1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. PITT @ MIZ
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Pittsburgh Panthers at Missouri Tigers

Mizzou Arena · at Missouri
#74PITTPitt
@
#54MIZMissouri
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PITTThis seasonMIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIZ 78–72 · win probability MIZ 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

PITT 1, MIZ 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIZBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: PITT 51.0 and allows 53.4; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5
MIZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PITT 30.4, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: PITT 30.9, MIZ 35.5
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: PITT plays 65.0 a game (345th fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points
PITTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PITT 33.9%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: PITT 71.9%, MIZ 68.3%
MIZSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PITT 3%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: PITT 10, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MIZSmall
Home court
MIZ at home. This season: MIZ 0-0 at home, PITT 0-0 away
Even
PITT offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 87th of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
PITT has played the 65th-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
PITT hits 33.4% and allows 35.2%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 42.6% and 36.4% of their shots
Even
MIZ offense vs PITT defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 59th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PITT 17.2%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: PITT 16.3%, MIZ 16.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIZ -6.3—
Total—149.3—
Projected score—PITT 71.5 · MIZ 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIZ -3.6—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scorePITT 33.1 · MIZ 36.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Pitt has the better starters

Position by position: Pitt 2, Missouri 0, even 3
PittBetterMissouri
G N. George TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 75
PITTSmall
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
G A. Sumler TR19.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 93
PITTSmall
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
F T. Rudovskii TR13.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 59
Even
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
F B. Ndongo TR11.8 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.4 ast Score 90
Even
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
C A. Mighty TR13.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 1 ast Score 71
Even
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
PittBetterMissouri
PITT offense87th of 366 · +0.2
Even
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
PITT defense59th of 366 · +1.3
Even
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players
PITTBig
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+5.4 · 3 players
PITTBig
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
MIZBig
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPITT betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pitt
Guards
N. George32 min · TRA. Sumler31 min · TRC. Hawkins27 min · TRJ. Powell16 min · TRJ. Bethea8 min · TRM. Moore6 min
Forwards
T. Rudovskii32 min · TRB. Ndongo27 min · TRA. Souare8 min · TRD. Diomande8 min · TRB. MayhewNewJ. NelsonNew
Centers
A. Mighty32 min · TR
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PITTMIZ
Scoring
70.5 #274Points per game79.2 #78
1.08 #181Points per possession1.15 #65
65.0 #345Pace (possessions)68.8 #191
Shooting
51.0 #193Effective FG%55.0 #36
33.4 #2063-point %35.0 #112
42.6 #1243-point attempt rate36.4 #240
30.4 #300Free throw rate42.1 #28
Possessions
17.2 #223Turnover rate17.7 #255
33.9 #72Offensive rebound rate34.9 #48
13.2 #197Assists per game14.2 #132
Defense
71.8 #101Points allowed75.5 #204
1.11 #237Points allowed per possession1.10 #224
53.4 #279Opponent effective FG%51.5 #183
35.2 #263Opponent 3-point %36.8 #341
16.3 #202Turnovers forced16.6 #182
71.9 #68Defensive rebound rate68.3 #238
6.5 #172Steals per game6.6 #162
3.1 #203Blocks per game3.5 #140
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pitt

13-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs NC State88–98
  • Wvs Stanford64–63
  • W@ Syracuse71–69
  • Lvs Florida St74–75
  • W@ California72–56

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.