1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. SC @ NCSU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

South Carolina Gamecocks at NC State Wolfpack

Lenovo Center · at NC State
#79SCSouth Carolina
@
#48NCSUNC State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SCThis seasonNCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCSU 81–71 · win probability NCSU 79%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCSU has more of the edges

SC 1, NCSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NCSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SC 14.4%, NCSU 13.1%. Forced: SC 14.6%, NCSU 18.2%
NCSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SC 50.3 and allows 51.6; NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7
SCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SC 36.7, NCSU 35.1. Allowed: SC 34.0, NCSU 36.9
NCSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SC 27.2%, NCSU 28.2%. Defensive: SC 67.9%, NCSU 69.5%
NCSUSmall
Home court
NCSU at home. This season: NCSU 0-0 at home, SC 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SC plays 68.8 a game (195th fastest), NCSU 70.2 (103rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
SC hits 31.1% and allows 31.8%; NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 44.4% and 43.4% of their shots
Even
SC offense vs NCSU defense
Offense 98th of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SC 13%, NCSU 28%. Transfers in: SC 6, NCSU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
NCSU offense vs SC defense
Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 53rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SC has played the 54th-hardest schedule, NCSU the 51st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NCSU -9.2—
Total—152.1—
Projected score—SC 71.4 · NCSU 80.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNCSU -5.3—
1H total71.1—
1H projected scoreSC 32.9 · NCSU 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC State has the better starters

Position by position: South Carolina 0, NC State 3, even 2
South CarolinaBetterNC State
G S. Blakeney TR14.3 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71
Even
G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83
G K. Mincy TR14.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.9 ast Score 81
Even
G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
F J. Necas TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 46
NCSUBig
G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90
F C. Heide TR5.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40
NCSUBig
F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95
F A. Bieliauskas TR4.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 36
NCSUSmall
F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
South CarolinaBetterNC State
SC offense98th of 366 · -0.8
Even
NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3
SC defense53rd of 366 · +1.6
Even
NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt+2.5 · 2 players
NCSUBig
Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 3 players
NCSUBig
Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 4 players
NCSUBig
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSC betterNCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Carolina
Guards
S. Blakeney34 min · TRK. Mincy34 min · TRG. Polk13 minD. Hannah13 min · TRE. Sparkman4 minM. JohnsonNew
Forwards
J. Necas25 min · TRC. Heide23 min · TRA. Bieliauskas20 min · TRH. Assemian10 minH. LopezNewJ. FernandezNew
NC State
Guards
P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR
Forwards
K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SCNCSU
Scoring
74.9 #165Points per game83.2 #25
1.09 #161Points per possession1.18 #30
68.8 #195Pace (possessions)70.2 #103
Shooting
50.3 #226Effective FG%55.0 #35
31.1 #3173-point %38.8 #6
44.4 #803-point attempt rate43.4 #104
36.7 #137Free throw rate35.1 #175
Possessions
14.4 #39Turnover rate13.1 #7
27.2 #289Offensive rebound rate28.2 #258
13.3 #190Assists per game15.4 #70
Defense
76.5 #228Points allowed76.3 #224
1.11 #252Points allowed per possession1.09 #186
51.6 #188Opponent effective FG%52.7 #256
31.8 #56Opponent 3-point %35.5 #281
14.6 #314Turnovers forced18.2 #90
67.9 #263Defensive rebound rate69.5 #181
5.5 #295Steals per game8.1 #37
2.4 #317Blocks per game3.4 #159
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Carolina

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma74–86
  • W@ Ole Miss64–61
  • Lvs Tennessee59–78
  • L@ Georgia68–87
  • Lvs Kentucky63–72

A week or more of rest.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas66–68
  • Lvs Virginia74–81
  • Wvs Pitt98–88
  • Lvs Stanford84–85
  • Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.