1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 10
  3. USM @ MCN
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 10

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at McNeese Cowboys

Townsley Law Arena · at McNeese
#224USMSouthern Miss
@
#127MCNMcNeese
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USMThis seasonMCN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MCN 79–68 · win probability MCN 83%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MCN has more of the edges

USM 1, MCN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MCNBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USM 18.4%, MCN 14.2%. Forced: USM 17.8%, MCN 24.4%
MCNSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: USM 49.0 and allows 51.4; MCN 50.7 and allows 49.3
USMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USM 32.5%, MCN 35.1%. Defensive: USM 71.2%, MCN 65.1%
MCNSmall
Three-pointers
USM hits 28.9% and allows 34.5%; MCN hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 28.7% and 35.2% of their shots
MCNSmall
USM offense vs MCN defense
Offense 203rd of 366 against a defense 117th, on the model’s ratings
MCNSmall
MCN offense vs USM defense
Offense 153rd of 366 against a defense 239th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: USM plays 70.1 a game (113th fastest), MCN 67.1 (276th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
USM has played the 184th-hardest schedule, MCN the 258th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MCNSmall
Home court
MCN at home. This season: MCN 0-0 at home, USM 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: USM 43.2, MCN 37.4. Allowed: USM 43.6, MCN 42.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USM 23%, MCN 33%. Transfers in: USM 3, MCN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MCN -10.9—
Total—147.1—
Projected score—USM 68.1 · MCN 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMCN -6.4—
1H total68.8—
1H projected scoreUSM 31.2 · MCN 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Southern Miss 2, McNeese 2, even 1
Southern MissBetterMcNeese
G J. Gaines-Wyatt TR11.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
MCNBig
G L. Johnson16.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98
G I. Taveras15.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 90
USMBig
G C. Cherenfant3.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38
G B. Carruth2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 6
No call
G D. Warren TR1.2 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
F C. Wallace TR12.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 53
USMSmall
F J. Colbert5.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 29
F M. Overstreet TR2.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 39
MCNSmall
F C. Chest TR2.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 71
Southern MissBetterMcNeese
USM offense203rd of 366 · -6.3
MCNSmall
MCN defense117th of 366 · -1.6
USM defense239th of 366 · -6.3
MCNSmall
MCN offense153rd of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players
MCNSmall
Backcourt+3.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUSM betterMCN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern Miss
Guards
J. Gaines-Wyatt27 min · TRI. Taveras27 minB. Carruth12 minB. WestonNewA. IgiedeNewC. CereseNew
Forwards
C. Wallace29 min · TRM. Overstreet10 min · TRM. MontanoNew
Centers
F. Diagne6 minM. BlankNew
McNeese
Guards
L. Johnson26 minC. Cherenfant16 minD. Warren8 min · TRE. Moore5 min · TRJ. Rembert4 minJ. Dean-Vines3 min · TR
Forwards
J. Colbert20 minC. Chest13 min · TRA. Maluk7 min · TRC. NituNewM. MadisonNewA. MazouNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USMMCN
Scoring
73.9 #197Points per game76.6 #131
1.05 #242Points per possession1.14 #69
70.1 #113Pace (possessions)67.1 #276
Shooting
49.0 #289Effective FG%50.7 #202
28.9 #3553-point %31.7 #290
28.7 #3583-point attempt rate35.2 #269
43.2 #18Free throw rate37.4 #114
Possessions
18.4 #290Turnover rate14.2 #28
32.5 #103Offensive rebound rate35.1 #46
11.2 #330Assists per game13.1 #205
Defense
74.8 #183Points allowed67.4 #23
1.07 #127Points allowed per possession1.00 #27
51.4 #177Opponent effective FG%49.3 #76
34.5 #217Opponent 3-point %32.7 #102
17.8 #109Turnovers forced24.4 #1
71.2 #97Defensive rebound rate65.1 #338
7.3 #98Steals per game10.3 #1
3.6 #127Blocks per game4.4 #42
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Miss

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Troy70–78
  • Wvs App State86–73
  • Wvs Texas St81–77
  • Wvs James Madison86–80
  • W@ South Alabama68–55

A week or more of rest.

McNeese

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Vanderbilt68–78
  • Wvs SF Austin76–59
  • Wvs UT Rio Grande84–80
  • W@ Nicholls75–65
  • W@ LSU N Orleans66–63

A week or more of rest.