Houston Christian Huskies at McNeese Cowboys: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 5:00 PM ETTownsley Law Arena · at McNeese · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hou Christian and McNeese
HCU	This season	MCN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MCN 77–62 · win probability MCN 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MCN has more of the edges

HCU 1, MCN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MCNBig

HCU offense vs MCN defense

Offense 342nd of 366 against a defense 117th, on the model’s ratings

MCNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HCU 18.9%, MCN 14.2%. Forced: HCU 17.6%, MCN 24.4%

MCNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HCU 49.7 and allows 54.2; MCN 50.7 and allows 49.3

HCUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HCU 36.0, MCN 37.4. Allowed: HCU 30.7, MCN 42.0

Context

Schedule so far

HCU has played the 332nd-hardest schedule, MCN the 258th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MCNSmall

Three-pointers

HCU hits 31.7% and allows 35.0%; MCN hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 36.5% and 35.2% of their shots

MCNSmall

Home court

MCN at home. This season: MCN 0-0 at home, HCU 0-0 away

MCNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HCU 29.9%, MCN 35.1%. Defensive: HCU 67.5%, MCN 65.1%

MCNSmall

MCN offense vs HCU defense

Offense 153rd of 366 against a defense 203rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: HCU plays 64.7 a game (352nd fastest), MCN 67.1 (276th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HCU 25%, MCN 33%. Transfers in: HCU 5, MCN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MCN -14.6	—
Total	—	139.2	—
Projected score	—	HCU 62.3 · MCN 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MCN -8.6	—
1H total	65.2	—
1H projected score	HCU 28.3 · MCN 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HCU LWLWL	14-16	47%	8-9	—
MCN LWLWW	16-16	50%	7-5	—

Venue/role: HCU away; MCN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HCU UUUUU	14-16	47%	10-20
MCN UUOOU	15-17	47%	26-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HCU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
MCN	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hou Christian

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	@ SELA	L47–55LU

McNeese

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs UIW	W81–64WU
Dec 10	vs USM	W67–48WU
Dec 13	vs LMU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

HCU 3–6 MCNMCN leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MCN has won the last 5 meetings · HCU 7-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	HCU 69 @ MCN 73	MCN -21.5	HCU W
Dec 15, 2025-26	MCN 78 @ HCU 68	HCU +14.5	HCU W
Jan 13, 2024-25	MCN 75 @ HCU 59	HCU +14.5	MCN W
Mar 4, 2023-24	HCU 69 @ MCN 87	MCN -29.5	HCU W
Feb 12, 2023-24	MCN 105 @ HCU 54	HCU +19.5	MCN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hou Christian

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W L W L L L L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L L W W L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U U O O O O O O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UCSD	L 60-78	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 13	vsULM	W 72-61	-8.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	@BELL	L 69-74	-2.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 26	@CIT	W 72-65	-1.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 29	@GASO	L 62-80	+7.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 2	@UNT	L 75-77	+11.5	W +9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 6	@NOLA	W 85-76	+4.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsSELA	L 71-74	-2.5	L −5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsMCN	L 68-78	+14.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 146
Dec 17	@NICH	L 64-79	+3.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 143
Dec 29	@ISU	L 61-89	+35.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 3	@UIW	L 56-73	+6.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 5	vsAMCC	L 65-81	+3.5	L −12.5	132.5	O 146
Jan 10	@SFA	L 67-85	+12.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 12	@LAM	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsETAM	W 81-70	-2.5	W +8.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 19	vsNWST	W 82-80	-2.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 162
Jan 24	vsRGV	L 51-68	+2.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 27	vsUIW	W 81-75	+1.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 31	@AMCC	L 71-73	+7.5	W +5.5	135.5	O 144
Feb 2	@RGV	L 57-74	+9.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 7	@SELA	L 47-55	+4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	@MCN	L 69-73	+21.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsNOLA	W 61-60	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 121
Feb 16	vsNICH	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 140
Feb 21	@NWST	L 53-71	+2.5	L −15.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 23	@ETAM	W 69-68	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 28	vsSFA	L 56-77	+8.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 133
Mar 2	vsLAM	W 75-53	+2.5	W +24.5	132.5	U 128
Mar 8	vsNOLA	L 60-73	+5.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−10.5

ULM

W 72-61

+2.5

BELL

L 69-74

−7.5

CIT

W 72-65

+5.5

GASO

L 62-80

−10.5

UNT

L 75-77

+9.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+13.5

SELA

L 71-74

−5.5

MCN

L 68-78

+4.5

NICH

L 64-79

−11.5

ISU

L 61-89

+7.5

UIW

L 56-73

−10.5

AMCC

L 65-81

−12.5

SFA

L 67-85

−5.5

LAM

L 56-64

+0.5

ETAM

W 81-70

+8.5

NWST

W 82-80

−0.5

RGV

L 51-68

−14.5

UIW

W 81-75

+7.5

AMCC

L 71-73

+5.5

RGV

L 57-74

−7.5

SELA

L 47-55

−3.5

MCN

L 69-73

+17.5

NOLA

W 61-60

−0.5

NICH

W 72-68

+2.5

NWST

L 53-71

−15.5

ETAM

W 69-68

+3.5

SFA

L 56-77

−12.5

LAM

W 75-53

+24.5

NOLA

L 60-73

−7.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−3.5

ULM

W 72-61

−10.5

BELL

L 69-74

−1.5

CIT

W 72-65

−0.5

GASO

L 62-80

−6.5

UNT

L 75-77

+24.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+20.5

SELA

L 71-74

+12.5

MCN

L 68-78

+8.5

NICH

L 64-79

+5.5

ISU

L 61-89

+4.5

UIW

L 56-73

−12.5

AMCC

L 65-81

+13.5

SFA

L 67-85

+14.5

LAM

L 56-64

−14.5

ETAM

W 81-70

+11.5

NWST

W 82-80

+22.5

RGV

L 51-68

−21.5

UIW

W 81-75

+15.5

AMCC

L 71-73

+8.5

RGV

L 57-74

−10.5

SELA

L 47-55

−31.5

MCN

L 69-73

+4.5

NOLA

W 61-60

−27.5

NICH

W 72-68

+3.5

NWST

L 53-71

−10.5

ETAM

W 69-68

−1.5

SFA

L 56-77

−5.5

LAM

W 75-53

−4.5

NOLA

L 60-73

−10.5

over 14under 16avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

McNeese

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L W W W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W L L L W L W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O U U U O U O O O O U U O O U U O U U U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SCU	L 67-79	+6.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 14	vsUL	W 88-62	-15.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 23	vsGW	W 92-86	+5.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMUR	W 73-60	-2.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsMTSU	W 72-62	-9.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	@UIW	L 67-71	-10.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 138
Dec 5	vsNWST	W 92-54	-19.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 146
Dec 9	@URI	W 66-64	-1.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 12	vsETAM	W 102-66	-20.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 168
Dec 15	@HCU	W 78-68	-14.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 146
Dec 29	@MICH	L 71-112	+24.5	L −16.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 2	vsLAM	W 82-70	-16.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 5	vsSFA	W 66-64	-10.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsSELA	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNICH	W 94-68	-15.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 17	@RGV	L 76-79	-9.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 19	@AMCC	W 69-53	-9.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 122
Jan 24	vsNOLA	W 82-63	-18.5	W +0.5	156.5	U 145
Jan 27	@SELA	W 76-66	-12.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@LAM	W 64-63	-10.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 2	@SFA	L 60-67	-2.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsUIW	W 81-64	-16.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 9	vsHCU	W 73-69	-21.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 142
Feb 14	@ETAM	W 97-54	-13.5	W +29.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 16	@NWST	W 75-64	-14.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 139
Feb 21	vsAMCC	W 70-54	-14.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 23	vsRGV	W 75-68	-11.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 143
Feb 28	@NOLA	W 66-63	-10.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 129
Mar 2	@NICH	W 75-65	-9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsRGV	W 84-80	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 164
Mar 11	vsSFA	W 76-59	-3.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 19	vsVAN	L 68-78	+12.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+10.5

W 92-86

+11.5

MUR

W 73-60

+10.5

MTSU

W 72-62

+0.5

UIW

L 67-71

−14.5

NWST

W 92-54

+18.5

URI

W 66-64

+0.5

ETAM

W 102-66

+15.5

HCU

W 78-68

−4.5

MICH

L 71-112

−16.5

LAM

W 82-70

−4.5

SFA

W 66-64

−8.5

SELA

W 73-61

−4.5

NICH

W 94-68

+10.5

RGV

L 76-79

−12.5

AMCC

W 69-53

+6.5

NOLA

W 82-63

+0.5

SELA

W 76-66

−2.5

LAM

W 64-63

−9.5

SFA

L 60-67

−9.5

UIW

W 81-64

+0.5

HCU

W 73-69

−17.5

ETAM

W 97-54

+29.5

NWST

W 75-64

−3.5

AMCC

W 70-54

+1.5

RGV

W 75-68

−4.5

NOLA

W 66-63

−7.5

NICH

W 75-65

+0.5

RGV

W 84-80

−4.5

SFA

W 76-59

+13.5

VAN

L 68-78

+2.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+15.5

W 92-86

+20.5

MUR

W 73-60

−25.5

MTSU

W 72-62

−13.5

UIW

L 67-71

−7.5

NWST

W 92-54

+6.5

URI

W 66-64

−16.5

ETAM

W 102-66

+25.5

HCU

W 78-68

+8.5

MICH

L 71-112

+21.5

LAM

W 82-70

+6.5

SFA

W 66-64

−14.5

SELA

W 73-61

−4.5

NICH

W 94-68

+15.5

RGV

L 76-79

+8.5

AMCC

W 69-53

−18.5

NOLA

W 82-63

−11.5

SELA

W 76-66

+2.5

LAM

W 64-63

−17.5

SFA

L 60-67

−14.5

UIW

W 81-64

−0.5

HCU

W 73-69

+4.5

ETAM

W 97-54

+8.5

NWST

W 75-64

+0.5

AMCC

W 70-54

−15.5

RGV

W 75-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 66-63

−21.5

NICH

W 75-65

−5.5

RGV

W 84-80

+23.5

SFA

W 76-59

+0.5

VAN

L 68-78

−2.5

over 15under 17avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

McNeese has the better starters

Position by position: Hou Christian 0, McNeese 2, even 3

Hou ChristianBetterMcNeese

G C. Mubiru TR6.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 37

MCNBig

G L. Johnson16.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98

G D. Samuels8.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 2 ast Score 46

Even

G C. Cherenfant3.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38

G E. Pippa-White TR4.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 5

No call

G D. Warren TR1.2 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

F S. Simmons TR6.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

Even

F J. Colbert5.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 29

F M. Mara5.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

MCNBig

F C. Chest TR2.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 71

Hou ChristianBetterMcNeese

HCU offense342nd of 366 · -11.7

MCNBig

MCN defense117th of 366 · -1.6

HCU defense203rd of 366 · -5.0

Even

MCN offense153rd of 366 · -4.7

Backcourt-4.6 · 3 players

MCNBig

Backcourt+3.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

MCNSmall

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

Bench-3.9 · 3 players

MCNBig

Bench-0.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestHCU betterMCN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hou Christian

Guards

C. Mubiru27 min · TRD. Samuels23 minE. Pippa-White18 min · TRB. Alvarez15 min · TRK. Clark7 minM. AlexanderNew

Forwards

S. Simmons26 min · TRM. Mara20 minA. Miller15 min · TRI. SackoNewK. KeinysNewJ. PapeNew

McNeese

Guards

L. Johnson26 minC. Cherenfant16 minD. Warren8 min · TRE. Moore5 min · TRJ. Rembert4 minJ. Dean-Vines3 min · TR

Forwards

J. Colbert20 minC. Chest13 min · TRA. Maluk7 min · TRC. NituNewM. MadisonNewA. MazouNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HCU66.3 #342

MCN76.6 #131

Points per possession

HCU1.03 #297

MCN1.14 #69

Pace (possessions)

HCU64.7 #352

MCN67.1 #276

Shooting

Effective FG%

HCU49.7 #252

MCN50.7 #202

3-point %

HCU31.7 #291

MCN31.7 #290

3-point attempt rate

HCU36.5 #239

MCN35.2 #269

Free throw rate

HCU36.0 #151

MCN37.4 #114

Possessions

Turnover rate

HCU18.9 #317

MCN14.2 #28

Offensive rebound rate

HCU29.9 #205

MCN35.1 #46

Assists per game

HCU13.7 #164

MCN13.1 #205

Defense

Points allowed

HCU72.4 #113

MCN67.4 #23

Points allowed per possession

HCU1.12 #268

MCN1.00 #27

Opponent effective FG%

HCU54.2 #304

MCN49.3 #76

Opponent 3-point %

HCU35.0 #248

MCN32.7 #102

Turnovers forced

HCU17.6 #117

MCN24.4 #1

Defensive rebound rate

HCU67.5 #279

MCN65.1 #338

Steals per game

HCU6.3 #200

MCN10.3 #1

Blocks per game

HCU3.7 #111

MCN4.4 #42

HCU		MCN
Scoring
66.3 #342	Points per game	76.6 #131
1.03 #297	Points per possession	1.14 #69
64.7 #352	Pace (possessions)	67.1 #276
Shooting
49.7 #252	Effective FG%	50.7 #202
31.7 #291	3-point %	31.7 #290
36.5 #239	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #269
36.0 #151	Free throw rate	37.4 #114
Possessions
18.9 #317	Turnover rate	14.2 #28
29.9 #205	Offensive rebound rate	35.1 #46
13.7 #164	Assists per game	13.1 #205
Defense
72.4 #113	Points allowed	67.4 #23
1.12 #268	Points allowed per possession	1.00 #27
54.2 #304	Opponent effective FG%	49.3 #76
35.0 #248	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #102
17.6 #117	Turnovers forced	24.4 #1
67.5 #279	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #338
6.3 #200	Steals per game	10.3 #1
3.7 #111	Blocks per game	4.4 #42

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hou Christian

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs LSU N Orleans60–73
Wvs Lamar75–53
Lvs SF Austin56–77
W@ East Texas A&M69–68
L@ N'Western St53–71

A week or more of rest.

McNeese

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Vanderbilt68–78
Wvs SF Austin76–59
Wvs UT Rio Grande84–80
W@ Nicholls75–65
W@ LSU N Orleans66–63

A week or more of rest.

Houston Christian Huskies at McNeese Cowboys

What could decide it: MCN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Hou Christian

McNeese

McNeese has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hou Christian

McNeese