Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 7:30 PM ETMurphy Center · at MTSU

#154MTSUMTSU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tennessee Tech and MTSU
TNTC	This season	MTSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MTSU 79–69 · win probability MTSU 81%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MTSU has more of the edges

TNTC 1, MTSU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

TNTC has played the 353rd-hardest schedule, MTSU the 132nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

MTSUBig

MTSU offense vs TNTC defense

Offense 158th of 366 against a defense 288th, on the model’s ratings

MTSUBig

Three-pointers

TNTC hits 31.1% and allows 35.8%; MTSU hits 33.8% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 36.5% and 45.3% of their shots

MTSUSmall

TNTC offense vs MTSU defense

Offense 276th of 366 against a defense 167th, on the model’s ratings

TNTCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TNTC 35.5, MTSU 32.7. Allowed: TNTC 31.3, MTSU 35.7

MTSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TNTC 48.9 and allows 51.5; MTSU 51.6 and allows 51.0

MTSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TNTC 19.1%, MTSU 17.1%. Forced: TNTC 15.0%, MTSU 14.9%

MTSUSmall

Home court

MTSU at home. This season: MTSU 0-0 at home, TNTC 0-0 away

MTSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TNTC 31.3%, MTSU 30.7%. Defensive: TNTC 69.3%, MTSU 71.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TNTC 18%, MTSU 30%. Transfers in: TNTC 6, MTSU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: TNTC plays 68.3 a game (214th fastest), MTSU 68.3 (216th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MTSU -9.9	—
Total	—	148.2	—
Projected score	—	TNTC 69.1 · MTSU 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MTSU -5.8	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	TNTC 31.8 · MTSU 37.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TNTC WWWLL	14-14	50%	9-8	—
MTSU WLWWL	13-16	45%	4-8	—

Venue/role: TNTC away; MTSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TNTC OUUUO	14-14	50%	10-18
MTSU OOUUO	15-14	52%	14-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TNTC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
MTSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs SAM	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ ARIZ	No recent meeting

MTSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ BEL	L62–83LU
Dec 15	vs AUB	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee Tech

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L W L L L W W L L L L W L L L L W W W L L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1450%

W W L W L L W W W L L L L W L L L W W W W L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

U U U O O O O U O O O U U U U O O U O O O U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WKU	L 70-82	+14.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 7	@CLT	L 65-70	+12.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 17	vsWGA	L 59-61	-4.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 120
Nov 19	@UPST	W 88-84	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 26	@UK	L 54-104	+37.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 158
Nov 29	@UGA	L 81-123	+34.5	L −7.5	160.5	O 204
Dec 3	@LIP	L 80-83	+10.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WGA	W 87-59	+1.5	W +29.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsSEMO	W 85-74	+2.5	W +13.5	155.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsUTM	L 62-86	+2.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 30	vsTNST	L 76-88	+1.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 164
Jan 1	@LR	L 58-77	+1.5	L −17.5	144.5	U 135
Jan 8	@EIU	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	@WIU	W 59-54	-3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 15	vsUSI	L 54-71	-5.5	L −22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	vsMORE	L 70-76	-1.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 146
Jan 22	@LIN	L 68-89	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	@SIUE	L 58-62	+7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 120
Jan 31	vsLR	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	141.5	O 164
Feb 2	@TNST	W 90-85	+7.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 175
Feb 5	vsWIU	W 97-72	-9.5	W +15.5	143.5	O 169
Feb 7	vsEIU	L 54-60	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 12	@MORE	L 66-73	+4.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 139
Feb 14	@USI	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	vsSIUE	W 62-52	+1.5	W +11.5	134.5	U 114
Feb 21	vsLIN	W 72-57	+1.5	W +16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	@UTM	L 49-64	+7.5	L −7.5	134.5	U 113
Feb 28	@SEMO	L 73-89	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

+2.5

CLT

L 65-70

+7.5

WGA

L 59-61

−6.5

UPST

W 88-84

+6.5

L 54-104

−12.5

UGA

L 81-123

−7.5

LIP

L 80-83

+7.5

WGA

W 87-59

+29.5

SEMO

W 85-74

+13.5

UTM

L 62-86

−21.5

TNST

L 76-88

−10.5

L 58-77

−17.5

EIU

L 61-71

−11.5

WIU

W 59-54

+1.5

USI

L 54-71

−22.5

L 70-76

−7.5

LIN

L 68-89

−12.5

SIUE

L 58-62

+3.5

W 87-77

+11.5

TNST

W 90-85

+12.5

WIU

W 97-72

+15.5

EIU

L 54-60

−10.5

L 66-73

−2.5

USI

W 82-74

+6.5

SIUE

W 62-52

+11.5

LIN

W 72-57

+16.5

UTM

L 49-64

−7.5

SEMO

L 73-89

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

−1.5

CLT

L 65-70

−11.5

WGA

L 59-61

−32.5

UPST

W 88-84

+21.5

L 54-104

+0.5

UGA

L 81-123

+43.5

LIP

L 80-83

+10.5

WGA

W 87-59

−4.5

SEMO

W 85-74

+3.5

UTM

L 62-86

+2.5

TNST

L 76-88

+8.5

L 58-77

−9.5

EIU

L 61-71

−8.5

WIU

W 59-54

−30.5

USI

L 54-71

−17.5

L 70-76

+4.5

LIN

L 68-89

+5.5

SIUE

L 58-62

−15.5

W 87-77

+22.5

TNST

W 90-85

+21.5

WIU

W 97-72

+25.5

EIU

L 54-60

−26.5

L 66-73

−4.5

USI

W 82-74

+15.5

SIUE

W 62-52

−20.5

LIN

W 72-57

−22.5

UTM

L 49-64

−21.5

SEMO

L 73-89

+20.5

over 14under 14avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

MTSU

29 games played

Straight up

14-15

48% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1548%

W L W L L W L W L W W L W L W L L L L L W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W L L W W L L W L L L L L L L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1452%

O U O O U U U U U O U O U U O U O U O O O O U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 12	@EVAN	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 19	@MICH	L 61-86	+27.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 23	vsMUR	W 90-87	+6.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsGW	L 79-92	+9.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMCN	L 62-72	+9.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	vsUAB	W 76-61	+1.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 7	vsBEL	L 62-83	+3.5	L −17.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 17	vsKENN	W 68-67	-3.5	L −2.5	160.5	U 135
Dec 29	@HOU	L 60-69	+25.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 2	vsLT	W 88-51	-6.5	W +30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	vsSHSU	W 68-67	-4.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 135
Jan 8	@UTEP	L 80-83	-3.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	@NMSU	W 59-55	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 114
Jan 14	@LT	L 58-59	-3.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 117
Jan 17	vsMOST	W 90-87	-5.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 177
Jan 23	@JXST	L 58-75	-1.5	L −18.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 29	vsLIB	L 65-81	+1.5	L −14.5	136.5	O 146
Jan 31	vsWKU	L 60-65	-6.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 125
Feb 4	vsFIU	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 172
Feb 7	@DEL	L 88-89	-5.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 177
Feb 12	@KENN	W 90-87	+3.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 177
Feb 14	@WKU	L 80-82	+3.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 162
Feb 18	@SHSU	L 70-78	+3.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 21	vsDEL	W 78-66	-10.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 144
Feb 26	vsUTEP	W 77-67	-8.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 144
Feb 28	vsNMSU	W 86-85	-5.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 171
Mar 5	@FIU	W 73-67	+1.5	W +7.5	153.5	U 140
Mar 7	@MOST	W 75-63	+2.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 138
Mar 12	vsLT	L 69-80	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+7.5

MICH

L 61-86

+2.5

MUR

W 90-87

+9.5

L 79-92

−3.5

MCN

L 62-72

−0.5

UAB

W 76-61

+16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−17.5

KENN

W 68-67

−2.5

HOU

L 60-69

+16.5

W 88-51

+30.5

SHSU

W 68-67

−3.5

UTEP

L 80-83

−6.5

NMSU

W 59-55

+7.5

L 58-59

−4.5

MOST

W 90-87

−2.5

JXST

L 58-75

−18.5

LIB

L 65-81

−14.5

WKU

L 60-65

−11.5

FIU

L 84-88

−9.5

DEL

L 88-89

−6.5

KENN

W 90-87

+6.5

WKU

L 80-82

+1.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−4.5

DEL

W 78-66

+1.5

UTEP

W 77-67

+1.5

NMSU

W 86-85

−4.5

FIU

W 73-67

+7.5

MOST

W 75-63

+14.5

L 69-80

−12.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+8.5

MICH

L 61-86

−12.5

MUR

W 90-87

+15.5

L 79-92

+12.5

MCN

L 62-72

−13.5

UAB

W 76-61

−16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−8.5

KENN

W 68-67

−25.5

HOU

L 60-69

−9.5

W 88-51

+4.5

SHSU

W 68-67

−21.5

UTEP

L 80-83

+25.5

NMSU

W 59-55

−30.5

L 58-59

−14.5

MOST

W 90-87

+39.5

JXST

L 58-75

−0.5

LIB

L 65-81

+9.5

WKU

L 60-65

−15.5

FIU

L 84-88

+17.5

DEL

L 88-89

+43.5

KENN

W 90-87

+28.5

WKU

L 80-82

+16.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−3.5

DEL

W 78-66

+6.5

UTEP

W 77-67

+4.5

NMSU

W 86-85

+22.5

FIU

W 73-67

−13.5

MOST

W 75-63

−7.5

L 69-80

+14.5

over 15under 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Tennessee Tech 2, MTSU 2, even 1

Tennessee TechBetterMTSU

G T. Mosquera TR13.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55

TNTCSmall

G K. de Kovachich TR11.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 2 ast Score 40

G T. Owens7.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17

MTSUBig

G J. Carter10.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 63

G D. Hackett TR13.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 78

TNTCBig

G E. Rice TR6.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 43

G C. Newton TR10.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 55

Even

F O. Naveh TR11 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 52

G C. Hollenbeck TR5 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 6

MTSUSmall

C L. Jovanovic2.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26

Tennessee TechBetterMTSU

TNTC offense276th of 366 · -8.4

MTSUSmall

MTSU defense167th of 366 · -3.7

TNTC defense288th of 366 · -7.2

MTSUBig

MTSU offense158th of 366 · -4.7

Backcourt-4.8 · 5 players

MTSUSmall

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

MTSUSmall

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestTNTC betterMTSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tennessee Tech

Guards

T. Mosquera32 min · TRT. Owens28 minD. Hackett28 min · TRC. Newton26 min · TRC. Hollenbeck17 min · TRC. GonzalesNew

Forwards

D. Christensen13 min · TRM. Turner8 minC. Sanders8 min · TRD. GreenNewS. ArnoldNewK. FoxNew

MTSU

Guards

K. de Kovachich31 min · TRJ. Carter27 minE. Rice20 min · TRM. Whitlock11 minQ. BarnettNewJ. HowardNew

Forwards

O. Naveh29 min · TRJ. Hall7 minA. BoldenNew

Centers

L. Jovanovic14 minK. SilerNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TNTC70.3 #280

MTSU73.5 #216

Points per possession

TNTC1.03 #287

MTSU1.08 #195

Pace (possessions)

TNTC68.3 #214

MTSU68.3 #216

Shooting

Effective FG%

TNTC48.9 #293

MTSU51.6 #167

3-point %

TNTC31.1 #316

MTSU33.8 #183

3-point attempt rate

TNTC36.5 #238

MTSU45.3 #61

Free throw rate

TNTC35.5 #164

MTSU32.7 #245

Possessions

Turnover rate

TNTC19.1 #325

MTSU17.1 #214

Offensive rebound rate

TNTC31.3 #151

MTSU30.7 #171

Assists per game

TNTC11.0 #337

MTSU13.7 #168

Defense

Points allowed

TNTC75.6 #207

MTSU74.6 #180

Points allowed per possession

TNTC1.11 #231

MTSU1.09 #205

Opponent effective FG%

TNTC51.5 #186

MTSU51.0 #155

Opponent 3-point %

TNTC35.8 #295

MTSU34.0 #180

Turnovers forced

TNTC15.0 #285

MTSU14.9 #293

Defensive rebound rate

TNTC69.3 #192

MTSU71.5 #83

Steals per game

TNTC5.4 #312

MTSU5.8 #265

Blocks per game

TNTC2.7 #275

MTSU4.0 #76

TNTC		MTSU
Scoring
70.3 #280	Points per game	73.5 #216
1.03 #287	Points per possession	1.08 #195
68.3 #214	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #216
Shooting
48.9 #293	Effective FG%	51.6 #167
31.1 #316	3-point %	33.8 #183
36.5 #238	3-point attempt rate	45.3 #61
35.5 #164	Free throw rate	32.7 #245
Possessions
19.1 #325	Turnover rate	17.1 #214
31.3 #151	Offensive rebound rate	30.7 #171
11.0 #337	Assists per game	13.7 #168
Defense
75.6 #207	Points allowed	74.6 #180
1.11 #231	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #205
51.5 #186	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #155
35.8 #295	Opponent 3-point %	34.0 #180
15.0 #285	Turnovers forced	14.9 #293
69.3 #192	Defensive rebound rate	71.5 #83
5.4 #312	Steals per game	5.8 #265
2.7 #275	Blocks per game	4.0 #76

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tennessee Tech

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ SE Missouri73–89
L@ UT Martin49–64
Wvs Lindenwood Lions72–57
Wvs SIUE62–52
W@ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles82–74

A week or more of rest.

MTSU

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana Tech69–80
W@ Missouri St75–63
W@ FIU73–67
Wvs New Mexico St86–85
Wvs UTEP77–67

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

What could decide it: MTSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee Tech

MTSU

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Tennessee Tech

MTSU