Incarnate Word Cardinals at SE Louisiana Lions: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETUniversity Center · at SE Louisiana · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Incarnate Word and SE Louisiana
UIW	This season	SELA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SELA 73–68 · win probability SELA 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SELA has more of the edges

UIW 2, SELA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UIWBig

Three-pointers

UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%; SELA hits 28.4% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 39.1% and 39.5% of their shots

SELABig

UIW offense vs SELA defense

Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 177th, on the model’s ratings

SELASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UIW 34.0, SELA 40.3. Allowed: UIW 41.6, SELA 41.2

SELASmall

Home court

SELA at home. This season: SELA 0-0 at home, UIW 0-0 away

SELASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UIW 17.1%, SELA 18.4%. Forced: UIW 15.8%, SELA 19.1%

UIWSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UIW 32.1%, SELA 28.6%. Defensive: UIW 68.0%, SELA 68.6%

Even

SELA offense vs UIW defense

Offense 315th of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UIW 17%, SELA 4%. Transfers in: UIW 5, SELA 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5; SELA 46.7 and allows 52.4

Context

Schedule so far

UIW has played the 285th-hardest schedule, SELA the 276th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: UIW plays 65.4 a game (335th fastest), SELA 65.9 (318th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SELA -4.8	—
Total	—	140.9	—
Projected score	—	UIW 68.1 · SELA 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SELA -2.7	—
1H total	66.0	—
1H projected score	UIW 31.6 · SELA 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UIW LWLWL	10-18	36%	4-10	—
SELA LLLLW	14-16	47%	5-6	—

Venue/role: UIW away; SELA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UIW UOUUO	14-14	50%	9-19
SELA UOOUO	13-17	43%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UIW	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
SELA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Incarnate Word

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	@ MCN	L64–81LU
Dec 9	@ GONZ	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ TTU	L62–84WO

SE Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs HCU	W55–47WU
Dec 10	@ CAL	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ HAW	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

UIW 3–8 SELASELA leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · UIW 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	UIW 62 @ SELA 74	SELA -1.5	SELA W
Dec 30, 2025-26	SELA 70 @ UIW 79	UIW -6.5	UIW W
Mar 9, 2024-25	UIW 71 vs SELA 67	SELA -3.5	UIW W
Feb 8, 2024-25	SELA 71 @ UIW 66	UIW -2.5	SELA W
Jan 25, 2024-25	UIW 63 @ SELA 86	SELA -3.5	SELA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Incarnate Word

28 games played

Straight up

9-19

32% wins

Against the spread

10-18

36% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-1932%

L L W L W L L L W W W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

10-1836%

L W L W W L L W W W W L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1450%

O U O O U U O U O O U O U U O U O O O U U U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CSU	L 64-98	+10.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 16	@IU	L 61-69	+28.5	W +20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsUSI	W 87-81	-9.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsHPU	L 80-91	+12.5	W +1.5	160.5	O 171
Dec 1	vsMCN	W 71-67	+10.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 138
Dec 6	@NICH	L 67-74	-1.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 8	@NOLA	L 83-84	-1.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 167
Dec 15	@TCU	L 65-69	+19.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 134
Dec 21	vsNAU	W 90-66	-6.5	W +17.5	140.5	O 156
Dec 30	vsSELA	W 79-70	-6.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsHCU	W 73-56	-6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 5	@RGV	L 67-80	+1.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 147
Jan 10	@LAM	L 51-63	+1.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 114
Jan 12	@SFA	L 46-56	+7.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 17	vsNWST	W 76-74	-8.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 19	vsETAM	L 58-80	-6.5	L −28.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 24	vsAMCC	L 71-79	-1.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 150
Jan 27	@HCU	L 75-81	-1.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsRGV	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 199
Feb 2	@AMCC	W 71-69	+4.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 140
Feb 7	@MCN	L 64-81	+16.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 9	@SELA	L 62-74	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 14	vsNICH	L 83-91	-2.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 174
Feb 16	vsNOLA	L 64-78	-2.5	L −16.5	154.5	U 142
Feb 21	@ETAM	W 82-73	+3.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 23	@NWST	L 49-54	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 103
Feb 28	vsLAM	W 72-60	-1.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 132
Mar 2	vsSFA	L 68-76	+7.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSU

L 64-98

−23.5

L 61-69

+20.5

USI

W 87-81

−3.5

HPU

L 80-91

+1.5

MCN

W 71-67

+14.5

NICH

L 67-74

−8.5

NOLA

L 83-84

−2.5

TCU

L 65-69

+15.5

NAU

W 90-66

+17.5

SELA

W 79-70

+2.5

HCU

W 73-56

+10.5

RGV

L 67-80

−11.5

LAM

L 51-63

−10.5

SFA

L 46-56

−2.5

NWST

W 76-74

−6.5

ETAM

L 58-80

−28.5

AMCC

L 71-79

−9.5

HCU

L 75-81

−7.5

RGV

L 93-106

−11.5

AMCC

W 71-69

+6.5

MCN

L 64-81

−0.5

SELA

L 62-74

−10.5

NICH

L 83-91

−10.5

NOLA

L 64-78

−16.5

ETAM

W 82-73

+12.5

NWST

L 49-54

−3.5

LAM

W 72-60

+10.5

SFA

L 68-76

−0.5

covered 10didn’t cover 18avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSU

L 64-98

+14.5

L 61-69

−27.5

USI

W 87-81

+22.5

HPU

L 80-91

+10.5

MCN

W 71-67

−7.5

NICH

L 67-74

−4.5

NOLA

L 83-84

+18.5

TCU

L 65-69

−9.5

NAU

W 90-66

+15.5

SELA

W 79-70

+13.5

HCU

W 73-56

−12.5

RGV

L 67-80

+0.5

LAM

L 51-63

−26.5

SFA

L 46-56

−38.5

NWST

W 76-74

+8.5

ETAM

L 58-80

−4.5

AMCC

L 71-79

+13.5

HCU

L 75-81

+15.5

RGV

L 93-106

+58.5

AMCC

W 71-69

−0.5

MCN

L 64-81

−0.5

SELA

L 62-74

−1.5

NICH

L 83-91

+25.5

NOLA

L 64-78

−12.5

ETAM

W 82-73

+9.5

NWST

L 49-54

−35.5

LAM

W 72-60

−6.5

SFA

L 68-76

+1.5

over 14under 14avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

SE Louisiana

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L W W L W L L L L W L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L W W L W W L W L W L L W W L L W W W L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O U O O O U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 26	@UNCW	L 57-70	+11.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsGWEB	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsNAVY	W 69-65	+3.5	W +7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsNWST	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@HCU	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsETAM	L 69-70	-4.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 139
Dec 19	@LSU	L 65-78	+24.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 30	@UIW	L 70-79	+6.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSFA	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 136
Jan 5	vsLAM	W 60-52	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 112
Jan 10	@MCN	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNOLA	L 76-79	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	@AMCC	L 56-68	+5.5	L −6.5	130.5	U 124
Jan 19	@RGV	L 65-68	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsNICH	W 67-61	-2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsMCN	L 66-76	+12.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@SFA	L 58-85	+9.5	L −17.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 2	@LAM	L 54-73	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsHCU	W 55-47	-4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	vsUIW	W 74-62	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 14	@NWST	L 66-69	+1.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	@ETAM	L 53-70	+2.5	L −14.5	136.5	U 123
Feb 21	vsRGV	L 75-96	+4.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	vsAMCC	L 68-73	+1.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 141
Feb 28	@NICH	L 60-68	+4.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	@NOLA	W 82-78	+6.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+1.5

NAVY

W 69-65

+7.5

NWST

L 68-76

−15.5

HCU

W 74-71

+5.5

ETAM

L 69-70

−5.5

LSU

L 65-78

+11.5

UIW

L 70-79

−2.5

SFA

L 63-73

−6.5

LAM

W 60-52

+9.5

MCN

L 61-73

+4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

−5.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

+2.5

NICH

W 67-61

+3.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

−17.5

LAM

L 54-73

−13.5

HCU

W 55-47

+3.5

UIW

W 74-62

+10.5

NWST

L 66-69

−1.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−14.5

RGV

L 75-96

−16.5

AMCC

L 68-73

−3.5

NICH

L 60-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−10.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+2.5

NAVY

W 69-65

−2.5

NWST

L 68-76

+10.5

HCU

W 74-71

+12.5

ETAM

L 69-70

+1.5

LSU

L 65-78

−1.5

UIW

L 70-79

+13.5

SFA

L 63-73

−1.5

LAM

W 60-52

−23.5

MCN

L 61-73

−4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

+12.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

−2.5

NICH

W 67-61

−13.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

+7.5

LAM

L 54-73

−5.5

HCU

W 55-47

−31.5

UIW

W 74-62

−1.5

NWST

L 66-69

+3.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−13.5

RGV

L 75-96

+32.5

AMCC

L 68-73

+10.5

NICH

L 60-68

−11.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+16.5

over 13under 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Incarnate Word 1, SE Louisiana 1, even 3

Incarnate WordBetterSE Louisiana

G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36

SELASmall

G Q. Allen TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 62

G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19

Even

G J. Furman TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40

UIWSmall

G T. Bailey TR6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 12

F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Rolison TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 58

F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Sims TR7.2 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 28

Incarnate WordBetterSE Louisiana

UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0

SELASmall

SELA defense177th of 366 · -4.0

UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0

Even

SELA offense315th of 366 · -10.2

Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.9 · 1 player

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

UIWBig

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUIW betterSELA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Incarnate Word

Guards

I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew

Forwards

D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew

Centers

C. PareNew

SE Louisiana

Guards

Q. Allen25 min · TRJ. Furman24 min · TRT. Bailey23 min · TRT. Rolison17 min · TRG. Sanford12 min · TRJ. Nyam1 min · TR

Forwards

A. Sims32 min · TRJ. Massaquoi17 min · TRY. Ndjonga10 min · TRG. Shoemaker7 min

Centers

D. Akoue12 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UIW70.4 #275

SELA64.8 #350

Points per possession

UIW1.07 #206

SELA0.98 #339

Pace (possessions)

UIW65.4 #335

SELA65.9 #318

Shooting

Effective FG%

UIW50.2 #228

SELA46.7 #343

3-point %

UIW36.1 #54

SELA28.4 #362

3-point attempt rate

UIW39.1 #190

SELA39.5 #183

Free throw rate

UIW34.0 #210

SELA40.3 #56

Possessions

Turnover rate

UIW17.1 #206

SELA18.4 #291

Offensive rebound rate

UIW32.1 #120

SELA28.6 #245

Assists per game

UIW10.8 #342

SELA11.4 #319

Defense

Points allowed

UIW75.0 #189

SELA71.3 #86

Points allowed per possession

UIW1.15 #331

SELA1.08 #172

Opponent effective FG%

UIW54.5 #314

SELA52.4 #233

Opponent 3-point %

UIW34.4 #214

SELA36.0 #301

Turnovers forced

UIW15.8 #233

SELA19.1 #47

Defensive rebound rate

UIW68.0 #260

SELA68.6 #225

Steals per game

UIW5.1 #329

SELA6.8 #145

Blocks per game

UIW2.4 #310

SELA2.7 #272

UIW		SELA
Scoring
70.4 #275	Points per game	64.8 #350
1.07 #206	Points per possession	0.98 #339
65.4 #335	Pace (possessions)	65.9 #318
Shooting
50.2 #228	Effective FG%	46.7 #343
36.1 #54	3-point %	28.4 #362
39.1 #190	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #183
34.0 #210	Free throw rate	40.3 #56
Possessions
17.1 #206	Turnover rate	18.4 #291
32.1 #120	Offensive rebound rate	28.6 #245
10.8 #342	Assists per game	11.4 #319
Defense
75.0 #189	Points allowed	71.3 #86
1.15 #331	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #172
54.5 #314	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #233
34.4 #214	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #301
15.8 #233	Turnovers forced	19.1 #47
68.0 #260	Defensive rebound rate	68.6 #225
5.1 #329	Steals per game	6.8 #145
2.4 #310	Blocks per game	2.7 #272

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SF Austin68–76
Wvs Lamar72–60
L@ N'Western St49–54
W@ East Texas A&M82–73
Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.

SE Louisiana

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ LSU N Orleans82–78
L@ Nicholls60–68
Lvs Texas A&M-CC68–73
Lvs UT Rio Grande75–96
L@ East Texas A&M53–70

A week or more of rest.

Incarnate Word Cardinals at SE Louisiana Lions

What could decide it: SELA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Incarnate Word

SE Louisiana

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Incarnate Word

SE Louisiana