1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. UIW @ GONZ
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Gonzaga Bulldogs

McCarthey Athletic Center · at Gonzaga
#289UIWIncarnate Word
@
#17GONZGonzaga AP #15
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UIWThis seasonGONZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GONZ 93–58 · win probability GONZ 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 151.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

UIW 0, GONZ 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
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UIW offense vs GONZ defense
Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings
GONZBig
GONZ offense vs UIW defense
Offense 14th of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings
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Shooting
Effective FG%: UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5; GONZ 55.6 and allows 46.3
Context
Schedule so far
UIW has played the 285th-hardest schedule, GONZ the 84th. A record against a soft schedule means less
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Turnovers
Turnover rate: UIW 17.1%, GONZ 13.7%. Forced: UIW 15.8%, GONZ 19.9%
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Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UIW 32.1%, GONZ 34.8%. Defensive: UIW 68.0%, GONZ 74.3%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UIW plays 65.4 a game (335th fastest), GONZ 70.4 (98th). Faster games mean more points
GONZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UIW 34.0, GONZ 31.0. Allowed: UIW 41.6, GONZ 30.9
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Home court
GONZ at home. This season: GONZ 0-0 at home, UIW 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%; GONZ hits 33.3% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 39.1% and 30.8% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UIW 17%, GONZ 21%. Transfers in: UIW 5, GONZ 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GONZ -34.5—
Total—151.3—
Projected score—UIW 58.4 · GONZ 92.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGONZ -20.4—
1H total70.8—
1H projected scoreUIW 25.2 · GONZ 45.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Gonzaga has the better starters

Position by position: Incarnate Word 0, Gonzaga 3, even 2
Incarnate WordBetterGonzaga
G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36
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G J. Bennett TR15.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 85
G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19
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G X. Lee TR11.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.2 ast Score 94
G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40
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F C. Wiggins TR13.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 81
F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F B. Huff17.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
C M. Diop TR13.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 86
Incarnate WordBetterGonzaga
UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0
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GONZ defense21st of 366 · +5.3
UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0
GONZBig
GONZ offense14th of 366 · +9.4
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
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Backcourt+5.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
GONZBig
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
GONZSmall
Bench+2.8 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUIW betterGONZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Incarnate Word
Guards
I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew
Forwards
D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew
Centers
C. PareNew
Gonzaga
Guards
J. Bennett35 min · TRX. Lee27 min · TRD. Fogle17 minI. Harwell14 min · TRN. De SousaNewA. MetzNew
Forwards
C. Wiggins28 min · TRB. Huff26 minI. AlmansaNewP. JeffersonNewS. FunchesNewL. FosterNew
Centers
M. Diop30 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UIWGONZ
Scoring
70.4 #275Points per game84.3 #17
1.07 #206Points per possession1.20 #13
65.4 #335Pace (possessions)70.4 #98
Shooting
50.2 #228Effective FG%55.6 #25
36.1 #543-point %33.3 #212
39.1 #1903-point attempt rate30.8 #342
34.0 #210Free throw rate31.0 #282
Possessions
17.1 #206Turnover rate13.7 #17
32.1 #120Offensive rebound rate34.8 #52
10.8 #342Assists per game18.4 #7
Defense
75.0 #189Points allowed66.2 #15
1.15 #331Points allowed per possession0.94 #1
54.5 #314Opponent effective FG%46.3 #15
34.4 #214Opponent 3-point %30.6 #23
15.8 #233Turnovers forced19.9 #25
68.0 #260Defensive rebound rate74.3 #16
5.1 #329Steals per game8.4 #23
2.4 #310Blocks per game3.7 #116
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin68–76
  • Wvs Lamar72–60
  • L@ N'Western St49–54
  • W@ East Texas A&M82–73
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.

Gonzaga

31-4 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas68–74
  • Wvs Kennesaw St73–64
  • Wvs Santa Clara79–68
  • Wvs Oregon St65–56
  • L@ Saint Mary's59–70

A week or more of rest.