W W L W W W L W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1261%

U O U U U U O O U O O U O O U O O O U U O O O U O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAF	W 79-63	-15.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsTNST	W 87-79	-13.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 15	@ORU	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 19	vsLIP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 24	vsSFPA	W 94-57	-21.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTOL	W 87-72	-4.5	W +10.5	163.5	U 159
Nov 30	@COFC	W 96-73	-2.5	W +20.5	152.5	O 169
Dec 3	vsRICH	L 76-84	-6.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 7	@MTSU	W 83-62	-3.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 13	vsUIC	W 87-84	-12.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 171
Dec 16	@EVAN	W 83-78	-8.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 19	@UCI	W 84-58	+1.5	W +27.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 29	@INST	L 80-81	-7.5	L −8.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	vsBRAD	W 88-78	-3.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 166
Jan 4	vsSIU	L 67-68	-6.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 135
Jan 7	@UNI	W 78-65	+2.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 143
Jan 10	@DRKE	W 78-76	-4.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 13	vsVAL	W 78-74	-11.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 152
Jan 17	@SIU	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 24	vsILST	W 80-69	-5.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 28	@VAL	W 78-77	-5.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsMUR	W 103-86	-3.5	W +13.5	163.5	O 189
Feb 3	vsDRKE	W 103-90	-9.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 193
Feb 6	@UIC	W 68-62	-1.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 130
Feb 9	@BRAD	L 84-95	-1.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 179
Feb 12	vsUNI	W 91-86	-4.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 177
Feb 15	@MUR	W 87-70	-1.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 157
Feb 21	vsINST	W 87-70	-12.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 25	vsEVAN	W 98-64	-18.5	W +15.5	152.5	O 162
Mar 1	@ILST	L 74-81	-1.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 155
Mar 6	vsDRKE	L 79-100	-12.5	L −33.5	152.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 79-63

+0.5

TNST

W 87-79

−5.5

ORU

W 83-60

+15.5

LIP

W 75-68

−5.5

SFPA

W 94-57

+15.5

TOL

W 87-72

+10.5

COFC

W 96-73

+20.5

RICH

L 76-84

−14.5

MTSU

W 83-62

+17.5

UIC

W 87-84

−9.5

EVAN

W 83-78

−3.5

UCI

W 84-58

+27.5

INST

L 80-81

−8.5

BRAD

W 88-78

+6.5

SIU

L 67-68

−7.5

UNI

W 78-65

+15.5

DRKE

W 78-76

−2.5

VAL

W 78-74

−7.5

SIU

W 73-68

+1.5

ILST

W 80-69

+5.5

VAL

W 78-77

−4.5

MUR

W 103-86

+13.5

DRKE

W 103-90

+3.5

UIC

W 68-62

+4.5

BRAD

L 84-95

−12.5

UNI

W 91-86

+0.5

MUR

W 87-70

+15.5

INST

W 87-70

+4.5

EVAN

W 98-64

+15.5

ILST

L 74-81

−8.5

DRKE

L 79-100

−33.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 79-63

−2.5

TNST

W 87-79

+7.5

ORU

W 83-60

−28.5

LIP

W 75-68

−15.5

SFPA

W 94-57

−6.5

TOL

W 87-72

−4.5

COFC

W 96-73

+16.5

RICH

L 76-84

+3.5

MTSU

W 83-62

−8.5

UIC

W 87-84

+16.5

EVAN

W 83-78

+13.5

UCI

W 84-58

−8.5

INST

L 80-81

+1.5

BRAD

W 88-78

+12.5

SIU

L 67-68

−23.5

UNI

W 78-65

+5.5

DRKE

W 78-76

+5.5

VAL

W 78-74

+5.5

SIU

W 73-68

−10.5

ILST

W 80-69

−1.5

VAL

W 78-77

+9.5

MUR

W 103-86

+25.5

DRKE

W 103-90

+38.5

UIC

W 68-62

−21.5

BRAD

L 84-95

+26.5

UNI

W 91-86

+38.5

MUR

W 87-70

−9.5

INST

W 87-70

+0.5

EVAN

W 98-64

+9.5

ILST

L 74-81

+4.5

DRKE

L 79-100

+26.5

over 19under 12avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Western KY

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

W W W L L W W L L L W W L W W L L L L W L W W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L W W L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U O O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTNTC	W 82-70	-14.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 10	@EKU	W 87-79	-1.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 16	vsTNST	W 95-82	-12.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsVAN	L 78-83	+18.5	W +13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsUSF	L 91-97	+7.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsWICH	W 75-70	+4.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	vsEVAN	W 80-79	-11.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 10	@MRSH	L 61-77	+1.5	L −14.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsTLSA	L 81-82	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 29	@JXST	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	vsSHSU	W 102-91	-5.5	W +5.5	168.5	O 193
Jan 4	vsLT	W 66-61	-9.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	@NMSU	L 64-80	+2.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 144
Jan 10	@UTEP	W 68-56	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 14	vsMOST	W 87-72	-6.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Jan 17	vsKENN	L 65-81	-7.5	L −23.5	165.5	U 146
Jan 21	vsLIB	L 69-76	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	@SHSU	L 58-73	+5.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 131
Jan 28	@KENN	L 69-72	+4.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 141
Jan 31	@MTSU	W 65-60	+6.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 125
Feb 5	vsJXST	L 66-71	-4.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsFIU	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 150
Feb 14	vsMTSU	W 82-80	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 162
Feb 18	@DEL	W 88-87	-4.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 175
Feb 21	@LIB	W 94-73	+7.5	W +28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	vsNMSU	W 93-70	-4.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 28	vsUTEP	W 97-65	-9.5	W +22.5	145.5	O 162
Mar 5	@MOST	L 74-87	-1.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 161
Mar 7	@FIU	L 67-92	-1.5	L −26.5	160.5	U 159
Mar 12	vsKENN	L 87-96	-1.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−2.5

EKU

W 87-79

+6.5

TNST

W 95-82

+0.5

VAN

L 78-83

+13.5

USF

L 91-97

+1.5

WICH

W 75-70

+9.5

EVAN

W 80-79

−10.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−14.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+1.5

JXST

L 67-78

−13.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+5.5

W 66-61

−4.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−13.5

UTEP

W 68-56

+8.5

MOST

W 87-72

+8.5

KENN

L 65-81

−23.5

LIB

L 69-76

−5.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−9.5

KENN

L 69-72

+1.5

MTSU

W 65-60

+11.5

JXST

L 66-71

−9.5

FIU

W 80-70

+5.5

MTSU

W 82-80

−1.5

DEL

W 88-87

−3.5

LIB

W 94-73

+28.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+18.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+22.5

MOST

L 74-87

−14.5

FIU

L 67-92

−26.5

KENN

L 87-96

−10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−1.5

EKU

W 87-79

+3.5

TNST

W 95-82

+9.5

VAN

L 78-83

−7.5

USF

L 91-97

+20.5

WICH

W 75-70

−10.5

EVAN

W 80-79

+11.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−21.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+4.5

JXST

L 67-78

+2.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+24.5

W 66-61

−18.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−10.5

UTEP

W 68-56

−20.5

MOST

W 87-72

+10.5

KENN

L 65-81

−19.5

LIB

L 69-76

−3.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−25.5

KENN

L 69-72

−19.5

MTSU

W 65-60

−15.5

JXST

L 66-71

−3.5

FIU

W 80-70

−9.5

MTSU

W 82-80

+16.5

DEL

W 88-87

+35.5

LIB

W 94-73

+19.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+11.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+16.5

MOST

L 74-87

+8.5

FIU

L 67-92

−1.5

KENN

L 87-96

+23.5

over 15under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Western KY has the better starters

Position by position: Belmont 1, Western KY 3, even 1

BelmontBetterWestern KY

G J. Jenkins8.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 42

WKUBig

G T. Moore19.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99

G J. Smiley8.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 81

BELBig

G N. Norgaard TR7.8 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11

G I. West2.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7

WKUBig

G A. Boone10.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 61

F K. Fish TR7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47

WKUSmall

G L. Hackman8.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 64

F E. Dillon7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76

Even

F E. Erkins-Ford TR8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 71

BelmontBetterWestern KY

BEL offense118th of 366 · -2.7

Even

WKU defense169th of 366 · -3.9

BEL defense192nd of 366 · -4.5

WKUSmall

WKU offense115th of 366 · -2.4

Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players

WKUBig

Backcourt+3.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player

Bench-0.6 · 5 players

BELBig

Bench-3.8 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestBEL betterWKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Belmont

Guards

J. Jenkins24 minJ. Smiley17 minI. West17 minM. Zobrist5 min · TRC. Haynes5 minA. Ristic3 min · TR

Forwards

K. Fish19 min · TRE. Dillon16 minG. Lemke2 minC. KnowlesNewC. GersmehlNew

Centers

V. Neugebauer8 min · TR

Western KY

Guards

T. Moore30 minN. Norgaard25 min · TRA. Boone25 minL. Hackman22 minS. Young19 min · TRK. Unseld11 min

Forwards

E. Erkins-Ford22 min · TRE. Walker16 min · TRM. KonareNewG. WeisNewJ. AdebayoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BEL83.5 #23

WKU77.9 #95

Points per possession

BEL1.18 #33

WKU1.09 #163

Pace (possessions)

BEL70.5 #94

WKU71.5 #52

Shooting

Effective FG%

BEL61.0 #1

WKU47.5 #327

3-point %

BEL41.0 #1

WKU33.4 #205

3-point attempt rate

BEL45.7 #51

WKU39.5 #184

Free throw rate

BEL32.5 #248

WKU41.2 #42

Possessions

Turnover rate

BEL18.0 #272

WKU14.5 #42

Offensive rebound rate

BEL28.8 #241

WKU31.8 #134

Assists per game

BEL18.5 #6

WKU12.9 #215

Defense

Points allowed

BEL74.1 #158

WKU77.0 #241

Points allowed per possession

BEL1.05 #95

WKU1.08 #155

Opponent effective FG%

BEL49.9 #93

WKU51.2 #169

Opponent 3-point %

BEL34.2 #197

WKU34.3 #205

Turnovers forced

BEL17.4 #126

WKU17.2 #134

Defensive rebound rate

BEL70.8 #118

WKU70.5 #135

Steals per game

BEL6.0 #241

WKU7.4 #90

Blocks per game

BEL3.5 #151

WKU2.3 #327

BEL		WKU
Scoring
83.5 #23	Points per game	77.9 #95
1.18 #33	Points per possession	1.09 #163
70.5 #94	Pace (possessions)	71.5 #52
Shooting
61.0 #1	Effective FG%	47.5 #327
41.0 #1	3-point %	33.4 #205
45.7 #51	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #184
32.5 #248	Free throw rate	41.2 #42
Possessions
18.0 #272	Turnover rate	14.5 #42
28.8 #241	Offensive rebound rate	31.8 #134
18.5 #6	Assists per game	12.9 #215
Defense
74.1 #158	Points allowed	77.0 #241
1.05 #95	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #155
49.9 #93	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #169
34.2 #197	Opponent 3-point %	34.3 #205
17.4 #126	Turnovers forced	17.2 #134
70.8 #118	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #135
6.0 #241	Steals per game	7.4 #90
3.5 #151	Blocks per game	2.3 #327

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Belmont

25-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Drake79–100
L@ Illinois St74–81
Wvs Evansville98–64
Wvs Indiana St87–70
W@ Murray St87–70

A week or more of rest.

Western KY

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St87–96
L@ FIU67–92
L@ Missouri St74–87
Wvs UTEP97–65
Wvs New Mexico St93–70

A week or more of rest.

Belmont Bruins at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

What could decide it: WKU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Belmont

Western KY

Western KY has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Belmont

Western KY