1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. JAX @ USF
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

Jacksonville Dolphins at South Florida Bulls

Yuengling Center · at South Florida
#223JAXJacksonville
@
#84USFSouth Florida
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
JAXThis seasonUSF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USF 86–68 · win probability USF 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USF has more of the edges

JAX 0, USF 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USFBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: JAX 17.2%, USF 15.1%. Forced: JAX 15.0%, USF 19.1%
Context
Schedule so far
JAX has played the 247th-hardest schedule, USF the 89th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: JAX plays 65.7 a game (322nd fastest), USF 74.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
USFBig
USF offense vs JAX defense
Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 210th, on the model’s ratings
USFBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: JAX 50.0 and allows 54.8; USF 50.6 and allows 48.8
USFBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: JAX 32.8, USF 40.4. Allowed: JAX 42.7, USF 39.0
USFBig
JAX offense vs USF defense
Offense 232nd of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings
USFSmall
Three-pointers
JAX hits 31.8% and allows 36.3%; USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 37.4% and 43.8% of their shots
USFSmall
Home court
USF at home. This season: USF 0-0 at home, JAX 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: JAX 27%, USF 14%. Transfers in: JAX 6, USF 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: JAX 31.7%, USF 38.1%. Defensive: JAX 70.9%, USF 68.1%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USF -17.9—
Total—153.8—
Projected score—JAX 67.9 · USF 85.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSF -10.5—
1H total71.9—
1H projected scoreJAX 30.7 · USF 41.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Jacksonville 1, South Florida 2, even 2
JacksonvilleBetterSouth Florida
G C. Williams TR16.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 65
Even
G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
G J. Phillips TR15.5 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 59
Even
G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72
G H. Wood11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
USFSmall
G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80
G E. Sterck6.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23
USFBig
G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73
F J. Morrow TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 58
JAXSmall
F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41
JacksonvilleBetterSouth Florida
JAX offense232nd of 366 · -7.1
USFSmall
USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1
JAX defense210th of 366 · -5.4
USFBig
USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7
Backcourt-1.9 · 4 players
USFBig
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
Bench-1.1 · 4 players
Even
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestJAX betterUSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Jacksonville
Guards
C. Williams33 min · TRJ. Phillips31 min · TRH. Wood28 minE. Sterck25 minR. Loux1 minL. BuckinghamNew
Forwards
J. Morrow21 min · TRR. Stirling15 min · TRN. Turner6 min · TRJ. Newell2 min · TR
Centers
S. MbingazoNew
South Florida
Guards
S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR
Forwards
R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew
Centers
T. Diawara3 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
JAXUSF
Scoring
69.5 #293Points per game86.8 #6
1.06 #237Points per possession1.17 #42
65.7 #322Pace (possessions)74.4 #9
Shooting
50.0 #232Effective FG%50.6 #209
31.8 #2893-point %32.5 #255
37.4 #2233-point attempt rate43.8 #93
32.8 #242Free throw rate40.4 #55
Possessions
17.2 #222Turnover rate15.1 #73
31.7 #137Offensive rebound rate38.1 #7
11.1 #335Assists per game16.8 #28
Defense
75.2 #194Points allowed76.5 #230
1.14 #313Points allowed per possession1.03 #54
54.8 #325Opponent effective FG%48.8 #58
36.3 #318Opponent 3-point %34.5 #218
15.0 #290Turnovers forced19.1 #42
70.9 #115Defensive rebound rate68.1 #252
6.3 #206Steals per game9.0 #8
2.8 #261Blocks per game4.0 #72
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jacksonville

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bellarmine79–82
  • W@ North Florida85–61
  • Wvs Stetson89–85
  • Lvs Austin Peay61–65
  • L@ FGCU84–86

A week or more of rest.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisville79–83
  • Wvs Wichita St70–55
  • Wvs Charlotte86–64
  • Wvs Charlotte83–60
  • W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.