1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. JAX @ UCF
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Jacksonville Dolphins at UCF Knights

Addition Financial Arena · at UCF
#223JAXJacksonville
@
#39UCFUCF
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
JAXThis seasonUCF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCF 91–67 · win probability UCF 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 157.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCF has more of the edges

JAX 0, UCF 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
JAX has played the 247th-hardest schedule, UCF the 41st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCFBig
UCF offense vs JAX defense
Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 210th, on the model’s ratings
UCFBig
Three-pointers
JAX hits 31.8% and allows 36.3%; UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 37.4% and 34.8% of their shots
UCFBig
JAX offense vs UCF defense
Offense 232nd of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: JAX plays 65.7 a game (322nd fastest), UCF 71.2 (63rd). Faster games mean more points
UCFSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: JAX 50.0 and allows 54.8; UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1
UCFSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: JAX 17.2%, UCF 16.0%. Forced: JAX 15.0%, UCF 15.7%
UCFSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: JAX 31.7%, UCF 35.0%. Defensive: JAX 70.9%, UCF 71.2%
UCFSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: JAX 32.8, UCF 30.5. Allowed: JAX 42.7, UCF 34.9
UCFSmall
Home court
UCF at home. This season: UCF 0-0 at home, JAX 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: JAX 27%, UCF 20%. Transfers in: JAX 6, UCF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCF -23.8—
Total—157.2—
Projected score—JAX 66.7 · UCF 90.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCF -14.0—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreJAX 29.7 · UCF 43.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UCF has the better starters

Position by position: Jacksonville 0, UCF 3, even 2
JacksonvilleBetterUCF
G C. Williams TR16.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 65
Even
G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52
G J. Phillips TR15.5 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 59
UCFBig
G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100
G H. Wood11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
UCFSmall
F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
G E. Sterck6.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23
UCFBig
F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82
F J. Morrow TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 58
Even
F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70
JacksonvilleBetterUCF
JAX offense232nd of 366 · -7.1
UCFBig
UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4
JAX defense210th of 366 · -5.4
UCFBig
UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0
Backcourt-1.9 · 4 players
UCFBig
Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
UCFBig
Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Bench-1.1 · 4 players
UCFBig
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestJAX betterUCF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Jacksonville
Guards
C. Williams33 min · TRJ. Phillips31 min · TRH. Wood28 minE. Sterck25 minR. Loux1 minL. BuckinghamNew
Forwards
J. Morrow21 min · TRR. Stirling15 min · TRN. Turner6 min · TRJ. Newell2 min · TR
Centers
S. MbingazoNew
UCF
Guards
C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew
Forwards
L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew
Centers
J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
JAXUCF
Scoring
69.5 #293Points per game80.7 #53
1.06 #237Points per possession1.13 #77
65.7 #322Pace (possessions)71.2 #63
Shooting
50.0 #232Effective FG%52.6 #123
31.8 #2893-point %36.2 #49
37.4 #2233-point attempt rate34.8 #281
32.8 #242Free throw rate30.5 #295
Possessions
17.2 #222Turnover rate16.0 #137
31.7 #137Offensive rebound rate35.0 #47
11.1 #335Assists per game15.7 #56
Defense
75.2 #194Points allowed78.3 #274
1.14 #313Points allowed per possession1.10 #219
54.8 #325Opponent effective FG%52.1 #221
36.3 #318Opponent 3-point %33.9 #176
15.0 #290Turnovers forced15.7 #241
70.9 #115Defensive rebound rate71.2 #96
6.3 #206Steals per game5.6 #285
2.8 #261Blocks per game3.0 #225
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jacksonville

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bellarmine79–82
  • W@ North Florida85–61
  • Wvs Stetson89–85
  • Lvs Austin Peay61–65
  • L@ FGCU84–86

A week or more of rest.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCLA71–75
  • Lvs Arizona59–81
  • Wvs Cincinnati66–65
  • L@ West Virginia62–77
  • Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.