American University Eagles at UCF Knights: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ETAddition Financial Arena · at UCF

#39UCFUCF

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: American and UCF
AMER	This season	UCF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCF 88–68 · win probability UCF 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCF has more of the edges

AMER 2, UCF 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

AMER has played the 263rd-hardest schedule, UCF the 41st. A record against a soft schedule means less

UCFBig

Three-pointers

AMER hits 33.0% and allows 35.5%; UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 46.5% and 34.8% of their shots

UCFBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AMER 26.9%, UCF 35.0%. Defensive: AMER 70.6%, UCF 71.2%

AMERBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AMER 96%, UCF 20%. Transfers in: AMER 0, UCF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

AMERBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AMER 15.6%, UCF 16.0%. Forced: AMER 19.2%, UCF 15.7%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: AMER plays 66.7 a game (289th fastest), UCF 71.2 (63rd). Faster games mean more points

UCFSmall

AMER offense vs UCF defense

Offense 201st of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings

UCFSmall

UCF offense vs AMER defense

Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 122nd, on the model’s ratings

UCFSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: AMER 28.7, UCF 30.5. Allowed: AMER 42.1, UCF 34.9

UCFSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: AMER 51.5 and allows 54.4; UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1

UCFSmall

Home court

UCF at home. This season: UCF 0-0 at home, AMER 0-0 away

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCF -20.1	—
Total	—	155.7	—
Projected score	—	AMER 67.8 · UCF 87.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCF -11.8	—
1H total	72.8	—
1H projected score	AMER 30.5 · UCF 42.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AMER WWLLL	16-14	53%	8-7	—
UCF LLWLW	16-17	48%	8-11	—

Venue/role: AMER away; UCF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AMER UUOUO	15-15	50%	14-16
UCF OUUUU	13-20	39%	21-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AMER	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
UCF	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

American

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ GW	L67–107LO
Dec 13	@ UMES	W78–60WO

UCF

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ IU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

American

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L W L L W L W W W L L W W L L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W L W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O O O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@BU	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@COLG	L 62-64	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsHC	L 73-84	-8.5	L −19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsNAVY	W 65-51	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 18	@ARMY	W 78-67	-4.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	vsCOLG	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	@HC	W 76-67	-4.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@L-MD	L 68-77	-4.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	vsLAF	L 65-67	-5.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsBUCK	L 59-60	-7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	@NAVY	L 73-82	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 11	@LEH	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	vsARMY	W 75-63	-9.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@BUCK	W 75-57	-3.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	@LAF	W 75-61	-3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsLEH	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBU	L 65-68	-3.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	@BU	L 73-75	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

W 64-62

+3.5

COLG

L 62-64

+3.5

L 73-84

−19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

+16.5

ARMY

W 78-67

+6.5

COLG

W 70-66

+2.5

W 76-67

+4.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−13.5

LAF

L 65-67

−7.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−8.5

NAVY

L 73-82

−4.5

LEH

L 82-90

−9.5

ARMY

W 75-63

+2.5

BUCK

W 75-57

+14.5

LAF

W 75-61

+10.5

LEH

L 73-78

−12.5

L 65-68

−6.5

L 73-75

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

W 64-62

−16.5

COLG

L 62-64

−22.5

L 73-84

+19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

−23.5

ARMY

W 78-67

−2.5

COLG

W 70-66

−10.5

W 76-67

+3.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−2.5

LAF

L 65-67

−10.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−22.5

NAVY

L 73-82

+20.5

LEH

L 82-90

+31.5

ARMY

W 75-63

−6.5

BUCK

W 75-57

−8.5

LAF

W 75-61

−5.5

LEH

L 73-78

+10.5

L 65-68

−7.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCF

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W L L W W W L L L W W W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L W W L W L L W W W L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-2039%

O O U U O U O U U U O O U U U U U U O U O U O O U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHOF	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 8	vsVAN	L 93-105	+10.5	L −1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 11	vsFAMU	W 97-60	-23.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 14	@TA&M	W 86-74	+10.5	W +22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 17	vsOAK	W 87-83	-13.5	L −9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPITT	W 77-67	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsQUIN	W 102-91	-13.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 193
Nov 29	vsVMI	W 82-57	-25.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 7	vsTOW	W 86-61	-9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 17	vsMER	W 81-63	-16.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 144
Dec 20	vsFGCU	W 102-80	-17.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 182
Dec 23	vsFAU	W 85-80	-8.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 165
Jan 3	vsKU	W 81-75	+4.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 6	@OKST	L 76-87	+1.5	L −9.5	175.5	U 163
Jan 11	vsCIN	W 73-72	-2.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 14	@KSU	W 82-73	+2.5	W +11.5	170.5	U 155
Jan 17	vsARIZ	L 77-84	+9.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 161
Jan 20	@ISU	L 57-87	+14.5	L −15.5	156.5	U 144
Jan 24	@COLO	W 95-86	+3.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 181
Jan 27	vsASU	W 79-76	-6.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsTTU	W 88-80	+5.5	W +13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 4	@HOU	L 55-79	+15.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 8	@CIN	L 72-92	+4.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 164
Feb 14	vsWVU	L 67-74	-3.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 17	vsTCU	W 82-71	+1.5	W +12.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	@UTAH	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 144
Feb 24	@BYU	W 97-84	+14.5	W +27.5	162.5	O 181
Feb 28	vsBAY	L 86-87	-1.5	L −2.5	159.5	O 173
Mar 3	vsOKST	L 104-111	-8.5	L −15.5	167.5	O 215
Mar 6	@WVU	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 139
Mar 11	vsCIN	W 66-65	+3.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 131
Mar 12	vsARIZ	L 59-81	+15.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 140
Mar 20	vsUCLA	L 71-75	+5.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

−4.5

VAN

L 93-105

−1.5

FAMU

W 97-60

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-74

+22.5

OAK

W 87-83

−9.5

PITT

W 77-67

+11.5

QUIN

W 102-91

−2.5

VMI

W 82-57

−0.5

TOW

W 86-61

+15.5

MER

W 81-63

+1.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+4.5

FAU

W 85-80

−3.5

W 81-75

+10.5

OKST

L 76-87

−9.5

CIN

W 73-72

−1.5

KSU

W 82-73

+11.5

ARIZ

L 77-84

+2.5

ISU

L 57-87

−15.5

COLO

W 95-86

+12.5

ASU

W 79-76

−3.5

TTU

W 88-80

+13.5

HOU

L 55-79

−8.5

CIN

L 72-92

−15.5

WVU

L 67-74

−10.5

TCU

W 82-71

+12.5

UTAH

W 73-71

+0.5

BYU

W 97-84

+27.5

BAY

L 86-87

−2.5

OKST

L 104-111

−15.5

WVU

L 62-77

−10.5

CIN

W 66-65

+4.5

ARIZ

L 59-81

−6.5

UCLA

L 71-75

+1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

+19.5

VAN

L 93-105

+31.5

FAMU

W 97-60

−12.5

TA&M

W 86-74

−12.5

OAK

W 87-83

+6.5

PITT

W 77-67

−5.5

QUIN

W 102-91

+30.5

VMI

W 82-57

−20.5

TOW

W 86-61

−1.5

MER

W 81-63

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+20.5

FAU

W 85-80

+2.5

W 81-75

−1.5

OKST

L 76-87

−12.5

CIN

W 73-72

−5.5

KSU

W 82-73

−15.5

ARIZ

L 77-84

−4.5

ISU

L 57-87

−12.5

COLO

W 95-86

+21.5

ASU

W 79-76

−6.5

TTU

W 88-80

+8.5

HOU

L 55-79

−12.5

CIN

L 72-92

+17.5

WVU

L 67-74

+0.5

TCU

W 82-71

−1.5

UTAH

W 73-71

−10.5

BYU

W 97-84

+18.5

BAY

L 86-87

+13.5

OKST

L 104-111

+47.5

WVU

L 62-77

−3.5

CIN

W 66-65

−18.5

ARIZ

L 59-81

−19.5

UCLA

L 71-75

−5.5

over 13under 20avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UCF has the better starters

Position by position: American 0, UCF 4, even 1

AmericanBetterUCF

G W. Nausadis7.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 25

UCFSmall

G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52

G M. Collins13.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

Even

G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100

F G. Jones12.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 55

UCFSmall

F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87

F M. Mayock8.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 36

UCFBig

F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82

F J. Iturbe10.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 55

UCFSmall

F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70

AmericanBetterUCF

AMER offense201st of 366 · -6.3

UCFSmall

UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4

AMER defense122nd of 366 · -2.1

UCFSmall

UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0

Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players

UCFBig

Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

UCFBig

Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

UCFBig

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestAMER betterUCF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

American

Guards

W. Nausadis23 minM. Collins22 minK. Sebastian22 minD. Hogans6 minJ. Anderson2 minM. Casey1 min

Forwards

G. Jones31 minM. Mayock29 minJ. Iturbe26 minC. McDonald18 minC. Eagan11 minN. JonesNew

UCF

Guards

C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew

Forwards

L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew

Centers

J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AMER72.0 #242

UCF80.7 #53

Points per possession

AMER1.08 #190

UCF1.13 #77

Pace (possessions)

AMER66.7 #289

UCF71.2 #63

Shooting

Effective FG%

AMER51.5 #169

UCF52.6 #123

3-point %

AMER33.0 #235

UCF36.2 #49

3-point attempt rate

AMER46.5 #39

UCF34.8 #281

Free throw rate

AMER28.7 #335

UCF30.5 #295

Possessions

Turnover rate

AMER15.6 #110

UCF16.0 #137

Offensive rebound rate

AMER26.9 #299

UCF35.0 #47

Assists per game

AMER12.5 #248

UCF15.7 #56

Defense

Points allowed

AMER72.7 #124

UCF78.3 #274

Points allowed per possession

AMER1.09 #200

UCF1.10 #219

Opponent effective FG%

AMER54.4 #313

UCF52.1 #221

Opponent 3-point %

AMER35.5 #283

UCF33.9 #176

Turnovers forced

AMER19.2 #40

UCF15.7 #241

Defensive rebound rate

AMER70.6 #127

UCF71.2 #96

Steals per game

AMER7.3 #100

UCF5.6 #285

Blocks per game

AMER1.4 #363

UCF3.0 #225

AMER		UCF
Scoring
72.0 #242	Points per game	80.7 #53
1.08 #190	Points per possession	1.13 #77
66.7 #289	Pace (possessions)	71.2 #63
Shooting
51.5 #169	Effective FG%	52.6 #123
33.0 #235	3-point %	36.2 #49
46.5 #39	3-point attempt rate	34.8 #281
28.7 #335	Free throw rate	30.5 #295
Possessions
15.6 #110	Turnover rate	16.0 #137
26.9 #299	Offensive rebound rate	35.0 #47
12.5 #248	Assists per game	15.7 #56
Defense
72.7 #124	Points allowed	78.3 #274
1.09 #200	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #219
54.4 #313	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #221
35.5 #283	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #176
19.2 #40	Turnovers forced	15.7 #241
70.6 #127	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #96
7.3 #100	Steals per game	5.6 #285
1.4 #363	Blocks per game	3.0 #225

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

American

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston U73–75
Lvs Boston U65–68
Lvs Lehigh73–78
W@ Lafayette75–61
W@ Bucknell75–57

A week or more of rest.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UCLA71–75
Lvs Arizona59–81
Wvs Cincinnati66–65
L@ West Virginia62–77
Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.

American University Eagles at UCF Knights

What could decide it: UCF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

American

UCF

UCF has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

American

UCF