Delaware Blue Hens at Stony Brook Seawolves: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 4:00 PM ETStony Brook Arena · at Stony Brook

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Delaware and Stony Brook
DEL	This season	STBK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STBK 73–69 · win probability STBK 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEL has more of the edges

DEL 4, STBK 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STBKBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEL 18.3%, STBK 16.7%. Forced: DEL 14.0%, STBK 17.2%

DELSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEL 30.6, STBK 28.4. Allowed: DEL 30.2, STBK 35.4

STBKSmall

DEL offense vs STBK defense

Offense 237th of 366 against a defense 164th, on the model’s ratings

DELSmall

Three-pointers

DEL hits 36.8% and allows 35.1%; STBK hits 34.8% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 46.2% and 45.8% of their shots

STBKSmall

Home court

STBK at home. This season: STBK 0-0 at home, DEL 0-0 away

DELSmall

STBK offense vs DEL defense

Offense 235th of 366 against a defense 187th, on the model’s ratings

DELSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEL 53.3 and allows 51.5; STBK 50.2 and allows 50.7

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: DEL plays 65.3 a game (337th fastest), STBK 67.3 (269th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEL 20.8%, STBK 28.0%. Defensive: DEL 68.9%, STBK 67.7%

Context

Schedule so far

DEL has played the 195th-hardest schedule, STBK the 204th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEL 46%, STBK 48%. Transfers in: DEL 6, STBK 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	STBK -4.5	—
Total	—	142.2	—
Projected score	—	DEL 68.9 · STBK 73.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STBK -2.5	—
1H total	66.6	—
1H projected score	DEL 32 · STBK 34.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEL LLWWL	15-15	50%	7-7	—
STBK WLWLL	18-12	60%	10-4	—

Venue/role: DEL away; STBK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEL OOOOU	16-14	53%	10-20
STBK OOUUO	15-15	50%	15-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEL	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
STBK	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Delaware

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs BUCK	L70–78LU
Dec 5	vs YALE	W100–94WO
Dec 10	vs W&M	W100–78WO

Stony Brook

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs UMES	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ ME	W71–60WU
Dec 12	vs LAS	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DEL 4–1 STBKDEL leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · DEL has won the last 2 meetings · DEL 1-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 7, 2024-25	STBK 76 vs DEL 80	DEL -7.5	STBK W
Jan 16, 2024-25	STBK 74 @ DEL 84	DEL -10.5	STBK W
Mar 2, 2023-24	DEL 56 @ STBK 79	STBK -1.5	STBK W
Jan 18, 2023-24	STBK 68 @ DEL 71	DEL -6.5	STBK W
Feb 13, 2022-23	STBK 60 @ DEL 71	DEL -8.5	DEL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Delaware

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L W L L W L W L L W L L L L L W L L W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W L W L L W L L L W W L W L L L W L W W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U O U U O O U O U U O U U O O O U U U O O U O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUCK	L 70-78	+2.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 11	@BYU	L 68-85	+35.5	W +18.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 18	vsSPU	W 81-70	-4.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsSIU	L 59-79	+8.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 138
Nov 25	vsUNCG	W 73-60	+1.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 1	vsIONA	L 66-89	+1.5	L −21.5	149.5	O 155
Dec 6	@DSU	L 72-75	-7.5	L −10.5	129.5	O 147
Dec 10	@GW	W 70-58	+21.5	W +33.5	152.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsCSUN	L 66-88	-1.5	L −23.5	144.5	O 154
Dec 16	vsRID	W 65-57	-8.5	L −0.5	129.5	U 122
Dec 29	vsMOST	L 43-61	+1.5	L −16.5	131.5	U 104
Jan 2	vsJXST	L 64-67	+4.5	W +1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	vsKENN	W 67-52	+8.5	W +23.5	148.5	U 119
Jan 8	@SHSU	L 60-72	+11.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 10	@LT	L 68-70	+6.5	W +4.5	123.5	O 138
Jan 15	vsUTEP	L 69-70	-1.5	L −2.5	125.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsNMSU	L 68-97	+4.5	L −24.5	134.5	O 165
Jan 24	@LIB	L 51-67	+15.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 118
Jan 28	@NMSU	W 73-64	+13.5	W +22.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 31	@UTEP	L 55-70	+6.5	L −8.5	128.5	U 125
Feb 4	vsLIB	L 69-75	+10.5	W +4.5	132.5	O 144
Feb 7	vsMTSU	W 89-88	+5.5	W +6.5	133.5	O 177
Feb 12	@FIU	W 68-66	+8.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 134
Feb 14	@MOST	W 76-67	+9.5	W +18.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 18	vsWKU	L 87-88	+4.5	W +3.5	139.5	O 175
Feb 21	@MTSU	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 144
Feb 26	@JXST	L 70-80	+7.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 28	@KENN	L 82-90	+11.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsSHSU	W 83-80	+7.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 163
Mar 7	vsLT	L 38-81	+2.5	L −40.5	132.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUCK

L 70-78

−5.5

BYU

L 68-85

+18.5

SPU

W 81-70

+6.5

SIU

L 59-79

−11.5

UNCG

W 73-60

+14.5

IONA

L 66-89

−21.5

DSU

L 72-75

−10.5

W 70-58

+33.5

CSUN

L 66-88

−23.5

RID

W 65-57

−0.5

MOST

L 43-61

−16.5

JXST

L 64-67

+1.5

KENN

W 67-52

+23.5

SHSU

L 60-72

−0.5

L 68-70

+4.5

UTEP

L 69-70

−2.5

NMSU

L 68-97

−24.5

LIB

L 51-67

−0.5

NMSU

W 73-64

+22.5

UTEP

L 55-70

−8.5

LIB

L 69-75

+4.5

MTSU

W 89-88

+6.5

FIU

W 68-66

+10.5

MOST

W 76-67

+18.5

WKU

L 87-88

+3.5

MTSU

L 66-78

−1.5

JXST

L 70-80

−2.5

KENN

L 82-90

+3.5

SHSU

W 83-80

+10.5

L 38-81

−40.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUCK

L 70-78

−1.5

BYU

L 68-85

−11.5

SPU

W 81-70

+13.5

SIU

L 59-79

−15.5

UNCG

W 73-60

−9.5

IONA

L 66-89

+5.5

DSU

L 72-75

+17.5

W 70-58

−24.5

CSUN

L 66-88

+9.5

RID

W 65-57

−7.5

MOST

L 43-61

−27.5

JXST

L 64-67

+4.5

KENN

W 67-52

−29.5

SHSU

L 60-72

−12.5

L 68-70

+14.5

UTEP

L 69-70

+13.5

NMSU

L 68-97

+30.5

LIB

L 51-67

−16.5

NMSU

W 73-64

−0.5

UTEP

L 55-70

−3.5

LIB

L 69-75

+11.5

MTSU

W 89-88

+43.5

FIU

W 68-66

−13.5

MOST

W 76-67

+7.5

WKU

L 87-88

+35.5

MTSU

L 66-78

+6.5

JXST

L 70-80

+16.5

KENN

L 82-90

+28.5

SHSU

W 83-80

+15.5

L 38-81

−13.5

over 16under 14avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stony Brook

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

W L W L W W L W W L L L L W L L W W W W W L W L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1260%

W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L W W W W W W L W L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U U O O O U U U U U O U O O O O U U O U U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsME	W 71-60	-3.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 15	@YALE	L 79-86	+20.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 20	vsBRWN	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 24	vsPAC	L 58-86	+4.5	L −23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsBCU	W 61-54	+4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 115
Nov 28	@LMU	W 71-68	+10.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 6	@DUQ	L 75-84	+9.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 9	vsCOLU	W 77-73	+4.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsCMU	W 78-55	-7.5	W +15.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 17	vsUALB	L 55-71	-10.5	L −26.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 21	@MRST	L 51-70	+6.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 121
Dec 29	@HAMP	L 59-62	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 121
Dec 31	@W&M	L 57-76	+11.5	L −7.5	159.5	U 133
Jan 3	vsNCAT	W 81-80	-4.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 8	@DREX	L 37-56	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 93
Jan 10	vsUNCW	L 71-75	+6.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 146
Jan 15	vsHOF	W 76-71	+6.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 147
Jan 17	vsCOFC	W 112-106	+4.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 218
Jan 22	@NE	W 95-80	+3.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 175
Jan 29	@CAM	W 81-69	+4.5	W +16.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 31	@ELON	W 72-68	+4.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 5	vsMONM	L 75-76	-1.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsNE	W 69-55	-3.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 124
Feb 12	@TOW	L 57-69	+7.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 126
Feb 16	vsDREX	W 72-69	-2.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsHAMP	W 79-72	-5.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 151
Feb 26	@MONM	L 69-82	+3.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 28	@HOF	L 58-67	+11.5	W +2.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 3	vsTOW	L 57-69	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsCAM	L 89-96	+2.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 185

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 71-60

+7.5

YALE

L 79-86

+13.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+6.5

PAC

L 58-86

−23.5

BCU

W 61-54

+11.5

LMU

W 71-68

+13.5

DUQ

L 75-84

+0.5

COLU

W 77-73

+8.5

CMU

W 78-55

+15.5

UALB

L 55-71

−26.5

MRST

L 51-70

−12.5

HAMP

L 59-62

−0.5

W&M

L 57-76

−7.5

NCAT

W 81-80

−3.5

DREX

L 37-56

−13.5

UNCW

L 71-75

+2.5

HOF

W 76-71

+11.5

COFC

W 112-106

+10.5

W 95-80

+18.5

CAM

W 81-69

+16.5

ELON

W 72-68

+8.5

MONM

L 75-76

−2.5

W 69-55

+10.5

TOW

L 57-69

−4.5

DREX

W 72-69

+0.5

HAMP

W 79-72

+1.5

MONM

L 69-82

−9.5

HOF

L 58-67

+2.5

TOW

L 57-69

−10.5

CAM

L 89-96

−4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 71-60

−0.5

YALE

L 79-86

+14.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+13.5

PAC

L 58-86

−1.5

BCU

W 61-54

−30.5

LMU

W 71-68

+0.5

DUQ

L 75-84

+8.5

COLU

W 77-73

+3.5

CMU

W 78-55

−12.5

UALB

L 55-71

−20.5

MRST

L 51-70

−16.5

HAMP

L 59-62

−19.5

W&M

L 57-76

−26.5

NCAT

W 81-80

+19.5

DREX

L 37-56

−39.5

UNCW

L 71-75

+12.5

HOF

W 76-71

+10.5

COFC

W 112-106

+75.5

W 95-80

+26.5

CAM

W 81-69

−2.5

ELON

W 72-68

−8.5

MONM

L 75-76

+13.5

W 69-55

−29.5

TOW

L 57-69

−9.5

DREX

W 72-69

+5.5

HAMP

W 79-72

+15.5

MONM

L 69-82

+5.5

HOF

L 58-67

−15.5

TOW

L 57-69

−11.5

CAM

L 89-96

+36.5

over 15under 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Delaware 1, Stony Brook 1, even 3

DelawareBetterStony Brook

G D. Dinkins TR11.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 21

No call

G C. O'Connor8.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Not ranked

G A. Kazanecki5 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5

STBKBig

G E. Simmon6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 46

G J. Brown12 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

F B. Ndjonga TR13.8 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 45

G M. Ellison3.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Valentiny4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 18

F K. Nzeh TR11.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 44

DELSmall

F Q. Gorman3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25

DelawareBetterStony Brook

DEL offense237th of 366 · -7.3

STBKSmall

STBK defense164th of 366 · -3.7

DEL defense187th of 366 · -4.3

Even

STBK offense235th of 366 · -7.2

Backcourt-9.1 · 4 players

STBKBig

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player

DELSmall

Frontcourt-3.4 · 3 players

Bench-2.8 · 5 players

STBKSmall

Bench-0.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEL betterSTBK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Delaware

Guards

D. Dinkins34 min · TRA. Kazanecki29 minJ. Brown23 minM. Ellison20 minC. Bailey18 min · TRD. Harris-Smith17 min · TR

Forwards

K. Nzeh29 min · TRE. Alvin20 min · TRJ. Taylor16 minF. EgbunaNew

Centers

S. Solano4 min · TR

Stony Brook

Guards

C. O'Connor27 minE. Simmon17 minJ. Butler13 minM. Ugusuk11 min · TRK. Price7 min · TRL. Dagostino2 min

Forwards

B. Ndjonga33 min · TRT. Valentiny19 minQ. Gorman19 minJ. Daughtry16 min · TRE. Vatan3 min · TR

Centers

L. Van ElswykNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEL67.9 #316

STBK70.7 #270

Points per possession

DEL1.04 #269

STBK1.05 #254

Pace (possessions)

DEL65.3 #337

STBK67.3 #269

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEL53.3 #89

STBK50.2 #227

3-point %

DEL36.8 #31

STBK34.8 #128

3-point attempt rate

DEL46.2 #44

STBK45.8 #50

Free throw rate

DEL30.6 #291

STBK28.4 #339

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEL18.3 #287

STBK16.7 #181

Offensive rebound rate

DEL20.8 #362

STBK28.0 #267

Assists per game

DEL12.2 #271

STBK12.9 #216

Defense

Points allowed

DEL74.1 #156

STBK72.5 #118

Points allowed per possession

DEL1.13 #298

STBK1.08 #168

Opponent effective FG%

DEL51.5 #185

STBK50.7 #138

Opponent 3-point %

DEL35.1 #255

STBK35.7 #291

Turnovers forced

DEL14.0 #334

STBK17.2 #135

Defensive rebound rate

DEL68.9 #206

STBK67.7 #275

Steals per game

DEL5.7 #273

STBK6.3 #201

Blocks per game

DEL3.0 #219

STBK3.6 #122

DEL		STBK
Scoring
67.9 #316	Points per game	70.7 #270
1.04 #269	Points per possession	1.05 #254
65.3 #337	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #269
Shooting
53.3 #89	Effective FG%	50.2 #227
36.8 #31	3-point %	34.8 #128
46.2 #44	3-point attempt rate	45.8 #50
30.6 #291	Free throw rate	28.4 #339
Possessions
18.3 #287	Turnover rate	16.7 #181
20.8 #362	Offensive rebound rate	28.0 #267
12.2 #271	Assists per game	12.9 #216
Defense
74.1 #156	Points allowed	72.5 #118
1.13 #298	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #168
51.5 #185	Opponent effective FG%	50.7 #138
35.1 #255	Opponent 3-point %	35.7 #291
14.0 #334	Turnovers forced	17.2 #135
68.9 #206	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #275
5.7 #273	Steals per game	6.3 #201
3.0 #219	Blocks per game	3.6 #122

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Delaware

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana Tech38–81
Wvs Sam Houston83–80
L@ Kennesaw St82–90
L@ Jax State70–80
L@ MTSU66–78

A week or more of rest.

Stony Brook

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Campbell89–96
Lvs Towson57–69
L@ Hofstra58–67
L@ Monmouth69–82
Wvs Hampton79–72

A week or more of rest.

Delaware Blue Hens at Stony Brook Seawolves

What could decide it: DEL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Delaware

Stony Brook

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Delaware

Stony Brook