1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Dec 11
  3. UNI @ UCI
NCAAB · Fri, Dec 11

Northern Iowa Panthers at UC Irvine Anteaters

Bren Events Center · at UC Irvine
#131UNINorthern Iowa
@
#149UCIUC Irvine
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNIThis seasonUCI
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCI 70–68 · win probability UCI 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 138.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UNI 4, UCI 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UNI plays 63.9 a game (361st fastest), UCI 71.5 (51st). Faster games mean more points
UCIBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNI 25.6, UCI 36.0. Allowed: UNI 29.6, UCI 26.7
UNIBig
Three-pointers
UNI hits 34.7% and allows 29.1%; UCI hits 33.6% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 39.1% and 28.0% of their shots
UNISmall
UCI offense vs UNI defense
Offense 187th of 366 against a defense 92nd, on the model’s ratings
UNISmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNI 14.5%, UCI 17.8%. Forced: UNI 18.0%, UCI 18.8%
UNISmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNI 53.8 and allows 47.5; UCI 49.5 and allows 45.9
Context
Schedule so far
UNI has played the 133rd-hardest schedule, UCI the 215th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCISmall
UNI offense vs UCI defense
Offense 204th of 366 against a defense 126th, on the model’s ratings
UCISmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNI 10%, UCI 44%. Transfers in: UNI 5, UCI 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UCISmall
Home court
UCI at home. This season: UCI 0-0 at home, UNI 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNI 21.8%, UCI 30.9%. Defensive: UNI 73.5%, UCI 68.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCI -1.3—
Total—138.1—
Projected score—UNI 68.4 · UCI 69.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCI -0.6—
1H total64.6—
1H projected scoreUNI 32 · UCI 32.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UC Irvine has the better starters

Position by position: Northern Iowa 0, UC Irvine 1, even 4
Northern IowaBetterUC Irvine
G T. McCubbin TR9.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 21
Even
G T. Isaac6 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17
G G. Uelmen TR17.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90
Even
G N. Cooper TR11.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 89
G C. Vis TR5.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
Even
G J. Jester6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 63
F I. Johnson-Arigu TR10.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 67
UCISmall
F H. Carrington7.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84
F I. Smikle TR2.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
Even
F E. Chol4.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 28
Northern IowaBetterUC Irvine
UNI offense204th of 366 · -6.3
UCISmall
UCI defense126th of 366 · -2.3
UNI defense92nd of 366 · -0.3
UNISmall
UCI offense187th of 366 · -5.8
Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-0.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players
Bench-1.6 · 2 players
Even
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUNI betterUCI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Northern Iowa
Guards
T. McCubbin30 min · TRG. Uelmen29 min · TRC. Vis15 min · TRG. Hutchins7 minR. BornNewC. CourbatNew
Forwards
I. Johnson-Arigu22 min · TRI. Smikle14 min · TRK. Pock12 minJ. WilsonNewJ. IsebaertNewW. GerdesNew
UC Irvine
Guards
T. Isaac27 minN. Cooper25 min · TRJ. Jester16 minB. Egbo4 minL. RedfieldNewT. LeeNew
Forwards
H. Carrington17 minE. Chol17 minM. HodgesNewP. SpeesNewD. BenthoNew
Centers
N. Emeneke8 minO. Rioux2 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNIUCI
Scoring
68.6 #303Points per game74.2 #188
1.08 #198Points per possession1.04 #278
63.9 #361Pace (possessions)71.5 #51
Shooting
53.8 #73Effective FG%49.5 #268
34.7 #1363-point %33.6 #191
39.1 #1893-point attempt rate28.0 #359
25.6 #362Free throw rate36.0 #152
Possessions
14.5 #41Turnover rate17.8 #257
21.8 #357Offensive rebound rate30.9 #166
14.6 #114Assists per game14.8 #103
Defense
62.5 #2Points allowed69.4 #54
0.98 #12Points allowed per possession0.97 #7
47.5 #31Opponent effective FG%45.9 #9
29.1 #3Opponent 3-point %33.7 #167
18.0 #97Turnovers forced18.8 #56
73.5 #24Defensive rebound rate68.8 #213
6.2 #212Steals per game7.8 #51
3.1 #211Blocks per game5.8 #5
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Northern Iowa

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St John's53–79
  • Wvs UIC84–69
  • Wvs Bradley73–69
  • Wvs Illinois St74–52
  • Wvs Evansville68–59

A week or more of rest.

UC Irvine

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNLV72–75
  • Lvs Hawai'i64–71
  • Wvs CSU Northridge93–78
  • Wvs UC Davis79–69
  • Wvs Cal Poly107–85

A week or more of rest.