Robert Morris Colonials at Northern Iowa Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 1:00 PM ETMcLeod Center · at Northern Iowa

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Robert Morris and Northern Iowa
RMU	This season	UNI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNI 74–67 · win probability UNI 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNI has more of the edges

RMU 1, UNI 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RMU 18.6%, UNI 14.5%. Forced: RMU 15.8%, UNI 18.0%

Context

Schedule so far

RMU has played the 280th-hardest schedule, UNI the 133rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

RMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RMU 37.5%, UNI 21.8%. Defensive: RMU 71.2%, UNI 73.5%

UNIBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: RMU 28.0, UNI 25.6. Allowed: RMU 40.1, UNI 29.6

UNISmall

RMU offense vs UNI defense

Offense 179th of 366 against a defense 92nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: RMU plays 67.5 a game (256th fastest), UNI 63.9 (361st). Faster games mean more points

UNISmall

Home court

UNI at home. This season: UNI 0-0 at home, RMU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RMU 32%, UNI 10%. Transfers in: RMU 4, UNI 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

UNI offense vs RMU defense

Offense 204th of 366 against a defense 183rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: RMU 54.9 and allows 50.0; UNI 53.8 and allows 47.5

Even

Three-pointers

RMU hits 38.0% and allows 33.2%; UNI hits 34.7% and allows 29.1%. Threes are 40.7% and 39.1% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNI -6.4	—
Total	—	140.7	—
Projected score	—	RMU 67.1 · UNI 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNI -3.7	—
1H total	65.8	—
1H projected score	RMU 31.1 · UNI 34.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RMU WWWWL	20-11	65%	9-6	—
UNI LWLWL	19-16	54%	8-8	—

Venue/role: RMU away; UNI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RMU OUUUU	16-15	52%	20-11
UNI UUOOU	14-21	40%	22-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RMU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%
UNI	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Robert Morris

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ IUIN	W74–58WU
Dec 5	vs YSU	W68–53WU
Dec 9	vs DUQ	No recent meeting

Northern Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ KU	No recent meeting
Dec 11	@ UCI	W70–69WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Robert Morris

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

20-11

65% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

L W L L W W W W L W W W L W L L L W W L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1165%

L W L W W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U U O U U O O O O O O O O O U U O U U U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@IOWA	L 69-101	+22.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 6	@DRKE	W 81-79	+7.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 20	@SBU	L 61-75	+11.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 23	@MONM	L 70-71	+2.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsUIC	W 88-74	+1.5	W +15.5	151.5	O 162
Nov 28	vsSUU	W 61-54	-8.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 115
Nov 30	vsSTET	W 80-62	-11.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 142
Dec 4	@GB	W 80-78	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MILW	L 72-74	+4.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 13	vsTOL	W 75-70	+1.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 17	vsYSU	W 80-77	-2.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 20	@SFPA	W 79-70	-13.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 29	vsNKU	L 77-79	+1.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 2	@DETM	W 85-77	-3.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 4	@OAK	L 73-96	+1.5	L −21.5	161.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsPFW	L 74-79	-4.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 15	@IUIN	L 93-96	-5.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 189
Jan 17	@NKU	W 92-89	+7.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 22	vsMILW	W 88-76	-4.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsGB	L 67-71	-6.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 28	vsIUIN	W 74-58	-8.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 132
Jan 31	@PFW	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 154
Feb 4	vsWRST	W 72-66	+1.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	@YSU	W 72-66	+3.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 12	@CLE	W 85-68	-3.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 15	vsOAK	W 93-69	-1.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 162
Feb 22	@WRST	W 81-68	+4.5	W +17.5	146.5	O 149
Feb 25	vsDETM	W 73-62	-8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsCLE	W 83-64	-12.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 4	vsYSU	W 68-53	-3.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 121
Mar 9	vsDETM	L 64-70	-4.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

−9.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+9.5

SBU

L 61-75

−2.5

MONM

L 70-71

+1.5

UIC

W 88-74

+15.5

SUU

W 61-54

−1.5

STET

W 80-62

+6.5

W 80-78

+0.5

MILW

L 72-74

+2.5

TOL

W 75-70

+6.5

YSU

W 80-77

+0.5

SFPA

W 79-70

−4.5

NKU

L 77-79

−0.5

DETM

W 85-77

+4.5

OAK

L 73-96

−21.5

PFW

L 74-79

−9.5

IUIN

L 93-96

−8.5

NKU

W 92-89

+10.5

MILW

W 88-76

+7.5

L 67-71

−10.5

IUIN

W 74-58

+7.5

PFW

L 71-83

−9.5

WRST

W 72-66

+7.5

YSU

W 72-66

+9.5

CLE

W 85-68

+13.5

OAK

W 93-69

+22.5

WRST

W 81-68

+17.5

DETM

W 73-62

+2.5

CLE

W 83-64

+6.5

YSU

W 68-53

+11.5

DETM

L 64-70

−10.5

covered 20didn’t cover 11avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

+33.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+8.5

SBU

L 61-75

−10.5

MONM

L 70-71

−7.5

UIC

W 88-74

+10.5

SUU

W 61-54

−37.5

STET

W 80-62

−0.5

W 80-78

+17.5

MILW

L 72-74

−7.5

TOL

W 75-70

−9.5

YSU

W 80-77

+16.5

SFPA

W 79-70

+3.5

NKU

L 77-79

+6.5

DETM

W 85-77

+13.5

OAK

L 73-96

+7.5

PFW

L 74-79

+6.5

IUIN

L 93-96

+28.5

NKU

W 92-89

+27.5

MILW

W 88-76

+11.5

L 67-71

−4.5

IUIN

W 74-58

−30.5

PFW

L 71-83

+8.5

WRST

W 72-66

−9.5

YSU

W 72-66

−5.5

CLE

W 85-68

−1.5

OAK

W 93-69

+5.5

WRST

W 81-68

+2.5

DETM

W 73-62

−15.5

CLE

W 83-64

−10.5

YSU

W 68-53

−22.5

DETM

L 64-70

−12.5

over 16under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northern Iowa

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-21

40% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

W W W W W W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W L W L W W L L W W W W L W L L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-2140%

U U U U O U U O U U U U O U O O O U U O U U U O O O O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 18	vsNIU	W 70-57	-19.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 22	@UCI	W 70-69	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsLUC	W 72-51	-8.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsTLSA	L 60-63	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsWICH	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsOAK	W 75-63	-8.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 17	@UIC	W 60-54	-5.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 114
Dec 22	@SMC	L 58-63	+11.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 29	vsVAL	W 58-48	-8.5	W +1.5	131.5	U 106
Jan 1	vsINST	W 75-66	-10.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@EVAN	W 62-48	-4.5	W +9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsBEL	L 65-78	-2.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 143
Jan 10	@BRAD	L 69-75	+4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 144
Jan 13	vsUIC	L 61-69	-6.5	L −14.5	128.5	O 130
Jan 17	@VAL	L 44-54	-1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 98
Jan 21	@ILST	L 54-59	+6.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	vsMUR	W 81-76	+1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 28	@SIU	L 50-65	-1.5	L −16.5	130.5	U 115
Jan 31	vsEVAN	W 71-55	-11.5	W +4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 6	vsBRAD	W 61-49	-3.5	W +8.5	134.5	U 110
Feb 9	@MUR	W 89-60	+4.5	W +33.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 12	@BEL	L 86-91	+4.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 177
Feb 15	vsDRKE	W 86-62	-8.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	@INST	W 81-60	-5.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsSIU	L 57-59	-6.5	L −8.5	134.5	U 116
Feb 25	vsILST	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	@DRKE	W 75-53	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsEVAN	W 68-59	-13.5	L −4.5	127.5	U 127
Mar 6	vsILST	W 74-52	-1.5	W +20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsBRAD	W 73-69	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	O 142
Mar 8	vsUIC	W 84-69	-2.5	W +12.5	125.5	O 153
Mar 20	vsSJU	L 53-79	+10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

NIU

W 70-57

−6.5

UCI

W 70-69

+3.5

LUC

W 72-51

+12.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−5.5

WICH

L 69-74

−6.5

OAK

W 75-63

+3.5

UIC

W 60-54

+0.5

SMC

L 58-63

+6.5

VAL

W 58-48

+1.5

INST

W 75-66

−1.5

EVAN

W 62-48

+9.5

BEL

L 65-78

−15.5

BRAD

L 69-75

−1.5

UIC

L 61-69

−14.5

VAL

L 44-54

−11.5

ILST

L 54-59

+1.5

MUR

W 81-76

+6.5

SIU

L 50-65

−16.5

EVAN

W 71-55

+4.5

BRAD

W 61-49

+8.5

MUR

W 89-60

+33.5

BEL

L 86-91

−0.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+15.5

INST

W 81-60

+15.5

SIU

L 57-59

−8.5

ILST

L 69-71

−6.5

DRKE

W 75-53

+17.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−4.5

ILST

W 74-52

+20.5

BRAD

W 73-69

−0.5

UIC

W 84-69

+12.5

SJU

L 53-79

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

NIU

W 70-57

−19.5

UCI

W 70-69

+0.5

LUC

W 72-51

−11.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−14.5

WICH

L 69-74

+7.5

OAK

W 75-63

−11.5

UIC

W 60-54

−19.5

SMC

L 58-63

−11.5

VAL

W 58-48

−25.5

INST

W 75-66

+5.5

EVAN

W 62-48

−21.5

BEL

L 65-78

+5.5

BRAD

L 69-75

+12.5

UIC

L 61-69

+1.5

VAL

L 44-54

−32.5

ILST

L 54-59

−19.5

MUR

W 81-76

+11.5

SIU

L 50-65

−15.5

EVAN

W 71-55

−2.5

BRAD

W 61-49

−24.5

MUR

W 89-60

+3.5

BEL

L 86-91

+38.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+9.5

INST

W 81-60

+4.5

SIU

L 57-59

−18.5

ILST

L 69-71

+7.5

DRKE

W 75-53

−9.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−0.5

ILST

W 74-52

−4.5

BRAD

W 73-69

+14.5

UIC

W 84-69

+27.5

SJU

L 53-79

−1.5

over 14under 21avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Robert Morris 2, Northern Iowa 2, even 1

Robert MorrisBetterNorthern Iowa

G A. Valentine TR12 pts · 4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 71

RMUBig

G T. McCubbin TR9.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 21

G D. Livingston9.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23

UNIBig

G G. Uelmen TR17.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

G T. Smith6.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30

UNISmall

G C. Vis TR5.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

F J. Dunkley TR12.4 pts · 6.7 reb · 1 ast Score 74

Even

F I. Johnson-Arigu TR10.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 67

F K. Ugwuakazi TR5.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 63

RMUBig

F I. Smikle TR2.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14

Robert MorrisBetterNorthern Iowa

RMU offense179th of 366 · -5.5

UNISmall

UNI defense92nd of 366 · -0.3

RMU defense183rd of 366 · -4.2

Even

UNI offense204th of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-2.8 · 3 players

UNISmall

Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

RMUSmall

Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players

Bench-0.3 · 3 players

RMUSmall

Bench-1.6 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestRMU betterUNI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Robert Morris

Guards

A. Valentine33 min · TRD. Livingston26 minT. Smith19 minK. Garris16 min · TRE. Cooke9 minL. SloaneNew

Forwards

J. Dunkley29 min · TRK. Ugwuakazi19 min · TRS. Obenjo9 minD. StolbetskiyNewB. OderinloNew

Northern Iowa

Guards

T. McCubbin30 min · TRG. Uelmen29 min · TRC. Vis15 min · TRG. Hutchins7 minR. BornNewC. CourbatNew

Forwards

I. Johnson-Arigu22 min · TRI. Smikle14 min · TRK. Pock12 minJ. WilsonNewJ. IsebaertNewW. GerdesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RMU76.8 #122

UNI68.6 #303

Points per possession

RMU1.14 #67

UNI1.08 #198

Pace (possessions)

RMU67.5 #256

UNI63.9 #361

Shooting

Effective FG%

RMU54.9 #39

UNI53.8 #73

3-point %

RMU38.0 #18

UNI34.7 #136

3-point attempt rate

RMU40.7 #154

UNI39.1 #189

Free throw rate

RMU28.0 #343

UNI25.6 #362

Possessions

Turnover rate

RMU18.6 #305

UNI14.5 #41

Offensive rebound rate

RMU37.5 #11

UNI21.8 #357

Assists per game

RMU17.6 #13

UNI14.6 #114

Defense

Points allowed

RMU73.4 #139

UNI62.5 #2

Points allowed per possession

RMU1.08 #174

UNI0.98 #12

Opponent effective FG%

RMU50.0 #100

UNI47.5 #31

Opponent 3-point %

RMU33.2 #135

UNI29.1 #3

Turnovers forced

RMU15.8 #230

UNI18.0 #97

Defensive rebound rate

RMU71.2 #98

UNI73.5 #24

Steals per game

RMU5.5 #292

UNI6.2 #212

Blocks per game

RMU2.5 #308

UNI3.1 #211

RMU		UNI
Scoring
76.8 #122	Points per game	68.6 #303
1.14 #67	Points per possession	1.08 #198
67.5 #256	Pace (possessions)	63.9 #361
Shooting
54.9 #39	Effective FG%	53.8 #73
38.0 #18	3-point %	34.7 #136
40.7 #154	3-point attempt rate	39.1 #189
28.0 #343	Free throw rate	25.6 #362
Possessions
18.6 #305	Turnover rate	14.5 #41
37.5 #11	Offensive rebound rate	21.8 #357
17.6 #13	Assists per game	14.6 #114
Defense
73.4 #139	Points allowed	62.5 #2
1.08 #174	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #12
50.0 #100	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #31
33.2 #135	Opponent 3-point %	29.1 #3
15.8 #230	Turnovers forced	18.0 #97
71.2 #98	Defensive rebound rate	73.5 #24
5.5 #292	Steals per game	6.2 #212
2.5 #308	Blocks per game	3.1 #211

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Robert Morris

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Detroit Mercy64–70
Wvs Youngstown St68–53
Wvs Cleveland St83–64
Wvs Detroit Mercy73–62
W@ Wright St81–68

A week or more of rest.

Northern Iowa

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St John's53–79
Wvs UIC84–69
Wvs Bradley73–69
Wvs Illinois St74–52
Wvs Evansville68–59

A week or more of rest.

Robert Morris Colonials at Northern Iowa Panthers

What could decide it: UNI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Robert Morris

Northern Iowa

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Robert Morris

Northern Iowa