Pennsylvania Quakers at Lafayette Leopards: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 7, 12:00 AM ETKirby Sports Center · at Lafayette

#137PENNPenn

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Penn and Lafayette
PENN	This season	LAF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PENN 77–68 · win probability PENN 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PENN has more of the edges

PENN 6, LAF 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PENNBig

Three-pointers

PENN hits 38.3% and allows 32.2%; LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 35.4% and 39.8% of their shots

PENNBig

LAF offense vs PENN defense

Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 142nd, on the model’s ratings

PENNSmall

PENN offense vs LAF defense

Offense 138th of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PENN has played the 126th-hardest schedule, LAF the 230th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PENNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PENN 83%, LAF 34%. Transfers in: PENN 1, LAF 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

PENNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PENN 15.4%, LAF 15.3%. Forced: PENN 17.3%, LAF 15.1%

PENNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PENN 50.4 and allows 52.1; LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: PENN plays 69.3 a game (158th fastest), LAF 67.2 (274th). Faster games mean more points

LAFSmall

Home court

LAF at home. This season: LAF 0-0 at home, PENN 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PENN 33.9, LAF 32.5. Allowed: PENN 27.5, LAF 30.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PENN 30.0%, LAF 25.8%. Defensive: PENN 68.7%, LAF 71.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PENN -9.1	—
Total	—	145.7	—
Projected score	—	PENN 77.4 · LAF 68.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PENN -5.5	—
1H total	68.2	—
1H projected score	PENN 36.9 · LAF 31.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PENN WWWWL	20-9	69%	9-4	—
LAF WLWWL	13-17	43%	3-11	—

Venue/role: PENN away; LAF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PENN UUUOO	8-21	28%	17-12
LAF OUUOO	17-13	57%	10-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PENN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%
LAF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Penn

No more games listed yet.

Lafayette

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PENN 4–1 LAFPENN leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · PENN 1-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 8, 2025-26	LAF 72 @ PENN 74	PENN -7.5	LAF W
Nov 12, 2024-25	PENN 63 @ LAF 65	LAF +2.5	LAF W
Nov 24, 2023-24	LAF 72 @ PENN 74	PENN -10.5	LAF W
Nov 22, 2022-23	PENN 74 @ LAF 68	LAF +6.5	LAF W
Nov 16, 2021-22	LAF 57 @ PENN 85	PENN -10	PENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Penn

29 games played

Straight up

17-12

59% wins

Against the spread

20-9

69% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-21

28% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1259%

L L W W W W L L W L L W L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-969%

L L W W W W L L L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-2128%

O O U U U U U O U U O U O O U U U U U U U U U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 17	vsJOES	W 83-74	+5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 21	@DREX	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 28	vsMRMK	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsLAS	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsHOF	L 60-77	+1.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 6	@VILL	L 63-90	+18.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 8	vsLAF	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 20	@RUTG	L 69-70	+11.5	W +10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 28	@GMU	L 79-83	+16.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsNJIT	W 80-61	-14.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 5	@PRIN	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRWN	W 81-73	-5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	@DART	W 84-74	+2.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 19	@HARV	L 63-64	+5.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsYALE	L 60-77	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 137
Jan 30	@COLU	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	@COR	W 91-81	+7.5	W +17.5	173.5	U 172
Feb 7	vsPRIN	W 61-60	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOLU	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsCOR	W 82-76	+2.5	W +8.5	169.5	U 158
Feb 21	@YALE	L 70-74	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 27	vsDART	W 80-71	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsHARV	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	@BRWN	W 82-61	+1.5	W +22.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsHARV	W 62-60	+3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 122
Mar 15	vsYALE	W 88-84	+9.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsILL	L 70-105	+25.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

JOES

W 83-74

+14.5

DREX

W 84-68

+20.5

MRMK

W 77-65

+9.5

LAS

W 73-71

+0.5

HOF

L 60-77

−15.5

VILL

L 63-90

−8.5

LAF

W 74-72

−5.5

RUTG

L 69-70

+10.5

GMU

L 79-83

+12.5

NJIT

W 80-61

+4.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+1.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+2.5

DART

W 84-74

+12.5

HARV

L 63-64

+4.5

YALE

L 60-77

−10.5

COLU

L 67-72

−0.5

COR

W 91-81

+17.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−2.5

COLU

W 76-67

+7.5

COR

W 82-76

+8.5

YALE

L 70-74

+5.5

DART

W 80-71

+2.5

HARV

W 64-61

+1.5

BRWN

W 82-61

+22.5

HARV

W 62-60

+5.5

YALE

W 88-84

+13.5

ILL

L 70-105

−9.5

covered 20didn’t cover 9avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

JOES

W 83-74

−6.5

DREX

W 84-68

−0.5

MRMK

W 77-65

−10.5

LAS

W 73-71

−5.5

HOF

L 60-77

−12.5

VILL

L 63-90

+2.5

LAF

W 74-72

−4.5

RUTG

L 69-70

−11.5

GMU

L 79-83

+15.5

NJIT

W 80-61

−10.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+8.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+8.5

DART

W 84-74

−5.5

HARV

L 63-64

−23.5

YALE

L 60-77

−20.5

COLU

L 67-72

−14.5

COR

W 91-81

−1.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−23.5

COLU

W 76-67

−5.5

COR

W 82-76

−11.5

YALE

L 70-74

−6.5

DART

W 80-71

−3.5

HARV

W 64-61

−13.5

BRWN

W 82-61

−3.5

HARV

W 62-60

−17.5

YALE

W 88-84

+27.5

ILL

L 70-105

+24.5

over 8under 21avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lafayette

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L L L L W L W L L L L W L L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L L W L L W L–W L W L W L L L W W L L W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O O O U U O–U O O O U O U O U O U O U U U U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsMONM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 5	vsMERC	W 79-71	—	—	—	—
Dec 8	@PENN	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	@CLT	L 67-81	+11.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 20	@GT	L 81-95	+16.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 31	vsCOLG	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@L-MD	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	vsBU	L 67-83	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	@NAVY	L 50-76	+8.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 14	@BUCK	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsHC	W 74-55	-2.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@BU	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@LEH	L 59-64	+2.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 123
Jan 28	vsBUCK	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	@AMER	W 67-65	+5.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsNAVY	L 50-65	+3.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 115
Feb 7	@ARMY	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 11	vsL-MD	L 54-68	-3.5	L −17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 14	vsLEH	L 69-78	-2.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@HC	W 86-83	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	vsAMER	L 61-75	+3.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	@COLG	W 70-69	+8.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	vsARMY	W 83-77	-3.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 160
Mar 3	vsHC	L 77-82	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

MONM

L 74-88

−12.5

PENN

L 72-74

+5.5

CLT

L 67-81

−2.5

L 81-95

+2.5

COLG

L 77-85

−1.5

L-MD

W 79-64

+13.5

L 67-83

−14.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−17.5

BUCK

L 69-76

−4.5

W 74-55

+16.5

L 73-77

+0.5

LEH

L 59-64

−2.5

BUCK

W 81-79

−2.5

AMER

W 67-65

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−11.5

ARMY

W 63-60

+1.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−17.5

LEH

L 69-78

−11.5

W 86-83

+4.5

AMER

L 61-75

−10.5

COLG

W 70-69

+9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+2.5

L 77-82

−9.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

MONM

L 74-88

+20.5

PENN

L 72-74

−4.5

CLT

L 67-81

+10.5

L 81-95

+28.5

COLG

L 77-85

+15.5

L-MD

W 79-64

−9.5

L 67-83

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−15.5

BUCK

L 69-76

+7.5

W 74-55

−9.5

L 73-77

+4.5

LEH

L 59-64

−20.5

BUCK

W 81-79

+21.5

AMER

W 67-65

−10.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−24.5

ARMY

W 63-60

−19.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−25.5

LEH

L 69-78

+6.5

W 86-83

+29.5

AMER

L 61-75

−5.5

COLG

W 70-69

−9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+15.5

L 77-82

+17.5

over 17under 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Penn has the better starters

Position by position: Penn 2, Lafayette 0, even 3

PennBetterLafayette

G M. Zanoni12.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

No call

G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

G A. Levine8.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.9 ast Score 61

Even

F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 67

F T. Power16.8 pts · 7.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 81

PENNBig

F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

F A. Gerhart5.2 pts · 4.6 reb · 1 ast Score 36

PENNSmall

F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

F L. Lueth3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

Even

C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

PennBetterLafayette

PENN offense138th of 366 · -4.1

PENNSmall

LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5

PENN defense142nd of 366 · -3.1

PENNBig

LAF offense331st of 366 · -10.8

Backcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt-0.4 · 3 players

PENNSmall

Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players

Bench-1.5 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestPENN betterLAF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Penn

Guards

M. Zanoni29 minA. Levine25 minS. Mohammed16 min · TRJ. Jones14 minN. Polonowski6 minP. Kamin3 min

Forwards

T. Power36 minA. Gerhart20 minL. Lueth17 minD. Scantlebury15 minW. Kruse3 minF. BillyNew

Centers

M. PereiraNew

Lafayette

Guards

P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew

Forwards

S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew

Centers

M. Bednostin10 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PENN74.4 #181

LAF69.1 #297

Points per possession

PENN1.08 #196

LAF1.03 #289

Pace (possessions)

PENN69.3 #158

LAF67.2 #274

Shooting

Effective FG%

PENN50.4 #223

LAF49.3 #278

3-point %

PENN38.3 #13

LAF32.1 #273

3-point attempt rate

PENN35.4 #264

LAF39.8 #173

Free throw rate

PENN33.9 #212

LAF32.5 #249

Possessions

Turnover rate

PENN15.4 #93

LAF15.3 #89

Offensive rebound rate

PENN30.0 #200

LAF25.8 #326

Assists per game

PENN13.7 #171

LAF13.6 #175

Defense

Points allowed

PENN74.5 #173

LAF75.4 #200

Points allowed per possession

PENN1.07 #137

LAF1.12 #275

Opponent effective FG%

PENN52.1 #218

LAF53.6 #286

Opponent 3-point %

PENN32.2 #73

LAF36.0 #298

Turnovers forced

PENN17.3 #132

LAF15.1 #273

Defensive rebound rate

PENN68.7 #220

LAF71.4 #88

Steals per game

PENN6.5 #184

LAF5.3 #316

Blocks per game

PENN3.1 #199

LAF2.3 #324

PENN		LAF
Scoring
74.4 #181	Points per game	69.1 #297
1.08 #196	Points per possession	1.03 #289
69.3 #158	Pace (possessions)	67.2 #274
Shooting
50.4 #223	Effective FG%	49.3 #278
38.3 #13	3-point %	32.1 #273
35.4 #264	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #173
33.9 #212	Free throw rate	32.5 #249
Possessions
15.4 #93	Turnover rate	15.3 #89
30.0 #200	Offensive rebound rate	25.8 #326
13.7 #171	Assists per game	13.6 #175
Defense
74.5 #173	Points allowed	75.4 #200
1.07 #137	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #275
52.1 #218	Opponent effective FG%	53.6 #286
32.2 #73	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #298
17.3 #132	Turnovers forced	15.1 #273
68.7 #220	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #88
6.5 #184	Steals per game	5.3 #316
3.1 #199	Blocks per game	2.3 #324

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Penn

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois70–105
Wvs Yale88–84
Wvs Harvard62–60
W@ Brown82–61
Wvs Harvard64–61

A week or more of rest.

Lafayette

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Holy Cross77–82
Wvs Army83–77
W@ Colgate70–69
Lvs American61–75
W@ Holy Cross86–83

A week or more of rest.

Pennsylvania Quakers at Lafayette Leopards

What could decide it: PENN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Penn

Lafayette

Penn has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Penn

Lafayette