Mercyhurst Lakers at Morgan State Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETHill Field House · at Morgan St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mercyhurst and Morgan St
MERC	This season	MORG
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MERC 74–73 · win probability MERC 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MERC 2, MORG 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MERCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, MORG 17.8%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, MORG 16.5%

MORGBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, MORG 42.7. Allowed: MERC 42.6, MORG 50.9

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), MORG 71.1 (73rd). Faster games mean more points

MERCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; MORG 45.8 and allows 51.7

MORGSmall

Home court

MORG at home. This season: MORG 0-0 at home, MERC 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, MORG 30.7%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, MORG 64.8%

Even

MORG offense vs MERC defense

Offense 293rd of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, MORG 36%. Transfers in: MERC 3, MORG 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

MERC offense vs MORG defense

Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 360th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; MORG hits 31.7% and allows 31.5%. Threes are 31.1% and 35.2% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, MORG the 360th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MERC -1.1	—
Total	—	147.5	—
Projected score	—	MERC 74.3 · MORG 73.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MERC -0.8	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	MERC 34.9 · MORG 34.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MERC WWWWL	21-10	68%	12-6	—
MORG WLWLL	15-12	56%	8-4	—

Venue/role: MERC away; MORG home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MERC OOUUO	15-16	48%	15-17
MORG OUOUO	16-11	59%	11-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MERC	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
MORG	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mercyhurst

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	@ COPP	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ SYR	L62–76WO

Morgan St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ GMU	L53–90LU
Dec 15	@ MD	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MERC 2–0 MORGMERC leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MERC has won the last 2 meetings · MERC 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2025-26	MORG 72 @ MERC 86	MERC -6.5	MERC W
Nov 6, 2024-25	MERC 78 @ MORG 73	MORG -7.5	MERC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercyhurst

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

21-10

68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

L W L W L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1068%

W W L W W W L–L W W L W W W L W W L W L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1648%

U U U O O U U–U O O O U U O U O U U U O O U U O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NU	L 47-70	+26.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 6	@LUC	W 73-65	+21.5	W +29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 12	@CAN	L 55-58	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 15	vsMORG	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 20	@M-OH	L 71-76	+15.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	@MRSH	L 60-69	+11.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129
Nov 30	@WVU	L 38-70	+21.5	L −10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 5	@LAF	L 71-79	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@DAV	L 47-80	+11.5	L −21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 17	@SYR	L 62-76	+24.5	W +10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsBING	W 82-61	-7.5	W +13.5	132.5	O 143
Jan 2	vsFDU	L 67-74	-5.5	L −12.5	133.5	O 141
Jan 4	vsLEM	W 74-60	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 8	@LIU	L 58-60	+8.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 10	@WAG	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsSTO	L 57-62	-4.5	L −9.5	128.5	U 119
Jan 19	vsCCSU	W 79-61	-1.5	W +16.5	132.5	O 140
Jan 23	@NHVN	W 61-57	-1.5	W +2.5	122.5	U 118
Jan 25	vsCHST	W 61-59	-9.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsNHVN	W 70-51	-5.5	W +13.5	122.5	U 121
Jan 31	@CHST	L 74-78	-2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 152
Feb 5	vsSFPA	W 98-89	-6.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 187
Feb 7	@FDU	L 52-55	+2.5	L −0.5	131.5	U 107
Feb 12	@LEM	L 57-58	+2.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 115
Feb 14	@SFPA	W 94-79	-2.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 173
Feb 19	vsWAG	L 80-83	-3.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsLIU	W 91-83	+3.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 174
Feb 26	@CCSU	L 78-80	+3.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 28	@STO	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 147
Mar 4	vsFDU	W 70-61	-3.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 131
Mar 7	vsSTO	W 56-51	-4.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 107
Mar 10	@LIU	L 70-79	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-70

+3.5

LUC

W 73-65

+29.5

CAN

L 55-58

−4.5

MORG

W 86-72

+7.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+10.5

MRSH

L 60-69

+2.5

WVU

L 38-70

−10.5

DAV

L 47-80

−21.5

SYR

L 62-76

+10.5

BING

W 82-61

+13.5

FDU

L 67-74

−12.5

LEM

W 74-60

+11.5

LIU

L 58-60

+6.5

WAG

W 70-69

+2.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+16.5

NHVN

W 61-57

+2.5

CHST

W 61-59

−7.5

NHVN

W 70-51

+13.5

CHST

L 74-78

−6.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+2.5

FDU

L 52-55

−0.5

LEM

L 57-58

+1.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+12.5

WAG

L 80-83

−6.5

LIU

W 91-83

+11.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+1.5

STO

W 75-72

+1.5

FDU

W 70-61

+5.5

STO

W 56-51

+0.5

LIU

L 70-79

−4.5

covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-70

−23.5

LUC

W 73-65

−6.5

CAN

L 55-58

−22.5

MORG

W 86-72

+11.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+7.5

MRSH

L 60-69

−18.5

WVU

L 38-70

−19.5

DAV

L 47-80

−5.5

SYR

L 62-76

+6.5

BING

W 82-61

+10.5

FDU

L 67-74

+7.5

LEM

W 74-60

−7.5

LIU

L 58-60

−21.5

WAG

W 70-69

+6.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+7.5

NHVN

W 61-57

−4.5

CHST

W 61-59

−11.5

NHVN

W 70-51

−1.5

CHST

L 74-78

+22.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+49.5

FDU

L 52-55

−24.5

LEM

L 57-58

−23.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+34.5

WAG

L 80-83

+29.5

LIU

W 91-83

+33.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+16.5

STO

W 75-72

+9.5

FDU

W 70-61

−0.5

STO

W 56-51

−27.5

LIU

L 70-79

+14.5

over 15under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Morgan St

27 games played

Straight up

11-16

41% wins

Against the spread

15-12

56% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-11

59% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1641%

L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1256%

W W L L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W W W W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1159%

O U O U U U O U O U O U U U O O O O O O O O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GTWN	L 70-87	+27.5	W +10.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 11	vsUMBC	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 15	@MERC	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsNCAT	L 73-79	+2.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 152
Nov 21	@ODU	L 56-88	+11.5	L −20.5	156.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsDREX	L 66-71	+5.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLONG	L 80-84	+5.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 9	@DEP	L 49-92	+21.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 141
Dec 13	vsNIA	W 81-73	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 19	@CAL	L 50-97	+26.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 21	@SF	L 64-94	+25.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 23	@LMU	L 56-83	+23.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 139
Jan 3	@UMES	L 49-66	+6.5	L −10.5	138.5	U 115
Jan 10	vsSCST	W 72-67	-4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsNCCU	L 78-89	+3.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 167
Jan 17	@DSU	W 80-79	+3.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 24	@HOW	W 78-77	+14.5	W +15.5	148.5	O 155
Jan 26	@NORF	W 79-78	+7.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@COPP	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 7	vsUMES	W 79-71	+1.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 16	@NCCU	L 76-80	+5.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 21	vsDSU	W 82-68	-5.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 25	@SCST	W 90-83	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	vsHOW	L 59-84	+8.5	L −16.5	158.5	U 143
Mar 2	vsNORF	W 90-84	+3.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsCOPP	W 70-66	-5.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 11	vsDSU	L 70-75	-3.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+10.5

UMBC

L 79-81

+2.5

MERC

L 72-86

−7.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−3.5

ODU

L 56-88

−20.5

DREX

L 66-71

+0.5

LONG

L 80-84

+1.5

DEP

L 49-92

−21.5

NIA

W 81-73

+6.5

CAL

L 50-97

−20.5

L 64-94

−4.5

LMU

L 56-83

−3.5

UMES

L 49-66

−10.5

SCST

W 72-67

+0.5

NCCU

L 78-89

−7.5

DSU

W 80-79

+4.5

HOW

W 78-77

+15.5

NORF

W 79-78

+8.5

COPP

W 89-80

+5.5

UMES

W 79-71

+9.5

NCCU

L 76-80

+1.5

DSU

W 82-68

+8.5

SCST

W 90-83

+5.5

HOW

L 59-84

−16.5

NORF

W 90-84

+9.5

COPP

W 70-66

−1.5

DSU

L 70-75

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 12avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+2.5

UMBC

L 79-81

−2.5

MERC

L 72-86

+11.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−9.5

ODU

L 56-88

−12.5

DREX

L 66-71

−6.5

LONG

L 80-84

+9.5

DEP

L 49-92

−9.5

NIA

W 81-73

+13.5

CAL

L 50-97

−4.5

L 64-94

+12.5

LMU

L 56-83

−5.5

UMES

L 49-66

−23.5

SCST

W 72-67

−8.5

NCCU

L 78-89

+25.5

DSU

W 80-79

+22.5

HOW

W 78-77

+6.5

NORF

W 79-78

+4.5

COPP

W 89-80

+13.5

UMES

W 79-71

+9.5

NCCU

L 76-80

+9.5

DSU

W 82-68

+6.5

SCST

W 90-83

+19.5

HOW

L 59-84

−15.5

NORF

W 90-84

+17.5

COPP

W 70-66

−13.5

DSU

L 70-75

+2.5

over 16under 11avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mercyhurst has the better starters

Position by position: Mercyhurst 1, Morgan St 0, even 4

MercyhurstBetterMorgan St

G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61

Even

G A. Worrell16.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 70

G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6

Even

G J. Awoke TR6.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 12

G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Bumpass2.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48

MERCSmall

F K. Horton TR7.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2

No call

F T. Edwards3.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

MercyhurstBetterMorgan St

MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9

Even

MORG defense360th of 366 · -11.0

MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9

Even

MORG offense293rd of 366 · -9.1

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.7 · 2 players

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

MERCSmall

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestMERC betterMORG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mercyhurst

Guards

J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew

Forwards

T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew

Morgan St

Guards

A. Worrell30 minJ. Awoke25 min · TRD. Bumpass9 minB. Barnett2 minJ. KwartengNewK. RichardNew

Forwards

K. Horton20 min · TRT. Edwards17 minM. Wade8 minM. Lual7 minI. Traore6 min · TRT. PettigrewNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MERC68.3 #310

MORG71.7 #252

Points per possession

MERC1.04 #260

MORG1.01 #316

Pace (possessions)

MERC65.6 #327

MORG71.1 #73

Shooting

Effective FG%

MERC49.5 #269

MORG45.8 #351

3-point %

MERC32.1 #276

MORG31.7 #295

3-point attempt rate

MERC31.1 #338

MORG35.2 #274

Free throw rate

MERC25.6 #361

MORG42.7 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

MERC14.3 #35

MORG17.8 #262

Offensive rebound rate

MERC26.4 #312

MORG30.7 #172

Assists per game

MERC14.0 #148

MORG12.2 #269

Defense

Points allowed

MERC68.7 #43

MORG80.1 #321

Points allowed per possession

MERC1.04 #76

MORG1.13 #288

Opponent effective FG%

MERC50.1 #107

MORG51.7 #194

Opponent 3-point %

MERC32.3 #80

MORG31.5 #43

Turnovers forced

MERC18.6 #68

MORG16.5 #186

Defensive rebound rate

MERC70.1 #153

MORG64.8 #341

Steals per game

MERC7.0 #130

MORG4.3 #359

Blocks per game

MERC3.8 #94

MORG3.3 #172

MERC		MORG
Scoring
68.3 #310	Points per game	71.7 #252
1.04 #260	Points per possession	1.01 #316
65.6 #327	Pace (possessions)	71.1 #73
Shooting
49.5 #269	Effective FG%	45.8 #351
32.1 #276	3-point %	31.7 #295
31.1 #338	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #274
25.6 #361	Free throw rate	42.7 #22
Possessions
14.3 #35	Turnover rate	17.8 #262
26.4 #312	Offensive rebound rate	30.7 #172
14.0 #148	Assists per game	12.2 #269
Defense
68.7 #43	Points allowed	80.1 #321
1.04 #76	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #288
50.1 #107	Opponent effective FG%	51.7 #194
32.3 #80	Opponent 3-point %	31.5 #43
18.6 #68	Turnovers forced	16.5 #186
70.1 #153	Defensive rebound rate	64.8 #341
7.0 #130	Steals per game	4.3 #359
3.8 #94	Blocks per game	3.3 #172

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Long Island70–79
Wvs Stonehill56–51
Wvs FDU70–61
W@ Stonehill75–72
L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.

Morgan St

11-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Delaware St70–75
Wvs Coppin St70–66
Wvs Norfolk St90–84
Lvs Howard59–84
W@ SC State90–83

A week or more of rest.

Mercyhurst Lakers at Morgan State Bears

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercyhurst

Morgan St

Mercyhurst has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mercyhurst

Morgan St