1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. STET @ MIA
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Stetson Hatters at Miami Hurricanes

Watsco Center · at Miami
#303STETStetson
@
#25MIAMiami AP #14
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
STETThis seasonMIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 92–60 · win probability MIA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

STET 1, MIA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIABig
MIA offense vs STET defense
Offense 30th of 366 against a defense 328th, on the model’s ratings
MIABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: STET 26.6%, MIA 37.2%. Defensive: STET 68.2%, MIA 74.1%
MIABig
STET offense vs MIA defense
Offense 273rd of 366 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
MIABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: STET 18.2%, MIA 16.1%. Forced: STET 15.1%, MIA 18.3%
Context
Schedule so far
STET has played the 220th-hardest schedule, MIA the 75th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: STET 53.1 and allows 55.2; MIA 55.3 and allows 51.8
MIASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: STET 32.5, MIA 37.1. Allowed: STET 30.4, MIA 29.5
STETSmall
Three-pointers
STET hits 36.0% and allows 34.5%; MIA hits 34.9% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 44.8% and 31.9% of their shots
MIASmall
Home court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 0-0 at home, STET 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: STET plays 68.2 a game (221st fastest), MIA 69.2 (170th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: STET 51%, MIA 52%. Transfers in: STET 3, MIA 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIA -31.8—
Total—151.9—
Projected score—STET 60 · MIA 91.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIA -18.8—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreSTET 26.1 · MIA 44.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Miami has the better starters

Position by position: Stetson 0, Miami 4, even 1
StetsonBetterMiami
G D. Macgregor4.8 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 26
MIABig
G B. Bland TR13.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
F C. Kuhl13.2 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 87
Even
G A. Lewis TR12.2 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92
F F. Sheridan7.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21
MIABig
F D. Goode TR15.7 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
F M. Myles TR7.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 66
MIASmall
F S. Henderson13.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
F A. Doyle5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9
MIABig
F M. Reneau18.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 98
StetsonBetterMiami
STET offense273rd of 366 · -8.3
MIABig
MIA defense26th of 366 · +4.3
STET defense328th of 366 · -8.5
MIABig
MIA offense30th of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-1.4 · 1 player
MIABig
Backcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 4 players
MIABig
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
Bench-5.1 · 5 players
MIABig
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSTET betterMIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Stetson
Guards
D. Macgregor19 minS. Morgan14 minT. Sucatzky13 min · TRM. McGowan2 minI. Jones2 minB. Gladieux2 min
Forwards
C. Kuhl24 minF. Sheridan23 minM. Myles21 min · TRA. Doyle17 minM. Entenmann12 min · TRJ. Boyomo KeediNew
Miami
Guards
B. Bland34 min · TRA. Lewis31 min · TRD. Allen24 minN. Dorn23 min · TRL. Cason19 min · TRQ. Berger17 min · TR
Forwards
D. Goode31 min · TRS. Henderson31 minM. Reneau29 minR. Miller19 min · TRM. Allen19 minC. GaskinsNew
Centers
S. Cyril21 min · TRE. RyzhovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
STETMIA
Scoring
71.9 #246Points per game81.5 #39
1.06 #231Points per possession1.18 #38
68.2 #221Pace (possessions)69.2 #170
Shooting
53.1 #96Effective FG%55.3 #32
36.0 #593-point %34.9 #127
44.8 #753-point attempt rate31.9 #331
32.5 #250Free throw rate37.1 #125
Possessions
18.2 #284Turnover rate16.1 #147
26.6 #308Offensive rebound rate37.2 #14
14.7 #105Assists per game16.2 #42
Defense
79.9 #315Points allowed71.2 #79
1.17 #339Points allowed per possession1.03 #60
55.2 #338Opponent effective FG%51.8 #198
34.5 #223Opponent 3-point %35.8 #296
15.1 #278Turnovers forced18.3 #87
68.2 #250Defensive rebound rate74.1 #19
6.2 #213Steals per game7.9 #48
2.0 #344Blocks per game3.3 #174
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stetson

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Austin Peay60–69
  • Wvs E Kentucky92–76
  • Wvs FGCU78–63
  • L@ Jacksonville85–89
  • Wvs North Florida76–71

A week or more of rest.

Miami

26-9 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue69–79
  • Wvs Missouri80–66
  • Lvs Virginia62–84
  • Wvs Louisville78–73
  • Lvs Louisville89–92

A week or more of rest.