Drexel Dragons at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 4:00 PM ETKnott Arena · at Mount St Marys

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Drexel and Mount St Marys
DREX	This season	MSM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSM 69–68 · win probability MSM 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 136.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DREX 3, MSM 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DREXBig

MSM offense vs DREX defense

Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 175th, on the model’s ratings

MSMBig

DREX offense vs MSM defense

Offense 323rd of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings

DREXBig

Three-pointers

DREX hits 35.5% and allows 30.3%; MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 40.0% and 42.6% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

DREX has played the 199th-hardest schedule, MSM the 291st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MSMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DREX 31.2%, MSM 32.3%. Defensive: DREX 69.0%, MSM 70.9%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: DREX plays 65.2 a game (341st fastest), MSM 68.0 (231st). Faster games mean more points

DREXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DREX 19.1%, MSM 22.4%. Forced: DREX 16.4%, MSM 15.3%

MSMSmall

Home court

MSM at home. This season: MSM 0-0 at home, DREX 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DREX 24%, MSM 42%. Transfers in: DREX 2, MSM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DREX 31.6, MSM 33.3. Allowed: DREX 35.4, MSM 37.3

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DREX 50.6 and allows 47.1; MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSM -1.4	—
Total	—	136.4	—
Projected score	—	DREX 67.5 · MSM 68.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSM -0.7	—
1H total	63.9	—
1H projected score	DREX 31.6 · MSM 32.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DREX WWLWL	19-13	59%	7-7	—
MSM WWLWL	18-13	58%	7-5	—

Venue/role: DREX away; MSM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DREX UUUOU	14-18	44%	16-16
MSM OUUUU	10-21	32%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DREX	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
MSM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Drexel

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ ODU	W75–71WO
Dec 13	@ NJIT	W75–43WU
Dec 15	@ PITT	No recent meeting

Mount St Marys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 4	@ NIA	W76–63WO
Dec 6	@ CAN	W68–47WU
Dec 10	@ COPP	W74–60LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DREX 1–0 MSMDREX leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DREX 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 19, 2025-26	MSM 67 @ DREX 75	DREX -4.5	DREX W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drexel

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L L L W L W W L L L W W L L L W W W L W W W L W L L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L L W L W L W L L W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O U U U O U O O O O O U U O U U U U O U U U O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@JOES	L 65-76	+9.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 11	@COLG	L 83-90	+3.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSYR	L 50-80	+11.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsNJIT	W 75-43	-13.5	W +18.5	138.5	U 118
Nov 21	vsPENN	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 23	vsODU	W 75-71	-3.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 25	@MORG	W 71-66	-5.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 137
Dec 3	@AMER	L 73-75	+4.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	@LAS	L 64-69	-1.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 133
Dec 16	vsHOW	L 66-74	-6.5	L −14.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsMSM	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 21	vsME	W 74-56	-10.5	W +7.5	129.5	O 130
Dec 29	@COFC	L 63-72	+9.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 135
Dec 31	@UNCW	L 53-65	+12.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHOF	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	131.5	O 137
Jan 8	vsSTBK	W 56-37	-5.5	W +13.5	132.5	U 93
Jan 10	vsW&M	W 64-58	+3.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 122
Jan 15	@MONM	W 73-51	+5.5	W +27.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 19	@TOW	L 58-59	+7.5	W +6.5	124.5	U 117
Jan 24	vsNE	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 29	vsHAMP	W 58-51	-2.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 109
Jan 31	vsNCAT	W 61-60	-7.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 5	@CAM	L 60-81	+4.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 7	@ELON	W 82-77	+4.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 159
Feb 12	vsMONM	L 73-93	-1.5	L −21.5	133.5	O 166
Feb 16	@STBK	L 69-72	+2.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 19	@NE	W 70-61	+1.5	W +10.5	143.5	U 131
Feb 22	vsTOW	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 130
Feb 26	vsCAM	W 65-60	-1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 125
Mar 3	@HOF	L 51-62	+8.5	L −2.5	133.5	U 113
Mar 7	vsNE	W 84-77	-4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 161
Mar 8	vsMONM	L 57-65	+3.5	L −4.5	136.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

−1.5

COLG

L 83-90

−3.5

SYR

L 50-80

−18.5

NJIT

W 75-43

+18.5

PENN

L 68-84

−20.5

ODU

W 75-71

+0.5

MORG

W 71-66

−0.5

AMER

L 73-75

+2.5

LAS

L 64-69

−6.5

HOW

L 66-74

−14.5

MSM

W 75-67

+3.5

W 74-56

+7.5

COFC

L 63-72

+0.5

UNCW

L 53-65

+0.5

HOF

L 67-70

+1.5

STBK

W 56-37

+13.5

W&M

W 64-58

+9.5

MONM

W 73-51

+27.5

TOW

L 58-59

+6.5

W 83-78

+0.5

HAMP

W 58-51

+4.5

NCAT

W 61-60

−6.5

CAM

L 60-81

−16.5

ELON

W 82-77

+9.5

MONM

L 73-93

−21.5

STBK

L 69-72

−0.5

W 70-61

+10.5

TOW

W 68-62

+8.5

CAM

W 65-60

+3.5

HOF

L 51-62

−2.5

W 84-77

+2.5

MONM

L 57-65

−4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

+1.5

COLG

L 83-90

+29.5

SYR

L 50-80

−13.5

NJIT

W 75-43

−20.5

PENN

L 68-84

−0.5

ODU

W 75-71

+3.5

MORG

W 71-66

−6.5

AMER

L 73-75

+10.5

LAS

L 64-69

+3.5

HOW

L 66-74

+1.5

MSM

W 75-67

+4.5

W 74-56

+0.5

COFC

L 63-72

−7.5

UNCW

L 53-65

−19.5

HOF

L 67-70

+5.5

STBK

W 56-37

−39.5

W&M

W 64-58

−28.5

MONM

W 73-51

−3.5

TOW

L 58-59

−7.5

W 83-78

+21.5

HAMP

W 58-51

−18.5

NCAT

W 61-60

−17.5

CAM

L 60-81

−0.5

ELON

W 82-77

+22.5

MONM

L 73-93

+32.5

STBK

L 69-72

+5.5

W 70-61

−12.5

TOW

W 68-62

−0.5

CAM

W 65-60

−18.5

HOF

L 51-62

−20.5

W 84-77

+22.5

MONM

L 57-65

−14.5

over 14under 18avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mount St Marys

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-21

32% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W L W W W L L W L W W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-2132%

U U U U O U O O O U O O U U U U U O U U U U U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 25	@OSU	L 60-113	+30.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 29	vsHOW	W 79-75	-2.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 3	vsSHU	L 80-87	+1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 167
Dec 5	@MRST	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 120
Dec 13	@L-MD	W 81-73	-2.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 19	@DREX	L 67-75	+4.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 29	vsIONA	W 66-59	+2.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 125
Jan 2	@MRMK	L 65-75	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	@QUIN	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 9	vsSPU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 135
Jan 11	vsSIE	L 50-67	+2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 17	@CAN	W 78-68	-3.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 19	@NIA	W 68-58	-3.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 126
Jan 22	vsQUIN	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 24	vsRID	W 71-61	-9.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@SPU	L 58-66	+5.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 124
Feb 1	vsMAN	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	vsMRMK	L 70-87	+2.5	L −14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@IONA	W 83-76	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 159
Feb 13	@RID	W 65-55	-5.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 20	vsNIA	W 76-63	-7.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 139
Feb 22	vsCAN	W 68-47	-7.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	@SHU	L 69-77	+2.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Mar 1	@FAIR	W 69-47	+4.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 116
Mar 7	vsSIE	L 58-63	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

OSU

L 60-113

−22.5

HOW

W 79-75

+1.5

SHU

L 80-87

−5.5

MRST

L 56-64

+0.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+5.5

DREX

L 67-75

−3.5

IONA

W 66-59

+9.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−6.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−3.5

SPU

W 70-65

+6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−14.5

CAN

W 78-68

+6.5

NIA

W 68-58

+6.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−10.5

RID

W 71-61

+0.5

SPU

L 58-66

−2.5

MAN

W 72-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 70-87

−14.5

IONA

W 83-76

+10.5

RID

W 65-55

+4.5

NIA

W 76-63

+5.5

CAN

W 68-47

+13.5

SHU

L 69-77

−5.5

FAIR

W 69-47

+26.5

SIE

L 58-63

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

OSU

L 60-113

+21.5

HOW

W 79-75

+7.5

SHU

L 80-87

+14.5

MRST

L 56-64

−16.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+2.5

DREX

L 67-75

+4.5

IONA

W 66-59

−28.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−1.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−1.5

SPU

W 70-65

−6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−22.5

CAN

W 78-68

+10.5

NIA

W 68-58

−5.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−9.5

RID

W 71-61

−7.5

SPU

L 58-66

−14.5

MAN

W 72-65

−10.5

MRMK

L 70-87

+22.5

IONA

W 83-76

+17.5

RID

W 65-55

−17.5

NIA

W 76-63

+8.5

CAN

W 68-47

−22.5

SHU

L 69-77

−4.5

FAIR

W 69-47

−29.5

SIE

L 58-63

−14.5

over 10under 21avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Drexel has the better starters

Position by position: Drexel 2, Mount St Marys 1, even 2

DrexelBetterMount St Marys

G J. Reed7.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 44

Even

G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55

G A. Abram TR3.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 80

DREXSmall

G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49

G D. Tingler3.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 59

DREXBig

G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2

F P. Pagonis TR4.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 6

Even

G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13

F M. de LaPorterie2.9 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 12

MSMSmall

F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43

DrexelBetterMount St Marys

DREX offense323rd of 366 · -10.5

MSMSmall

MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8

DREX defense175th of 366 · -3.9

DREXBig

MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

DREXBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-3.5 · 2 players

MSMBig

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

DREXSmall

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestDREX betterMSM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Drexel

Guards

J. Reed19 minA. Abram11 min · TRD. Tingler10 minM. Davis2 minL. PittmanNewM. HippsNew

Forwards

P. Pagonis18 min · TRM. de LaPorterie13 minR. Akuta5 minC. EdomwonyinNewD. SimonovicNew

Mount St Marys

Guards

A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR

Forwards

W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DREX67.3 #328

MSM67.9 #315

Points per possession

DREX1.03 #282

MSM1.00 #327

Pace (possessions)

DREX65.2 #341

MSM68.0 #231

Shooting

Effective FG%

DREX50.6 #204

MSM50.6 #208

3-point %

DREX35.5 #90

MSM32.7 #244

3-point attempt rate

DREX40.0 #171

MSM42.6 #125

Free throw rate

DREX31.6 #265

MSM33.3 #230

Possessions

Turnover rate

DREX19.1 #322

MSM22.4 #364

Offensive rebound rate

DREX31.2 #156

MSM32.3 #115

Assists per game

DREX12.8 #226

MSM13.2 #196

Defense

Points allowed

DREX67.6 #26

MSM71.0 #74

Points allowed per possession

DREX1.04 #64

MSM1.05 #84

Opponent effective FG%

DREX47.1 #22

MSM47.2 #23

Opponent 3-point %

DREX30.3 #15

MSM32.3 #81

Turnovers forced

DREX16.4 #195

MSM15.3 #262

Defensive rebound rate

DREX69.0 #202

MSM70.9 #114

Steals per game

DREX5.8 #254

MSM5.8 #261

Blocks per game

DREX3.5 #144

MSM2.9 #248

DREX		MSM
Scoring
67.3 #328	Points per game	67.9 #315
1.03 #282	Points per possession	1.00 #327
65.2 #341	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #231
Shooting
50.6 #204	Effective FG%	50.6 #208
35.5 #90	3-point %	32.7 #244
40.0 #171	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #125
31.6 #265	Free throw rate	33.3 #230
Possessions
19.1 #322	Turnover rate	22.4 #364
31.2 #156	Offensive rebound rate	32.3 #115
12.8 #226	Assists per game	13.2 #196
Defense
67.6 #26	Points allowed	71.0 #74
1.04 #64	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #84
47.1 #22	Opponent effective FG%	47.2 #23
30.3 #15	Opponent 3-point %	32.3 #81
16.4 #195	Turnovers forced	15.3 #262
69.0 #202	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #114
5.8 #254	Steals per game	5.8 #261
3.5 #144	Blocks per game	2.9 #248

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drexel

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Monmouth57–65
Wvs Northeastern84–77
L@ Hofstra51–62
Wvs Campbell65–60
Wvs Towson68–62

A week or more of rest.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena58–63
W@ Fairfield69–47
L@ Sacred Heart69–77
Wvs Canisius68–47
Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Drexel Dragons at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Drexel

Mount St Marys

Drexel has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Drexel

Mount St Marys