1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. STO @ PROV
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Stonehill Skyhawks at Providence Friars

Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence
#349STOStonehill
@
#52PROVProvidence
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
STOThis seasonPROV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PROV 89–59 · win probability PROV 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PROV has more of the edges

STO 0, PROV 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
STO has played the 352nd-hardest schedule, PROV the 31st. A record against a soft schedule means less
PROVBig
STO offense vs PROV defense
Offense 363rd of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings
PROVBig
PROV offense vs STO defense
Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 225th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: STO plays 67.6 a game (244th fastest), PROV 74.2 (10th). Faster games mean more points
PROVSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: STO 46.9 and allows 47.8; PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4
PROVSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: STO 19.4%, PROV 16.7%. Forced: STO 13.4%, PROV 13.1%
PROVSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: STO 27.3, PROV 36.7. Allowed: STO 30.3, PROV 32.7
PROVSmall
Three-pointers
STO hits 31.7% and allows 33.4%; PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 40.5% and 40.5% of their shots
PROVSmall
Home court
PROV at home. This season: PROV 0-0 at home, STO 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: STO 28%, PROV 13%. Transfers in: STO 6, PROV 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: STO 27.5%, PROV 31.7%. Defensive: STO 72.9%, PROV 69.2%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PROV -29.7—
Total—147.6—
Projected score—STO 58.9 · PROV 88.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPROV -17.5—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreSTO 25.7 · PROV 43.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Providence has the better starters

Position by position: Stonehill 0, Providence 4, even 1
StonehillBetterProvidence
G W. Batchelder8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
G A. Boldin TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1 ast Score 29
PROVBig
G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80
G D. Arlington TR2.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5
PROVBig
G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
G E. Greenberg TR2.3 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 0
PROVBig
G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90
G A. Allen TR3.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Score 15
PROVBig
G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81
StonehillBetterProvidence
STO offense363rd of 366 · -14.8
PROVBig
PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3
STO defense225th of 366 · -5.9
PROVBig
PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt-10.2 · 5 players
PROVBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-3.6 · 5 players
PROVBig
Bench+4.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestSTO betterPROV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Stonehill
Guards
W. Batchelder32 minA. Boldin18 min · TRD. Arlington14 min · TRE. Greenberg14 min · TRA. Allen14 min · TRT. Ruth11 min
Forwards
P. McGuinn9 minE. Steele4 min · TRJ. MedalieNewB. LeonsNew
Centers
D. ChengNew
Providence
Guards
R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR
Forwards
A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew
Centers
S. Aletan26 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
STOPROV
Scoring
64.2 #353Points per game85.3 #15
0.95 #357Points per possession1.15 #58
67.6 #244Pace (possessions)74.2 #10
Shooting
46.9 #339Effective FG%55.0 #37
31.7 #2943-point %36.4 #45
40.5 #1583-point attempt rate40.5 #157
27.3 #350Free throw rate36.7 #138
Possessions
19.4 #333Turnover rate16.7 #174
27.5 #282Offensive rebound rate31.7 #135
11.8 #298Assists per game14.0 #146
Defense
69.5 #56Points allowed84.0 #356
1.03 #57Points allowed per possession1.13 #292
47.8 #36Opponent effective FG%51.4 #179
33.4 #150Opponent 3-point %35.3 #265
13.4 #347Turnovers forced13.1 #352
72.9 #40Defensive rebound rate69.2 #195
4.7 #347Steals per game5.4 #313
4.0 #75Blocks per game3.9 #86
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stonehill

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Mercyhurst51–56
  • W@ Le Moyne81–71
  • Lvs Mercyhurst72–75
  • Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves103–77
  • Wvs Le Moyne77–68

A week or more of rest.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ St John's72–85
  • Wvs Butler91–81
  • L@ Georgetown79–80
  • Lvs Marquette56–78
  • W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.