Lindenwood Lions at Stony Brook Seawolves: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 1:00 PM ETStony Brook Arena · at Stony Brook

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lindenwood Lions and Stony Brook
LIN	This season	STBK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STBK 76–71 · win probability STBK 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STBK has more of the edges

LIN 2, STBK 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

LIN has played the 357th-hardest schedule, STBK the 204th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: LIN plays 73.0 a game (18th fastest), STBK 67.3 (269th). Faster games mean more points

LINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIN 33.3%, STBK 28.0%. Defensive: LIN 68.3%, STBK 67.7%

LINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIN 38.6, STBK 28.4. Allowed: LIN 37.4, STBK 35.4

STBKSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIN 0%, STBK 48%. Transfers in: LIN 0, STBK 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

STBKSmall

LIN offense vs STBK defense

Offense 250th of 366 against a defense 164th, on the model’s ratings

STBKSmall

Home court

STBK at home. This season: STBK 0-0 at home, LIN 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIN 18.7%, STBK 16.7%. Forced: LIN 18.4%, STBK 17.2%

Even

STBK offense vs LIN defense

Offense 235th of 366 against a defense 261st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIN 48.0 and allows 49.1; STBK 50.2 and allows 50.7

Even

Three-pointers

LIN hits 29.4% and allows 32.4%; STBK hits 34.8% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 30.7% and 45.8% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	STBK -5.5	—
Total	—	146.4	—
Projected score	—	LIN 70.5 · STBK 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STBK -3.1	—
1H total	68.5	—
1H projected score	LIN 32.7 · STBK 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIN LLWWW	13-17	43%	6-10	—
STBK WLWLL	18-12	60%	10-4	—

Venue/role: LIN away; STBK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIN UUOUU	17-13	57%	15-15
STBK OOUUO	15-15	50%	15-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
STBK	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lindenwood Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	@ MOST	L65–70LU
Dec 5	vs OMA	W72–70WU
Dec 12	vs NIU	W99–64WO

Stony Brook

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs DEL	L76–80WO
Dec 2	vs UMES	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ ME	W71–60WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lindenwood Lions

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L L W L L W W W W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L L W L W W W L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O U U U O O O U U O U O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@TTU	L 60-98	+29.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 10	@SLU	L 66-109	+24.5	L −18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 14	vsCHSO	W 83-77	-2.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 16	@AAMU	L 65-74	+3.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 20	@IU	L 53-73	+32.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsKC	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 147
Dec 2	@NIU	W 99-64	+3.5	W +38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@EIU	W 82-74	-8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 18	vsWIU	W 92-76	-12.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 23	@MOST	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 1	vsMORE	W 77-64	-6.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUSI	W 83-80	-9.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 6	@SIUE	L 62-66	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsLR	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	@SEMO	W 88-76	+6.5	W +18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	@UTM	L 55-69	+2.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 124
Jan 22	vsTNTC	W 89-68	-8.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsTNST	L 86-96	-4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	@USI	W 73-60	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@MORE	W 79-78	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 3	vsSIUE	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LR	W 79-74	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 12	vsUTM	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsSEMO	L 61-73	-1.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 19	@TNST	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	@TNTC	L 57-72	-1.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	vsEIU	L 67-71	-7.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@WIU	W 91-69	-11.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 4	vsLR	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsSEMO	L 66-68	+3.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

−8.5

SLU

L 66-109

−18.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+3.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−5.5

L 53-73

+12.5

W 80-67

+8.5

NIU

W 99-64

+38.5

EIU

W 82-74

−0.5

WIU

W 92-76

+3.5

MOST

L 65-70

−1.5

W 77-64

+6.5

USI

W 83-80

−6.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−2.5

L 74-82

−14.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+18.5

UTM

L 55-69

−11.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+12.5

TNST

L 86-96

−14.5

USI

W 73-60

+8.5

W 79-78

−0.5

SIUE

L 72-78

−10.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

−0.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−13.5

TNST

L 80-89

−5.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−16.5

EIU

L 67-71

−11.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

+4.5

SEMO

L 66-68

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

+11.5

SLU

L 66-109

+9.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+4.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−10.5

L 53-73

−29.5

W 80-67

−5.5

NIU

W 99-64

+15.5

EIU

W 82-74

+10.5

WIU

W 92-76

+21.5

MOST

L 65-70

−10.5

W 77-64

−6.5

USI

W 83-80

+15.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−14.5

L 74-82

+6.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+9.5

UTM

L 55-69

−23.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+5.5

TNST

L 86-96

+21.5

USI

W 73-60

−17.5

W 79-78

+8.5

SIUE

L 72-78

+9.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

+3.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−20.5

TNST

L 80-89

+9.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−22.5

EIU

L 67-71

−6.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

−14.5

SEMO

L 66-68

−14.5

over 17under 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stony Brook

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

W L W L W W L W W L L L L W L L W W W W W L W L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1260%

W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L W W W W W W L W L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U U O O O U U U U U O U O O O O U U O U U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsME	W 71-60	-3.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 15	@YALE	L 79-86	+20.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 20	vsBRWN	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 24	vsPAC	L 58-86	+4.5	L −23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsBCU	W 61-54	+4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 115
Nov 28	@LMU	W 71-68	+10.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 6	@DUQ	L 75-84	+9.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 9	vsCOLU	W 77-73	+4.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsCMU	W 78-55	-7.5	W +15.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 17	vsUALB	L 55-71	-10.5	L −26.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 21	@MRST	L 51-70	+6.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 121
Dec 29	@HAMP	L 59-62	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 121
Dec 31	@W&M	L 57-76	+11.5	L −7.5	159.5	U 133
Jan 3	vsNCAT	W 81-80	-4.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 8	@DREX	L 37-56	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 93
Jan 10	vsUNCW	L 71-75	+6.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 146
Jan 15	vsHOF	W 76-71	+6.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 147
Jan 17	vsCOFC	W 112-106	+4.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 218
Jan 22	@NE	W 95-80	+3.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 175
Jan 29	@CAM	W 81-69	+4.5	W +16.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 31	@ELON	W 72-68	+4.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 5	vsMONM	L 75-76	-1.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsNE	W 69-55	-3.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 124
Feb 12	@TOW	L 57-69	+7.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 126
Feb 16	vsDREX	W 72-69	-2.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsHAMP	W 79-72	-5.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 151
Feb 26	@MONM	L 69-82	+3.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 28	@HOF	L 58-67	+11.5	W +2.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 3	vsTOW	L 57-69	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsCAM	L 89-96	+2.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 185

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 71-60

+7.5

YALE

L 79-86

+13.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+6.5

PAC

L 58-86

−23.5

BCU

W 61-54

+11.5

LMU

W 71-68

+13.5

DUQ

L 75-84

+0.5

COLU

W 77-73

+8.5

CMU

W 78-55

+15.5

UALB

L 55-71

−26.5

MRST

L 51-70

−12.5

HAMP

L 59-62

−0.5

W&M

L 57-76

−7.5

NCAT

W 81-80

−3.5

DREX

L 37-56

−13.5

UNCW

L 71-75

+2.5

HOF

W 76-71

+11.5

COFC

W 112-106

+10.5

W 95-80

+18.5

CAM

W 81-69

+16.5

ELON

W 72-68

+8.5

MONM

L 75-76

−2.5

W 69-55

+10.5

TOW

L 57-69

−4.5

DREX

W 72-69

+0.5

HAMP

W 79-72

+1.5

MONM

L 69-82

−9.5

HOF

L 58-67

+2.5

TOW

L 57-69

−10.5

CAM

L 89-96

−4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 71-60

−0.5

YALE

L 79-86

+14.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+13.5

PAC

L 58-86

−1.5

BCU

W 61-54

−30.5

LMU

W 71-68

+0.5

DUQ

L 75-84

+8.5

COLU

W 77-73

+3.5

CMU

W 78-55

−12.5

UALB

L 55-71

−20.5

MRST

L 51-70

−16.5

HAMP

L 59-62

−19.5

W&M

L 57-76

−26.5

NCAT

W 81-80

+19.5

DREX

L 37-56

−39.5

UNCW

L 71-75

+12.5

HOF

W 76-71

+10.5

COFC

W 112-106

+75.5

W 95-80

+26.5

CAM

W 81-69

−2.5

ELON

W 72-68

−8.5

MONM

L 75-76

+13.5

W 69-55

−29.5

TOW

L 57-69

−9.5

DREX

W 72-69

+5.5

HAMP

W 79-72

+15.5

MONM

L 69-82

+5.5

HOF

L 58-67

−15.5

TOW

L 57-69

−11.5

CAM

L 89-96

+36.5

over 15under 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIN74.4 #183

STBK70.7 #270

Points per possession

LIN1.02 #307

STBK1.05 #254

Pace (possessions)

LIN73.0 #18

STBK67.3 #269

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIN48.0 #313

STBK50.2 #227

3-point %

LIN29.4 #347

STBK34.8 #128

3-point attempt rate

LIN30.7 #346

STBK45.8 #50

Free throw rate

LIN38.6 #88

STBK28.4 #339

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIN18.7 #307

STBK16.7 #181

Offensive rebound rate

LIN33.3 #83

STBK28.0 #267

Assists per game

LIN13.0 #212

STBK12.9 #216

Defense

Points allowed

LIN75.0 #190

STBK72.5 #118

Points allowed per possession

LIN1.03 #52

STBK1.08 #168

Opponent effective FG%

LIN49.1 #72

STBK50.7 #138

Opponent 3-point %

LIN32.4 #84

STBK35.7 #291

Turnovers forced

LIN18.4 #78

STBK17.2 #135

Defensive rebound rate

LIN68.3 #244

STBK67.7 #275

Steals per game

LIN8.4 #24

STBK6.3 #201

Blocks per game

LIN4.4 #46

STBK3.6 #122

LIN		STBK
Scoring
74.4 #183	Points per game	70.7 #270
1.02 #307	Points per possession	1.05 #254
73.0 #18	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #269
Shooting
48.0 #313	Effective FG%	50.2 #227
29.4 #347	3-point %	34.8 #128
30.7 #346	3-point attempt rate	45.8 #50
38.6 #88	Free throw rate	28.4 #339
Possessions
18.7 #307	Turnover rate	16.7 #181
33.3 #83	Offensive rebound rate	28.0 #267
13.0 #212	Assists per game	12.9 #216
Defense
75.0 #190	Points allowed	72.5 #118
1.03 #52	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #168
49.1 #72	Opponent effective FG%	50.7 #138
32.4 #84	Opponent 3-point %	35.7 #291
18.4 #78	Turnovers forced	17.2 #135
68.3 #244	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #275
8.4 #24	Steals per game	6.3 #201
4.4 #46	Blocks per game	3.6 #122

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lindenwood Lions

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SE Missouri66–68
Wvs Little Rock72–62
W@ W Illinois91–69
Lvs E Illinois67–71
L@ Tennessee Tech57–72

A week or more of rest.

Stony Brook

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Campbell89–96
Lvs Towson57–69
L@ Hofstra58–67
L@ Monmouth69–82
Wvs Hampton79–72

A week or more of rest.

Lindenwood Lions at Stony Brook Seawolves

What could decide it: STBK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lindenwood Lions

Stony Brook

Matchup stats

Lindenwood Lions

Stony Brook