Mercyhurst Lakers at West Virginia Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 7:00 PM ETHope Coliseum · at West Virginia

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mercyhurst and West Virginia
MERC	This season	WVU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WVU 83–55 · win probability WVU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WVU has more of the edges

MERC 1, WVU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WVUBig

MERC offense vs WVU defense

Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, WVU the 62nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

WVUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, WVU 35.1. Allowed: MERC 42.6, WVU 29.3

WVUBig

WVU offense vs MERC defense

Offense 77th of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings

WVUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, WVU 30.5%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, WVU 71.4%

MERCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, WVU 16.8%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, WVU 17.8%

WVUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; WVU 51.6 and allows 48.5

WVUSmall

Home court

WVU at home. This season: WVU 0-0 at home, MERC 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; WVU hits 33.0% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 31.1% and 43.0% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, WVU 23%. Transfers in: MERC 3, WVU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), WVU 65.3 (336th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WVU -27.8	—
Total	—	138.2	—
Projected score	—	MERC 55.2 · WVU 83

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WVU -16.4	—
1H total	64.7	—
1H projected score	MERC 24.1 · WVU 40.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MERC WWWWL	21-10	68%	12-6	—
WVU WLWWW	18-17	51%	10-8	—

Venue/role: MERC away; WVU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MERC OOUUO	15-16	48%	15-17
WVU UUOOO	13-22	37%	21-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MERC	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
WVU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mercyhurst

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ MORG	W86–72WO
Dec 7	@ COPP	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ SYR	L62–76WO

West Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs VT	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs PITT	W71–49WU
Dec 13	vs COPP	W91–49WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MERC 0–2 WVUWVU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · WVU has won the last 2 meetings · MERC 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2025-26	MERC 38 @ WVU 70	WVU -21.5	WVU W
Dec 22, 2024-25	MERC 46 @ WVU 67	WVU -31.5	MERC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercyhurst

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

21-10

68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

L W L W L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1068%

W W L W W W L–L W W L W W W L W W L W L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1648%

U U U O O U U–U O O O U U O U O U U U O O U U O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NU	L 47-70	+26.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 6	@LUC	W 73-65	+21.5	W +29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 12	@CAN	L 55-58	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 15	vsMORG	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 20	@M-OH	L 71-76	+15.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	@MRSH	L 60-69	+11.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129
Nov 30	@WVU	L 38-70	+21.5	L −10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 5	@LAF	L 71-79	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@DAV	L 47-80	+11.5	L −21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 17	@SYR	L 62-76	+24.5	W +10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsBING	W 82-61	-7.5	W +13.5	132.5	O 143
Jan 2	vsFDU	L 67-74	-5.5	L −12.5	133.5	O 141
Jan 4	vsLEM	W 74-60	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 8	@LIU	L 58-60	+8.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 10	@WAG	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsSTO	L 57-62	-4.5	L −9.5	128.5	U 119
Jan 19	vsCCSU	W 79-61	-1.5	W +16.5	132.5	O 140
Jan 23	@NHVN	W 61-57	-1.5	W +2.5	122.5	U 118
Jan 25	vsCHST	W 61-59	-9.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsNHVN	W 70-51	-5.5	W +13.5	122.5	U 121
Jan 31	@CHST	L 74-78	-2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 152
Feb 5	vsSFPA	W 98-89	-6.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 187
Feb 7	@FDU	L 52-55	+2.5	L −0.5	131.5	U 107
Feb 12	@LEM	L 57-58	+2.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 115
Feb 14	@SFPA	W 94-79	-2.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 173
Feb 19	vsWAG	L 80-83	-3.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsLIU	W 91-83	+3.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 174
Feb 26	@CCSU	L 78-80	+3.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 28	@STO	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 147
Mar 4	vsFDU	W 70-61	-3.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 131
Mar 7	vsSTO	W 56-51	-4.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 107
Mar 10	@LIU	L 70-79	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-70

+3.5

LUC

W 73-65

+29.5

CAN

L 55-58

−4.5

MORG

W 86-72

+7.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+10.5

MRSH

L 60-69

+2.5

WVU

L 38-70

−10.5

DAV

L 47-80

−21.5

SYR

L 62-76

+10.5

BING

W 82-61

+13.5

FDU

L 67-74

−12.5

LEM

W 74-60

+11.5

LIU

L 58-60

+6.5

WAG

W 70-69

+2.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+16.5

NHVN

W 61-57

+2.5

CHST

W 61-59

−7.5

NHVN

W 70-51

+13.5

CHST

L 74-78

−6.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+2.5

FDU

L 52-55

−0.5

LEM

L 57-58

+1.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+12.5

WAG

L 80-83

−6.5

LIU

W 91-83

+11.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+1.5

STO

W 75-72

+1.5

FDU

W 70-61

+5.5

STO

W 56-51

+0.5

LIU

L 70-79

−4.5

covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-70

−23.5

LUC

W 73-65

−6.5

CAN

L 55-58

−22.5

MORG

W 86-72

+11.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+7.5

MRSH

L 60-69

−18.5

WVU

L 38-70

−19.5

DAV

L 47-80

−5.5

SYR

L 62-76

+6.5

BING

W 82-61

+10.5

FDU

L 67-74

+7.5

LEM

W 74-60

−7.5

LIU

L 58-60

−21.5

WAG

W 70-69

+6.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+7.5

NHVN

W 61-57

−4.5

CHST

W 61-59

−11.5

NHVN

W 70-51

−1.5

CHST

L 74-78

+22.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+49.5

FDU

L 52-55

−24.5

LEM

L 57-58

−23.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+34.5

WAG

L 80-83

+29.5

LIU

W 91-83

+33.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+16.5

STO

W 75-72

+9.5

FDU

W 70-61

−0.5

STO

W 56-51

−27.5

LIU

L 70-79

+14.5

over 15under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

West Virginia

35 games played

Straight up

21-14

60% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-22

37% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1460%

W W W W W L L W W L W L W L W W L W W L W L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1751%

L L W W L W L W W L W W L L W W L W W L L L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2237%

U U U U O O O U O U O O U U U O U U U U U U U U O U U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsMSM	W 70-54	-19.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 6	vsCAM	W 73-65	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsLEH	W 69-47	-17.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 13	vsPITT	W 71-49	-5.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsLAF	W 81-59	-24.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	vsCLEM	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsXAV	L 68-78	-5.5	L −15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 30	vsMERC	W 70-38	-21.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 3	vsCOPP	W 91-49	-31.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	vsWAKE	L 66-75	-2.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 9	vsLR	W 90-58	-27.5	W +4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsOSU	L 88-89	+3.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 177
Dec 22	vsMVSU	W 86-51	-42.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 2	@ISU	L 59-80	+16.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 139
Jan 6	vsCIN	W 62-60	+1.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsKU	W 86-75	+2.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 13	@HOU	L 48-77	+13.5	L −15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 17	vsCOLO	W 72-61	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 133
Jan 21	@ASU	W 75-63	+1.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 138
Jan 24	@ARIZ	L 53-88	+17.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsKSU	W 59-54	-7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 113
Jan 31	vsBAY	L 53-63	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 116
Feb 5	@CIN	W 59-54	+5.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 113
Feb 8	vsTTU	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 133
Feb 14	@UCF	W 74-67	+3.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 18	vsUTAH	L 56-61	-10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 21	@TCU	L 54-60	+4.5	L −1.5	133.5	U 114
Feb 24	@OKST	L 84-91	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 175
Feb 28	vsBYU	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 150
Mar 3	@KSU	L 63-65	-3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 6	vsUCF	W 77-62	-4.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 139
Mar 11	vsBYU	L 48-68	+3.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsSTAN	W 82-77	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 159
Apr 4	vsCREI	W 87-70	-1.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 157
Apr 5	vsOU	W 89-82	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−3.5

CAM

W 73-65

−7.5

LEH

W 69-47

+4.5

PITT

W 71-49

+16.5

LAF

W 81-59

−2.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+1.5

XAV

L 68-78

−15.5

MERC

W 70-38

+10.5

COPP

W 91-49

+10.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−11.5

W 90-58

+4.5

OSU

L 88-89

+2.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−7.5

ISU

L 59-80

−4.5

CIN

W 62-60

+3.5

W 86-75

+13.5

HOU

L 48-77

−15.5

COLO

W 72-61

+4.5

ASU

W 75-63

+13.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−17.5

KSU

W 59-54

−2.5

BAY

L 53-63

−12.5

CIN

W 59-54

+10.5

TTU

L 63-70

−2.5

UCF

W 74-67

+10.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−15.5

TCU

L 54-60

−1.5

OKST

L 84-91

−5.5

BYU

W 79-71

+10.5

KSU

L 63-65

−5.5

UCF

W 77-62

+10.5

BYU

L 48-68

−16.5

STAN

W 82-77

+2.5

CREI

W 87-70

+15.5

W 89-82

+10.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−12.5

CAM

W 73-65

−0.5

LEH

W 69-47

−23.5

PITT

W 71-49

−14.5

LAF

W 81-59

+4.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+4.5

XAV

L 68-78

+5.5

MERC

W 70-38

−19.5

COPP

W 91-49

+5.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−2.5

W 90-58

+15.5

OSU

L 88-89

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−0.5

ISU

L 59-80

−3.5

CIN

W 62-60

−10.5

W 86-75

+21.5

HOU

L 48-77

−2.5

COLO

W 72-61

−8.5

ASU

W 75-63

−7.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−2.5

KSU

W 59-54

−33.5

BAY

L 53-63

−23.5

CIN

W 59-54

−14.5

TTU

L 63-70

−6.5

UCF

W 74-67

+0.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−16.5

TCU

L 54-60

−19.5

OKST

L 84-91

+30.5

BYU

W 79-71

+8.5

KSU

L 63-65

−15.5

UCF

W 77-62

−3.5

BYU

L 48-68

−25.5

STAN

W 82-77

+23.5

CREI

W 87-70

+19.5

W 89-82

+29.5

over 13under 22avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

West Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: Mercyhurst 0, West Virginia 4, even 1

MercyhurstBetterWest Virginia

G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61

WVUSmall

G F. Bizjack TR17.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 88

G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6

WVUBig

G S. Traore TR9 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 46

G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Somerville TR8 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54

F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48

WVUBig

F B. Lorient11.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 91

F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2

WVUBig

F J. Buchanan TR12.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

MercyhurstBetterWest Virginia

MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9

WVUBig

WVU defense19th of 366 · +5.5

MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9

WVUBig

WVU offense77th of 366 · +0.9

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

WVUBig

Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

WVUBig

Frontcourt+6.2 · 2 players

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

WVUSmall

Bench+1.6 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestMERC betterWVU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mercyhurst

Guards

J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew

Forwards

T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew

West Virginia

Guards

F. Bizjack34 min · TRS. Traore29 min · TRM. Somerville26 min · TRJ. Sanon21 min · TRA. Jenkins16 minM. FeenaneNew

Forwards

B. Lorient29 minJ. Buchanan28 min · TRM. OlejaszNew

Centers

M. Sylla21 min · TRA. DioumNewA. SeiniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MERC68.3 #310

WVU70.6 #271

Points per possession

MERC1.04 #260

WVU1.08 #183

Pace (possessions)

MERC65.6 #327

WVU65.3 #336

Shooting

Effective FG%

MERC49.5 #269

WVU51.6 #166

3-point %

MERC32.1 #276

WVU33.0 #227

3-point attempt rate

MERC31.1 #338

WVU43.0 #118

Free throw rate

MERC25.6 #361

WVU35.1 #173

Possessions

Turnover rate

MERC14.3 #35

WVU16.8 #188

Offensive rebound rate

MERC26.4 #312

WVU30.5 #178

Assists per game

MERC14.0 #148

WVU12.8 #228

Defense

Points allowed

MERC68.7 #43

WVU65.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

MERC1.04 #76

WVU1.01 #34

Opponent effective FG%

MERC50.1 #107

WVU48.5 #50

Opponent 3-point %

MERC32.3 #80

WVU34.3 #201

Turnovers forced

MERC18.6 #68

WVU17.8 #108

Defensive rebound rate

MERC70.1 #153

WVU71.4 #86

Steals per game

MERC7.0 #130

WVU6.3 #195

Blocks per game

MERC3.8 #94

WVU3.1 #204

MERC		WVU
Scoring
68.3 #310	Points per game	70.6 #271
1.04 #260	Points per possession	1.08 #183
65.6 #327	Pace (possessions)	65.3 #336
Shooting
49.5 #269	Effective FG%	51.6 #166
32.1 #276	3-point %	33.0 #227
31.1 #338	3-point attempt rate	43.0 #118
25.6 #361	Free throw rate	35.1 #173
Possessions
14.3 #35	Turnover rate	16.8 #188
26.4 #312	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #178
14.0 #148	Assists per game	12.8 #228
Defense
68.7 #43	Points allowed	65.7 #11
1.04 #76	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #34
50.1 #107	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #50
32.3 #80	Opponent 3-point %	34.3 #201
18.6 #68	Turnovers forced	17.8 #108
70.1 #153	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #86
7.0 #130	Steals per game	6.3 #195
3.8 #94	Blocks per game	3.1 #204

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Long Island70–79
Wvs Stonehill56–51
Wvs FDU70–61
W@ Stonehill75–72
L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.

West Virginia

21-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Oklahoma89–82
Wvs Creighton87–70
Wvs Stanford82–77
Lvs BYU48–68
Wvs UCF77–62

A week or more of rest.

Mercyhurst Lakers at West Virginia Mountaineers

What could decide it: WVU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercyhurst

West Virginia

West Virginia has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mercyhurst

West Virginia