1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. UAPB @ MUR
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Murray State Racers

CFSB Center · at Murray St
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#132MURMurray St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonMUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MUR 90–68 · win probability MUR 97%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MUR has more of the edges

UAPB 1, MUR 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MURBig
MUR offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 110th of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
MURBig
UAPB offense vs MUR defense
Offense 337th of 366 against a defense 197th, on the model’s ratings
MURBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, MUR 32.6%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, MUR 68.7%
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, MUR the 165th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MURBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, MUR 38.6. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, MUR 32.2
MURSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; MUR 53.8 and allows 52.4
MURSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, MUR 16.4%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, MUR 15.7%
UAPBSmall
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; MUR hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 37.1% and 44.8% of their shots
MURSmall
Home court
MUR at home. This season: MUR 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, MUR 28%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, MUR 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), MUR 72.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MUR -21.6—
Total—157.7—
Projected score—UAPB 68 · MUR 89.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMUR -12.7—
1H total73.7—
1H projected scoreUAPB 30.5 · MUR 43.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Murray St has the better starters

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, Murray St 1, even 4
AR-Pine BluffBetterMurray St
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
MURBig
G C. Jones TR10 pts · 3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Domon14.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Courbon4.6 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 31
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F S. Tupuola TR6.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 55
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F B. Rogers TR6.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 67
AR-Pine BluffBetterMurray St
UAPB offense337th of 366 · -11.1
MURBig
MUR defense197th of 366 · -4.8
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
MURBig
MUR offense110th of 366 · -1.8
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
MURBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
MURSmall
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterMUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
Murray St
Guards
C. Jones26 min · TRR. Domon25 minM. Courbon16 minB. Shorter15 minK. Magwood11 min · TRB. ShtolzbergNew
Forwards
S. Tupuola25 min · TRB. Rogers18 min · TRP. NikolicNewJ. BoulefaaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBMUR
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game83.1 #26
1.04 #277Points per possession1.15 #56
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)72.3 #30
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%53.8 #70
33.6 #1903-point %35.0 #120
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate44.8 #72
38.4 #91Free throw rate38.6 #86
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate16.4 #160
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate32.6 #100
14.1 #136Assists per game13.7 #165
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed80.2 #323
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession1.11 #233
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%52.4 #236
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %36.2 #310
16.4 #192Turnovers forced15.7 #234
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate68.7 #214
6.8 #142Steals per game5.9 #248
2.9 #244Blocks per game4.1 #69
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

Murray St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Nevada75–89
  • Lvs UIC79–92
  • L@ Bradley78–87
  • Wvs Evansville88–75
  • L@ Illinois St61–78

A week or more of rest.