1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. YALE vs WRST
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Yale Bulldogs vs Wright State Raiders

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#126YALEYale
vs
#180WRSTWright St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
YALEThis seasonWRST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects YALE 77–74 · win probability YALE 61%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: YALE has more of the edges

YALE 2, WRST 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
YALE has played the 141st-hardest schedule, WRST the 264th. A record against a soft schedule means less
YALESmall
YALE offense vs WRST defense
Offense 125th of 366 against a defense 215th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: YALE plays 66.4 a game (301st fastest), WRST 69.1 (171st). Faster games mean more points
YALESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: YALE 14.0%, WRST 16.1%. Forced: YALE 16.2%, WRST 16.6%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: YALE 55.6 and allows 51.6; WRST 54.3 and allows 52.4
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: YALE 35.1, WRST 37.4. Allowed: YALE 26.8, WRST 33.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: YALE 42%, WRST 32%. Transfers in: YALE 0, WRST 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
WRST offense vs YALE defense
Offense 148th of 366 against a defense 136th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: YALE 34.2%, WRST 32.8%. Defensive: YALE 70.3%, WRST 70.6%
Even
Three-pointers
YALE hits 39.4% and allows 35.0%; WRST hits 36.4% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 36.1% and 34.2% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—YALE -3.3—
Total—150.4—
Projected score—YALE 76.9 · WRST 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadYALE -2.1—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreYALE 36.2 · WRST 34.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Yale 0, Wright St 0, even 5
YaleBetterWright St
G T. Mullin11.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63
Even
G C. O'Hara TR14.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 66
G J. Brathwaite6.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 35
Even
G D. Pangonis8.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30
G C. Wallace1.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Traylor TR3.8 pts · 1.1 reb · 2 ast Score 21
F R. Fox9.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 76
Even
G A. Holden5.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 78
F J. Sullivan1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F K. Pickett8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 67
YaleBetterWright St
YALE offense125th of 366 · -3.3
YALESmall
WRST defense215th of 366 · -5.6
YALE defense136th of 366 · -2.8
Even
WRST offense148th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
YALESmall
Backcourt-2.5 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+0.6 · 1 player
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestYALE betterWRST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Yale
Guards
T. Mullin28 minJ. Brathwaite19 minC. Wallace4 minJ. Basima3 minA. Loving3 minJ. Tsai2 min
Forwards
R. Fox18 minJ. Sullivan5 minD. Ogunyemi3 minC. MayNewT. WinklerNewC. BolteNew
Centers
J. OwareNew
Wright St
Guards
C. O'Hara33 min · TRD. Pangonis27 minC. Traylor17 min · TRA. Holden14 minI. Milijasevic8 min · TRP. DouglasNew
Forwards
K. Pickett23 minS. JohnsonNewN. LewisNew
Centers
N. Djapa10 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
YALEWRST
Scoring
80.1 #64Points per game79.8 #72
1.21 #10Points per possession1.16 #54
66.4 #301Pace (possessions)69.1 #171
Shooting
55.6 #26Effective FG%54.3 #56
39.4 #33-point %36.4 #44
36.1 #2473-point attempt rate34.2 #290
35.1 #172Free throw rate37.4 #120
Possessions
14.0 #22Turnover rate16.1 #149
34.2 #62Offensive rebound rate32.8 #91
15.8 #53Assists per game13.2 #199
Defense
71.8 #102Points allowed75.6 #206
1.08 #166Points allowed per possession1.09 #201
51.6 #192Opponent effective FG%52.4 #238
35.0 #250Opponent 3-point %34.3 #203
16.2 #207Turnovers forced16.6 #179
70.3 #147Defensive rebound rate70.6 #129
5.3 #314Steals per game7.1 #114
3.2 #193Blocks per game4.4 #47
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Yale

22-7 in 2025-26 overall · 12-4 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington67–68
  • Lvs Penn84–88
  • Wvs Cornell88–76
  • Wvs Princeton78–53
  • W@ Columbia60–54

A week or more of rest.

Wright St

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Virginia73–82
  • Wvs Detroit Mercy66–63
  • Wvs N Kentucky103–90
  • Wvs Cleveland St90–61
  • W@ N Kentucky92–91

A week or more of rest.