1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 6
  3. WAKE vs MASS
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 6

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Massachusetts Minutemen

MassMutual Center · Neutral site
#89WAKEWake Forest
vs
#209MASSUMass
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WAKEThis seasonMASS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WAKE 83–71 · win probability WAKE 86%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WAKE has more of the edges

WAKE 4, MASS 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MASSBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WAKE 30.1%, MASS 33.3%. Defensive: WAKE 67.0%, MASS 73.9%
WAKEBig
WAKE offense vs MASS defense
Offense 80th of 366 against a defense 248th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WAKE has played the 64th-hardest schedule, MASS the 181st. A record against a soft schedule means less
WAKESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WAKE 15.5%, MASS 17.8%. Forced: WAKE 17.7%, MASS 16.9%
WAKESmall
MASS offense vs WAKE defense
Offense 170th of 366 against a defense 96th, on the model’s ratings
MASSSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WAKE 9%, MASS 46%. Transfers in: WAKE 6, MASS 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
WAKESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: WAKE 35.2, MASS 37.0. Allowed: WAKE 35.7, MASS 44.6
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: WAKE plays 70.2 a game (112th fastest), MASS 72.7 (21st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
WAKE hits 34.1% and allows 32.9%; MASS hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 43.6% and 35.4% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: WAKE 52.7 and allows 51.8; MASS 53.1 and allows 52.9
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WAKE -12.3—
Total—154.2—
Projected score—WAKE 83.2 · MASS 71

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWAKE -7.4—
1H total72.0—
1H projected scoreWAKE 39.7 · MASS 32.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Wake Forest has the better starters

Position by position: Wake Forest 3, UMass 1, even 1
Wake ForestBetterUMass
G K. Kennedy TR18.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.2 ast Score 91
WAKEBig
G D. Carbuccia6.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 29
G J. Ray TR11.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 56
WAKESmall
G J. Ndjigue6.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34
G J. McDowell TR3.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 40
Even
G J. Clayton TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36
F R. Nyeri TR8.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 34
MASSSmall
F J. Wang TR8.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 62
F X. Pintelon TR5.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 47
WAKEBig
F D. Wimbley2.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 0
Wake ForestBetterUMass
WAKE offense80th of 366 · +0.5
WAKEBig
MASS defense248th of 366 · -6.5
WAKE defense96th of 366 · -0.5
WAKESmall
MASS offense170th of 366 · -5.2
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
WAKEBig
Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-2.5 · 2 players
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Even
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestWAKE betterMASS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wake Forest
Guards
K. Kennedy37 min · TRJ. Ray29 min · TRJ. McDowell17 min · TRI. Carr13 minA. Beard2 minW. Underwood2 min
Forwards
R. Nyeri26 min · TRX. Pintelon18 min · TRV. Ricchiuti2 minJ. AbsonNewV. ChaudhriNewG. PlacideNew
Centers
A. Dorn9 min · TR
UMass
Guards
D. Carbuccia28 minJ. Ndjigue27 minJ. Clayton18 min · TRR. Castineyra3 minJ. EngelNewC. HaileyNew
Forwards
J. Wang20 min · TRD. Wimbley14 minL. Damjanac10 minD. Clerc9 minA. AhmedNewC. SyllaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WAKEMASS
Scoring
78.8 #83Points per game79.9 #68
1.12 #94Points per possession1.10 #144
70.2 #112Pace (possessions)72.7 #21
Shooting
52.7 #117Effective FG%53.1 #99
34.1 #1663-point %35.2 #100
43.6 #993-point attempt rate35.4 #265
35.2 #170Free throw rate37.0 #130
Possessions
15.5 #107Turnover rate17.8 #263
30.1 #196Offensive rebound rate33.3 #80
14.4 #123Assists per game16.7 #30
Defense
76.9 #239Points allowed78.8 #288
1.10 #214Points allowed per possession1.09 #189
51.8 #202Opponent effective FG%52.9 #262
32.9 #117Opponent 3-point %33.0 #121
17.7 #114Turnovers forced16.9 #162
67.0 #298Defensive rebound rate73.9 #20
7.7 #59Steals per game6.6 #164
3.5 #136Blocks per game2.2 #334
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wake Forest

18-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St75–78
  • Wvs Navy82–72
  • Lvs Clemson62–71
  • Wvs Virginia Tech95–89
  • Wvs California80–73

A week or more of rest.

UMass

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo67–77
  • Wvs Miami OH87–83
  • Wvs Ohio94–82
  • L@ Bowling Green62–81
  • L@ Ball State73–74

A week or more of rest.