1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. ARK @ UNC
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Arkansas Razorbacks at North Carolina Tar Heels

Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
@
#44UNCNorth Carolina
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ARKThis seasonUNC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARK 83–81 · win probability ARK 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 163.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

ARK 3, UNC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARKBig
Three-pointers
ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%; UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 33.0% and 42.2% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ARK plays 73.8 a game (12th fastest), UNC 69.0 (180th). Faster games mean more points
ARKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARK 12.2%, UNC 13.9%. Forced: ARK 15.5%, UNC 13.6%
UNCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8; UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4
UNCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARK 35.9, UNC 37.1. Allowed: ARK 31.2, UNC 23.8
Context
Schedule so far
ARK has played the 8th-hardest schedule, UNC the 61st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNCSmall
Home court
UNC at home. This season: UNC 0-0 at home, ARK 0-0 away
UNCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARK 32.0%, UNC 31.2%. Defensive: ARK 69.1%, UNC 72.2%
ARKSmall
ARK offense vs UNC defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
UNC offense vs ARK defense
Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARK 19%, UNC 20%. Transfers in: ARK 2, UNC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARK -2.6—
Total—163.8—
Projected score—ARK 83.2 · UNC 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARK -1.6—
1H total76.5—
1H projected scoreARK 39.1 · UNC 37.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: Arkansas 2, North Carolina 0, even 3
ArkansasBetterNorth Carolina
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
ARKSmall
G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
Even
G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
ARKSmall
F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85
ArkansasBetterNorth Carolina
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Even
UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
Even
UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestARK betterUNC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
North Carolina
Guards
N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min
Forwards
J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew
Centers
C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARKUNC
Scoring
90.2 #2Points per game79.7 #73
1.23 #3Points per possession1.16 #50
73.8 #12Pace (possessions)69.0 #180
Shooting
56.4 #16Effective FG%54.3 #57
38.2 #163-point %34.2 #159
33.0 #3153-point attempt rate42.2 #132
35.9 #155Free throw rate37.1 #127
Possessions
12.2 #1Turnover rate13.9 #20
32.0 #121Offensive rebound rate31.2 #159
17.2 #20Assists per game16.0 #47
Defense
81.0 #333Points allowed71.6 #97
1.09 #213Points allowed per possession1.04 #65
51.8 #201Opponent effective FG%48.4 #44
31.8 #54Opponent 3-point %34.7 #234
15.5 #246Turnovers forced13.6 #344
69.1 #197Defensive rebound rate72.2 #59
7.3 #96Steals per game5.4 #308
5.2 #12Blocks per game3.4 #167
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs VCU78–82
  • Lvs Clemson79–80
  • L@ Duke61–76
  • Wvs Clemson67–63
  • Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.