1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 7
  3. UIW @ MCN
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 7

Incarnate Word Cardinals at McNeese Cowboys

Townsley Law Arena · at McNeese · Conference game
#289UIWIncarnate Word
@
#127MCNMcNeese
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UIWThis seasonMCN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MCN 80–65 · win probability MCN 90%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 144.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MCN has more of the edges

UIW 1, MCN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MCNBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UIW 17.1%, MCN 14.2%. Forced: UIW 15.8%, MCN 24.4%
MCNBig
UIW offense vs MCN defense
Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 117th, on the model’s ratings
MCNBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5; MCN 50.7 and allows 49.3
MCNBig
MCN offense vs UIW defense
Offense 153rd of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings
UIWSmall
Three-pointers
UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%; MCN hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 39.1% and 35.2% of their shots
MCNSmall
Home court
MCN at home. This season: MCN 0-0 at home, UIW 0-0 away
MCNSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UIW 34.0, MCN 37.4. Allowed: UIW 41.6, MCN 42.0
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: UIW plays 65.4 a game (335th fastest), MCN 67.1 (276th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UIW 17%, MCN 33%. Transfers in: UIW 5, MCN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
UIW has played the 285th-hardest schedule, MCN the 258th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UIW 32.1%, MCN 35.1%. Defensive: UIW 68.0%, MCN 65.1%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MCN -14.8—
Total—144.9—
Projected score—UIW 65.1 · MCN 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMCN -8.7—
1H total67.8—
1H projected scoreUIW 29.6 · MCN 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

McNeese has the better starters

Position by position: Incarnate Word 0, McNeese 2, even 3
Incarnate WordBetterMcNeese
G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36
MCNBig
G L. Johnson16.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98
G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19
MCNSmall
G C. Cherenfant3.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38
G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40
No call
G D. Warren TR1.2 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Colbert5.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 29
F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Chest TR2.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 71
Incarnate WordBetterMcNeese
UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0
MCNBig
MCN defense117th of 366 · -1.6
UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0
MCNBig
MCN offense153rd of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
MCNBig
Backcourt+3.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUIW betterMCN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Incarnate Word
Guards
I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew
Forwards
D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew
Centers
C. PareNew
McNeese
Guards
L. Johnson26 minC. Cherenfant16 minD. Warren8 min · TRE. Moore5 min · TRJ. Rembert4 minJ. Dean-Vines3 min · TR
Forwards
J. Colbert20 minC. Chest13 min · TRA. Maluk7 min · TRC. NituNewM. MadisonNewA. MazouNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UIWMCN
Scoring
70.4 #275Points per game76.6 #131
1.07 #206Points per possession1.14 #69
65.4 #335Pace (possessions)67.1 #276
Shooting
50.2 #228Effective FG%50.7 #202
36.1 #543-point %31.7 #290
39.1 #1903-point attempt rate35.2 #269
34.0 #210Free throw rate37.4 #114
Possessions
17.1 #206Turnover rate14.2 #28
32.1 #120Offensive rebound rate35.1 #46
10.8 #342Assists per game13.1 #205
Defense
75.0 #189Points allowed67.4 #23
1.15 #331Points allowed per possession1.00 #27
54.5 #314Opponent effective FG%49.3 #76
34.4 #214Opponent 3-point %32.7 #102
15.8 #233Turnovers forced24.4 #1
68.0 #260Defensive rebound rate65.1 #338
5.1 #329Steals per game10.3 #1
2.4 #310Blocks per game4.4 #42
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin68–76
  • Wvs Lamar72–60
  • L@ N'Western St49–54
  • W@ East Texas A&M82–73
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.

McNeese

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Vanderbilt68–78
  • Wvs SF Austin76–59
  • Wvs UT Rio Grande84–80
  • W@ Nicholls75–65
  • W@ LSU N Orleans66–63

A week or more of rest.