Virginia Tech Hokies at West Virginia Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 4:30 PM ETHope Coliseum · at West Virginia

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Virginia Tech and West Virginia
VT	This season	WVU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WVU 76–70 · win probability WVU 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

VT 3, WVU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VTBig

Three-pointers

VT hits 35.5% and allows 30.6%; WVU hits 33.0% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 39.7% and 43.0% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: VT plays 69.8 a game (127th fastest), WVU 65.3 (336th). Faster games mean more points

WVUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: VT 31.9%, WVU 30.5%. Defensive: VT 67.4%, WVU 71.4%

VTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: VT 14.9%, WVU 16.8%. Forced: VT 17.3%, WVU 17.8%

WVUSmall

Home court

WVU at home. This season: WVU 0-0 at home, VT 0-0 away

WVUSmall

VT offense vs WVU defense

Offense 68th of 366 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

VTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: VT 47%, WVU 23%. Transfers in: VT 8, WVU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: VT 52.2 and allows 50.9; WVU 51.6 and allows 48.5

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: VT 34.0, WVU 35.1. Allowed: VT 28.8, WVU 29.3

Context

Schedule so far

VT has played the 74th-hardest schedule, WVU the 62nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

WVU offense vs VT defense

Offense 77th of 366 against a defense 72nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WVU -6.0	—
Total	—	145.6	—
Projected score	—	VT 69.8 · WVU 75.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WVU -3.4	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	VT 32.3 · WVU 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WWLWL	19-13	59%	10-0	—
WVU WLWWW	18-17	51%	10-8	—

Venue/role: VT away; WVU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT UOUOO	17-15	53%	19-13
WVU UUOOO	13-22	37%	21-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
WVU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Virginia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	vs UMES	W82–53WU
Dec 13	vs RAD	W65–39WU

West Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs PITT	W71–49WU
Dec 13	vs COPP	W91–49WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Virginia Tech

32 games played

Straight up

19-13

59% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1359%

W W W W W W L L W W W W W W L L W L W W L W L L W L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1359%

W W W L L L L L W W W W L W W L L W W W W L L W W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

O O U O U U U O O U O U O O O U O U O U U U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHSO	W 98-67	-18.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsPROV	W 107-101	+2.5	W +8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 12	vsJOES	W 94-59	-12.5	W +22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 16	vsCLT	W 84-76	-18.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 19	vsBRY	W 78-61	-24.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 26	vsCSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 130
Nov 27	vsSMC	L 66-77	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVCU	L 68-86	+2.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 154
Dec 2	@SC	W 86-83	+2.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsGMU	W 73-62	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 11	vsWCU	W 96-74	-20.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 14	vsUMES	W 82-53	-27.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 20	vsELON	W 82-81	-12.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 31	vsUVA	W 95-85	+5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 180
Jan 3	@WAKE	L 78-81	+5.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 7	vsSTAN	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 10	vsCAL	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 153
Jan 14	@SMU	L 76-77	+8.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 153
Jan 17	vsND	W 89-76	-6.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 21	@SYR	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 24	@LOU	L 71-85	+14.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 156
Jan 27	vsGT	W 71-65	-9.5	L −3.5	155.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsDUKE	L 58-72	+13.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 130
Feb 7	@NCSU	L 73-82	+10.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 155
Feb 11	@CLEM	W 76-66	+8.5	W +18.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsFSU	L 69-92	-4.5	L −27.5	156.5	O 161
Feb 17	@MIA	L 66-67	+8.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 133
Feb 21	vsWAKE	W 82-63	-3.5	W +15.5	150.5	U 145
Feb 28	@UNC	L 82-89	+7.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 171
Mar 3	vsBC	W 72-63	-11.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 7	@UVA	L 72-76	+11.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 148
Mar 10	vsWAKE	L 89-95	+1.5	L −4.5	150.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+12.5

PROV

W 107-101

+8.5

JOES

W 94-59

+22.5

CLT

W 84-76

−10.5

BRY

W 78-61

−7.5

CSU

W 66-64

−2.5

SMC

L 66-77

−5.5

VCU

L 68-86

−15.5

W 86-83

+5.5

GMU

W 73-62

+6.5

WCU

W 96-74

+1.5

UMES

W 82-53

+1.5

ELON

W 82-81

−11.5

UVA

W 95-85

+15.5

WAKE

L 78-81

+2.5

STAN

L 68-69

−4.5

CAL

W 78-75

−2.5

SMU

L 76-77

+7.5

W 89-76

+6.5

SYR

W 76-74

+5.5

LOU

L 71-85

+0.5

W 71-65

−3.5

DUKE

L 58-72

−0.5

NCSU

L 73-82

+1.5

CLEM

W 76-66

+18.5

FSU

L 69-92

−27.5

MIA

L 66-67

+7.5

WAKE

W 82-63

+15.5

UNC

L 82-89

+0.5

W 72-63

−2.5

UVA

L 72-76

+7.5

WAKE

L 89-95

−4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+18.5

PROV

W 107-101

+50.5

JOES

W 94-59

−5.5

CLT

W 84-76

+14.5

BRY

W 78-61

−12.5

CSU

W 66-64

−23.5

SMC

L 66-77

−1.5

VCU

L 68-86

+0.5

W 86-83

+19.5

GMU

W 73-62

−9.5

WCU

W 96-74

+17.5

UMES

W 82-53

−4.5

ELON

W 82-81

+4.5

UVA

W 95-85

+26.5

WAKE

L 78-81

+5.5

STAN

L 68-69

−11.5

CAL

W 78-75

+4.5

SMU

L 76-77

−2.5

W 89-76

+21.5

SYR

W 76-74

−2.5

LOU

L 71-85

−4.5

W 71-65

−19.5

DUKE

L 58-72

−18.5

NCSU

L 73-82

+0.5

CLEM

W 76-66

+3.5

FSU

L 69-92

+4.5

MIA

L 66-67

−15.5

WAKE

W 82-63

−5.5

UNC

L 82-89

+21.5

W 72-63

−7.5

UVA

L 72-76

+2.5

WAKE

L 89-95

+33.5

over 17under 15avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

West Virginia

35 games played

Straight up

21-14

60% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-22

37% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1460%

W W W W W L L W W L W L W L W W L W W L W L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1751%

L L W W L W L W W L W W L L W W L W W L L L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2237%

U U U U O O O U O U O O U U U O U U U U U U U U O U U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsMSM	W 70-54	-19.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 6	vsCAM	W 73-65	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsLEH	W 69-47	-17.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 13	vsPITT	W 71-49	-5.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsLAF	W 81-59	-24.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	vsCLEM	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsXAV	L 68-78	-5.5	L −15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 30	vsMERC	W 70-38	-21.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 3	vsCOPP	W 91-49	-31.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	vsWAKE	L 66-75	-2.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 9	vsLR	W 90-58	-27.5	W +4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsOSU	L 88-89	+3.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 177
Dec 22	vsMVSU	W 86-51	-42.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 2	@ISU	L 59-80	+16.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 139
Jan 6	vsCIN	W 62-60	+1.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsKU	W 86-75	+2.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 13	@HOU	L 48-77	+13.5	L −15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 17	vsCOLO	W 72-61	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 133
Jan 21	@ASU	W 75-63	+1.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 138
Jan 24	@ARIZ	L 53-88	+17.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsKSU	W 59-54	-7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 113
Jan 31	vsBAY	L 53-63	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 116
Feb 5	@CIN	W 59-54	+5.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 113
Feb 8	vsTTU	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 133
Feb 14	@UCF	W 74-67	+3.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 18	vsUTAH	L 56-61	-10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 21	@TCU	L 54-60	+4.5	L −1.5	133.5	U 114
Feb 24	@OKST	L 84-91	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 175
Feb 28	vsBYU	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 150
Mar 3	@KSU	L 63-65	-3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 6	vsUCF	W 77-62	-4.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 139
Mar 11	vsBYU	L 48-68	+3.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsSTAN	W 82-77	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 159
Apr 4	vsCREI	W 87-70	-1.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 157
Apr 5	vsOU	W 89-82	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−3.5

CAM

W 73-65

−7.5

LEH

W 69-47

+4.5

PITT

W 71-49

+16.5

LAF

W 81-59

−2.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+1.5

XAV

L 68-78

−15.5

MERC

W 70-38

+10.5

COPP

W 91-49

+10.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−11.5

W 90-58

+4.5

OSU

L 88-89

+2.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−7.5

ISU

L 59-80

−4.5

CIN

W 62-60

+3.5

W 86-75

+13.5

HOU

L 48-77

−15.5

COLO

W 72-61

+4.5

ASU

W 75-63

+13.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−17.5

KSU

W 59-54

−2.5

BAY

L 53-63

−12.5

CIN

W 59-54

+10.5

TTU

L 63-70

−2.5

UCF

W 74-67

+10.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−15.5

TCU

L 54-60

−1.5

OKST

L 84-91

−5.5

BYU

W 79-71

+10.5

KSU

L 63-65

−5.5

UCF

W 77-62

+10.5

BYU

L 48-68

−16.5

STAN

W 82-77

+2.5

CREI

W 87-70

+15.5

W 89-82

+10.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−12.5

CAM

W 73-65

−0.5

LEH

W 69-47

−23.5

PITT

W 71-49

−14.5

LAF

W 81-59

+4.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+4.5

XAV

L 68-78

+5.5

MERC

W 70-38

−19.5

COPP

W 91-49

+5.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−2.5

W 90-58

+15.5

OSU

L 88-89

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−0.5

ISU

L 59-80

−3.5

CIN

W 62-60

−10.5

W 86-75

+21.5

HOU

L 48-77

−2.5

COLO

W 72-61

−8.5

ASU

W 75-63

−7.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−2.5

KSU

W 59-54

−33.5

BAY

L 53-63

−23.5

CIN

W 59-54

−14.5

TTU

L 63-70

−6.5

UCF

W 74-67

+0.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−16.5

TCU

L 54-60

−19.5

OKST

L 84-91

+30.5

BYU

W 79-71

+8.5

KSU

L 63-65

−15.5

UCF

W 77-62

−3.5

BYU

L 48-68

−25.5

STAN

W 82-77

+23.5

CREI

W 87-70

+19.5

W 89-82

+29.5

over 13under 22avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Virginia Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Virginia Tech 2, West Virginia 1, even 2

Virginia TechBetterWest Virginia

G E. Copeland TR14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 67

WVUSmall

G F. Bizjack TR17.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 88

G B. Hammond13.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 3.2 ast Score 89

VTBig

G S. Traore TR9 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 46

G I. Elohim TR12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71

VTSmall

G M. Somerville TR8 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54

G T. Johnson8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 77

Even

F B. Lorient11.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 91

F A. Hansberry14.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92

Even

F J. Buchanan TR12.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

Virginia TechBetterWest Virginia

VT offense68th of 366 · +1.8

Even

WVU defense19th of 366 · +5.5

VT defense72nd of 366 · +0.8

Even

WVU offense77th of 366 · +0.9

Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players

VTBig

Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player

WVUSmall

Frontcourt+6.2 · 2 players

Bench+1.5 · 5 players

Even

Bench+1.6 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestVT betterWVU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Virginia Tech

Guards

E. Copeland32 min · TRB. Hammond32 minI. Elohim29 min · TRT. Johnson26 minJ. Curry24 min · TRB. Johnson21 min · TR

Forwards

A. Hansberry31 minM. Heide19 min · TRK. Atak14 min · TRS. Jones7 min

Centers

M. Sagnia12 min · TRS. DavisNew

West Virginia

Guards

F. Bizjack34 min · TRS. Traore29 min · TRM. Somerville26 min · TRJ. Sanon21 min · TRA. Jenkins16 minM. FeenaneNew

Forwards

B. Lorient29 minJ. Buchanan28 min · TRM. OlejaszNew

Centers

M. Sylla21 min · TRA. DioumNewA. SeiniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

VT78.8 #85

WVU70.6 #271

Points per possession

VT1.13 #89

WVU1.08 #183

Pace (possessions)

VT69.8 #127

WVU65.3 #336

Shooting

Effective FG%

VT52.2 #134

WVU51.6 #166

3-point %

VT35.5 #88

WVU33.0 #227

3-point attempt rate

VT39.7 #179

WVU43.0 #118

Free throw rate

VT34.0 #209

WVU35.1 #173

Possessions

Turnover rate

VT14.9 #60

WVU16.8 #188

Offensive rebound rate

VT31.9 #129

WVU30.5 #178

Assists per game

VT14.4 #122

WVU12.8 #228

Defense

Points allowed

VT74.9 #184

WVU65.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

VT1.07 #141

WVU1.01 #34

Opponent effective FG%

VT50.9 #147

WVU48.5 #50

Opponent 3-point %

VT30.6 #26

WVU34.3 #201

Turnovers forced

VT17.3 #131

WVU17.8 #108

Defensive rebound rate

VT67.4 #284

WVU71.4 #86

Steals per game

VT6.4 #187

WVU6.3 #195

Blocks per game

VT3.2 #190

WVU3.1 #204

VT		WVU
Scoring
78.8 #85	Points per game	70.6 #271
1.13 #89	Points per possession	1.08 #183
69.8 #127	Pace (possessions)	65.3 #336
Shooting
52.2 #134	Effective FG%	51.6 #166
35.5 #88	3-point %	33.0 #227
39.7 #179	3-point attempt rate	43.0 #118
34.0 #209	Free throw rate	35.1 #173
Possessions
14.9 #60	Turnover rate	16.8 #188
31.9 #129	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #178
14.4 #122	Assists per game	12.8 #228
Defense
74.9 #184	Points allowed	65.7 #11
1.07 #141	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #34
50.9 #147	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #50
30.6 #26	Opponent 3-point %	34.3 #201
17.3 #131	Turnovers forced	17.8 #108
67.4 #284	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #86
6.4 #187	Steals per game	6.3 #195
3.2 #190	Blocks per game	3.1 #204

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Virginia Tech

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wake Forest89–95
L@ Virginia72–76
Wvs Boston College72–63
L@ North Carolina82–89
Wvs Wake Forest82–63

A week or more of rest.

West Virginia

21-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Oklahoma89–82
Wvs Creighton87–70
Wvs Stanford82–77
Lvs BYU48–68
Wvs UCF77–62

A week or more of rest.

Virginia Tech Hokies at West Virginia Mountaineers

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Virginia Tech

West Virginia

Virginia Tech has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Virginia Tech

West Virginia