1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. UVA vs MARQ
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Virginia Cavaliers vs Marquette Golden Eagles

Imperial Arena · Neutral site
#20UVAVirginia AP #9
vs
#42MARQMarquette
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UVAThis seasonMARQ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 79–72 · win probability UVA 74%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

UVA 3, MARQ 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UVA 37.9%, MARQ 29.7%. Defensive: UVA 70.8%, MARQ 65.3%
UVABig
Three-pointers
UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%; MARQ hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 46.7% and 42.2% of their shots
UVABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8; MARQ 50.5 and allows 50.6
MARQSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UVA 16.0%, MARQ 16.1%. Forced: UVA 15.4%, MARQ 19.3%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UVA plays 67.6 a game (247th fastest), MARQ 70.9 (79th). Faster games mean more points
Even
MARQ offense vs UVA defense
Offense 46th of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UVA has played the 68th-hardest schedule, MARQ the 37th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UVA 32.3, MARQ 32.8. Allowed: UVA 32.9, MARQ 32.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UVA 57%, MARQ 64%. Transfers in: UVA 3, MARQ 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
UVA offense vs MARQ defense
Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 36th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVA -7.5—
Total—151.1—
Projected score—UVA 79.3 · MARQ 71.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVA -4.6—
1H total70.7—
1H projected scoreUVA 37.6 · MARQ 33—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Marquette has the better starters

Position by position: Virginia 1, Marquette 2, even 2
VirginiaBetterMarquette
G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82
UVABig
G C. Porter TR11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 45
G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66
MARQSmall
G N. Minessale TR19.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 4.2 ast Score 97
G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73
MARQSmall
G N. James16.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.9 ast Score 99
G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
Even
G A. Stevens7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 65
F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
Even
F R. Parham12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 87
VirginiaBetterMarquette
UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9
Even
MARQ defense36th of 366 · +3.1
UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6
Even
MARQ offense46th of 366 · +4.2
Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players
MARQBig
Backcourt+8.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player
UVASmall
Frontcourt+2.5 · 1 player
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
UVASmall
Bench+2.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUVA betterMARQ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Virginia
Guards
J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min
Forwards
T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew
Centers
J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew
Marquette
Guards
C. Porter35 min · TRN. Minessale32 min · TRN. James29 minA. Stevens26 minE. JohnstonNewN. WalkerNew
Forwards
R. Parham29 minS. Fru22 min · TRD. Owens16 minC. Hamilton13 minM. Phillips8 minJ. Clark6 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UVAMARQ
Scoring
80.4 #57Points per game75.2 #160
1.19 #21Points per possession1.06 #223
67.6 #247Pace (possessions)70.9 #79
Shooting
54.6 #49Effective FG%50.5 #215
36.3 #483-point %31.7 #297
46.7 #363-point attempt rate42.2 #133
32.3 #253Free throw rate32.8 #243
Possessions
16.0 #141Turnover rate16.1 #145
37.9 #9Offensive rebound rate29.7 #216
16.3 #41Assists per game15.5 #63
Defense
68.8 #46Points allowed75.8 #213
1.02 #39Points allowed per possession1.07 #125
45.8 #8Opponent effective FG%50.6 #131
31.6 #46Opponent 3-point %32.7 #104
15.4 #256Turnovers forced19.3 #39
70.8 #120Defensive rebound rate65.3 #331
6.3 #199Steals per game9.3 #5
6.4 #1Blocks per game3.1 #207
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee72–79
  • Wvs Wright St82–73
  • Lvs Duke70–74
  • Wvs Miami84–62
  • Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.

Marquette

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Xavier87–89
  • Wvs UConn68–62
  • W@ Providence78–56
  • Lvs DePaul51–62
  • W@ Georgetown76–60

A week or more of rest.