1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. ELON @ NCSU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Elon Phoenix at NC State Wolfpack

Lenovo Center · at NC State
#232ELONElon
@
#48NCSUNC State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ELONThis seasonNCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCSU 89–66 · win probability NCSU 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCSU has more of the edges

ELON 0, NCSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NCSUBig
NCSU offense vs ELON defense
Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 235th, on the model’s ratings
NCSUBig
ELON offense vs NCSU defense
Offense 225th of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ELON has played the 187th-hardest schedule, NCSU the 51st. A record against a soft schedule means less
NCSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ELON 16.0%, NCSU 13.1%. Forced: ELON 16.4%, NCSU 18.2%
NCSUSmall
Three-pointers
ELON hits 34.3% and allows 36.5%; NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 43.2% and 43.4% of their shots
NCSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ELON 52.2 and allows 54.0; NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7
NCSUSmall
Home court
NCSU at home. This season: NCSU 0-0 at home, ELON 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: ELON plays 69.0 a game (178th fastest), NCSU 70.2 (103rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ELON 33.5, NCSU 35.1. Allowed: ELON 34.6, NCSU 36.9
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ELON 32.3%, NCSU 28.2%. Defensive: ELON 66.5%, NCSU 69.5%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ELON 30%, NCSU 28%. Transfers in: ELON 5, NCSU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NCSU -22.9—
Total—154.5—
Projected score—ELON 65.8 · NCSU 88.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNCSU -13.5—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreELON 29.4 · NCSU 42.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC State has the better starters

Position by position: Elon 0, NC State 5, even 0
ElonBetterNC State
G R. Pettus11 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28
NCSUBig
G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83
G B. Cokley12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 60
NCSUSmall
G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
G I. Mbeng TR4.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 12
NCSUBig
G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90
G C. Thrower TR5.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33
NCSUBig
F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95
F J. Dalton TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
NCSUSmall
F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
ElonBetterNC State
ELON offense225th of 366 · -6.9
NCSUBig
NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3
ELON defense235th of 366 · -6.2
NCSUBig
NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt-5.7 · 4 players
NCSUBig
Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
NCSUBig
Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 4 players
NCSUBig
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestELON betterNCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Elon
Guards
R. Pettus28 minB. Cokley27 minI. Mbeng23 min · TRC. Thrower17 min · TRR. Villar12 min · TRK. DixonNew
Forwards
J. Dalton13 min · TRI. Garmendia3 minA. Olander1 minM. ŠarenacNewB. SehlhorstNewC. ZhuNew
Centers
H. Harding7 min · TR
NC State
Guards
P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR
Forwards
K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ELONNCSU
Scoring
76.8 #123Points per game83.2 #25
1.12 #111Points per possession1.18 #30
69.0 #178Pace (possessions)70.2 #103
Shooting
52.2 #137Effective FG%55.0 #35
34.3 #1543-point %38.8 #6
43.2 #1073-point attempt rate43.4 #104
33.5 #222Free throw rate35.1 #175
Possessions
16.0 #136Turnover rate13.1 #7
32.3 #116Offensive rebound rate28.2 #258
14.6 #108Assists per game15.4 #70
Defense
79.3 #307Points allowed76.3 #224
1.14 #316Points allowed per possession1.09 #186
54.0 #300Opponent effective FG%52.7 #256
36.5 #328Opponent 3-point %35.5 #281
16.4 #196Turnovers forced18.2 #90
66.5 #307Defensive rebound rate69.5 #181
6.6 #157Steals per game8.1 #37
3.0 #231Blocks per game3.4 #159
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Elon

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs William & Mary62–72
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington57–76
  • L@ Monmouth57–73
  • L@ Towson56–58
  • Lvs NC A&T82–102

A week or more of rest.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas66–68
  • Lvs Virginia74–81
  • Wvs Pitt98–88
  • Lvs Stanford84–85
  • Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.