McNeese Cowboys at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 4:00 PM ETCajundome · at Louisiana

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: McNeese and Louisiana
MCN	This season	UL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MCN 73–67 · win probability MCN 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MCN has more of the edges

MCN 5, UL 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MCNBig

UL offense vs MCN defense

Offense 292nd of 366 against a defense 117th, on the model’s ratings

MCNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MCN 50.7 and allows 49.3; UL 47.1 and allows 52.6

MCNBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MCN 37.4, UL 28.7. Allowed: MCN 42.0, UL 45.8

MCNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MCN 14.2%, UL 16.8%. Forced: MCN 24.4%, UL 18.3%

MCNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MCN 35.1%, UL 28.4%. Defensive: MCN 65.1%, UL 67.7%

ULSmall

Home court

UL at home. This season: UL 0-0 at home, MCN 0-0 away

ULSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MCN 33%, UL 59%. Transfers in: MCN 5, UL 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

MCN hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%; UL hits 33.6% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 35.2% and 40.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: MCN plays 67.1 a game (276th fastest), UL 64.1 (359th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MCN has played the 258th-hardest schedule, UL the 226th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

MCN offense vs UL defense

Offense 153rd of 366 against a defense 157th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MCN -6.1	—
Total	—	139.8	—
Projected score	—	MCN 72.9 · UL 66.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MCN -3.8	—
1H total	65.4	—
1H projected score	MCN 34.6 · UL 30.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MCN LWLWW	16-16	50%	4-10	—
UL WLLWL	15-18	45%	8-7	—

Venue/role: MCN away; UL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MCN UUOOU	15-17	47%	26-6
UL UOUOO	15-18	45%	11-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MCN	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

McNeese

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs HCU	W73–69LO
Dec 7	vs UIW	W81–64WU
Dec 10	vs USM	W67–48WU

Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs HCU	No recent meeting
Dec 6	@ TULN	L62–66WU
Dec 12	@ ORU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MCN 3–2 ULMCN leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MCN has won the last 3 meetings · MCN 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2025-26	UL 62 @ MCN 88	MCN -15.5	MCN W
Dec 22, 2024-25	MCN 64 @ UL 56	UL +11.5	UL W
Dec 17, 2023-24	UL 72 @ MCN 74	MCN -6.5	UL W
Dec 15, 2022-23	UL 78 @ MCN 70	MCN +12.5	MCN W
Dec 8, 2021-22	MCN 68 @ UL 83	UL -14	UL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

McNeese

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L W W W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W L L L W L W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O U U U O U O O O O U U O O U U O U U U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SCU	L 67-79	+6.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 14	vsUL	W 88-62	-15.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 23	vsGW	W 92-86	+5.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMUR	W 73-60	-2.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsMTSU	W 72-62	-9.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	@UIW	L 67-71	-10.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 138
Dec 5	vsNWST	W 92-54	-19.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 146
Dec 9	@URI	W 66-64	-1.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 12	vsETAM	W 102-66	-20.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 168
Dec 15	@HCU	W 78-68	-14.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 146
Dec 29	@MICH	L 71-112	+24.5	L −16.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 2	vsLAM	W 82-70	-16.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 5	vsSFA	W 66-64	-10.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsSELA	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNICH	W 94-68	-15.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 17	@RGV	L 76-79	-9.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 19	@AMCC	W 69-53	-9.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 122
Jan 24	vsNOLA	W 82-63	-18.5	W +0.5	156.5	U 145
Jan 27	@SELA	W 76-66	-12.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@LAM	W 64-63	-10.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 2	@SFA	L 60-67	-2.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsUIW	W 81-64	-16.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 9	vsHCU	W 73-69	-21.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 142
Feb 14	@ETAM	W 97-54	-13.5	W +29.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 16	@NWST	W 75-64	-14.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 139
Feb 21	vsAMCC	W 70-54	-14.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 23	vsRGV	W 75-68	-11.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 143
Feb 28	@NOLA	W 66-63	-10.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 129
Mar 2	@NICH	W 75-65	-9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsRGV	W 84-80	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 164
Mar 11	vsSFA	W 76-59	-3.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 19	vsVAN	L 68-78	+12.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+10.5

W 92-86

+11.5

MUR

W 73-60

+10.5

MTSU

W 72-62

+0.5

UIW

L 67-71

−14.5

NWST

W 92-54

+18.5

URI

W 66-64

+0.5

ETAM

W 102-66

+15.5

HCU

W 78-68

−4.5

MICH

L 71-112

−16.5

LAM

W 82-70

−4.5

SFA

W 66-64

−8.5

SELA

W 73-61

−4.5

NICH

W 94-68

+10.5

RGV

L 76-79

−12.5

AMCC

W 69-53

+6.5

NOLA

W 82-63

+0.5

SELA

W 76-66

−2.5

LAM

W 64-63

−9.5

SFA

L 60-67

−9.5

UIW

W 81-64

+0.5

HCU

W 73-69

−17.5

ETAM

W 97-54

+29.5

NWST

W 75-64

−3.5

AMCC

W 70-54

+1.5

RGV

W 75-68

−4.5

NOLA

W 66-63

−7.5

NICH

W 75-65

+0.5

RGV

W 84-80

−4.5

SFA

W 76-59

+13.5

VAN

L 68-78

+2.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+15.5

W 92-86

+20.5

MUR

W 73-60

−25.5

MTSU

W 72-62

−13.5

UIW

L 67-71

−7.5

NWST

W 92-54

+6.5

URI

W 66-64

−16.5

ETAM

W 102-66

+25.5

HCU

W 78-68

+8.5

MICH

L 71-112

+21.5

LAM

W 82-70

+6.5

SFA

W 66-64

−14.5

SELA

W 73-61

−4.5

NICH

W 94-68

+15.5

RGV

L 76-79

+8.5

AMCC

W 69-53

−18.5

NOLA

W 82-63

−11.5

SELA

W 76-66

+2.5

LAM

W 64-63

−17.5

SFA

L 60-67

−14.5

UIW

W 81-64

−0.5

HCU

W 73-69

+4.5

ETAM

W 97-54

+8.5

NWST

W 75-64

+0.5

AMCC

W 70-54

−15.5

RGV

W 75-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 66-63

−21.5

NICH

W 75-65

−5.5

RGV

W 84-80

+23.5

SFA

W 76-59

+0.5

VAN

L 68-78

−2.5

over 15under 17avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisiana

33 games played

Straight up

11-22

33% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2233%

L W L L L L L L L L L L W W L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

L W W L L L L L W W L W W W L L L L W W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1845%

U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U O O O U U O O U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 24	@UCD	L 56-77	+9.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsJKST	L 45-51	-5.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 3	@LAM	L 55-65	+10.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsUNCW	L 63-70	+12.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@LT	L 44-65	+9.5	L −11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 18	@USM	L 54-62	+11.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ULM	W 76-62	-1.5	W +12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	vsNORF	W 63-54	-3.5	W +5.5	126.5	U 117
Dec 31	vsUSA	L 58-63	+3.5	L −1.5	127.5	U 121
Jan 3	vsUSM	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsULM	W 85-79	-7.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsTROY	L 70-90	+9.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 14	@TXST	L 54-59	+8.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 113
Jan 17	@USA	W 59-56	+9.5	W +12.5	129.5	U 115
Jan 22	@APP	L 58-72	+9.5	L −4.5	124.5	O 130
Jan 29	vsGAST	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsGASO	W 69-60	+2.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	@JMU	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsCMU	W 85-80	-2.5	W +2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 12	vsCCU	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 16	@ODU	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 19	vsARST	L 62-79	+8.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 141
Feb 21	vsTXST	W 67-54	+3.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 24	@TROY	L 59-78	+11.5	L −7.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 27	@ARST	L 58-81	+13.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsGAST	W 84-75	+1.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 159
Mar 4	vsJMU	L 72-87	+6.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−11.5

JKST

L 45-51

−11.5

LAM

L 55-65

+0.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+5.5

L 44-65

−11.5

USM

L 54-62

+3.5

ULM

W 76-62

+12.5

NORF

W 63-54

+5.5

USA

L 58-63

−1.5

USM

L 67-74

−3.5

ULM

W 85-79

−1.5

TROY

L 70-90

−10.5

TXST

L 54-59

+3.5

USA

W 59-56

+12.5

APP

L 58-72

−4.5

GAST

W 82-72

+11.5

GASO

W 69-60

+11.5

JMU

W 64-61

+12.5

CMU

W 85-80

+2.5

CCU

L 65-69

−2.5

ODU

L 72-83

−4.5

ARST

L 62-79

−8.5

TXST

W 67-54

+16.5

TROY

L 59-78

−7.5

ARST

L 58-81

−9.5

GAST

W 84-75

+10.5

JMU

L 72-87

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−3.5

JKST

L 45-51

−40.5

LAM

L 55-65

−9.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+2.5

L 44-65

−17.5

USM

L 54-62

−16.5

ULM

W 76-62

+1.5

NORF

W 63-54

−9.5

USA

L 58-63

−6.5

USM

L 67-74

+11.5

ULM

W 85-79

+24.5

TROY

L 70-90

+23.5

TXST

L 54-59

−20.5

USA

W 59-56

−14.5

APP

L 58-72

+5.5

GAST

W 82-72

+24.5

GASO

W 69-60

−15.5

JMU

W 64-61

−7.5

CMU

W 85-80

+30.5

CCU

L 65-69

+1.5

ODU

L 72-83

+19.5

ARST

L 62-79

−3.5

TXST

W 67-54

−13.5

TROY

L 59-78

+2.5

ARST

L 58-81

−7.5

GAST

W 84-75

+24.5

JMU

L 72-87

+24.5

over 15under 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

McNeese has the better starters

Position by position: McNeese 3, Louisiana 0, even 2

McNeeseBetterLouisiana

G L. Johnson16.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98

MCNBig

G D. Lavergne9.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 40

G C. Cherenfant3.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38

MCNBig

G M. Cooper5.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.5 ast Score 1

G D. Warren TR1.2 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Middleton TR12.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 3 ast Score 49

F J. Colbert5.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 29

No call

G J. Keller17 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

F C. Chest TR2.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 71

MCNBig

F J. Harris TR9.3 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34

McNeeseBetterLouisiana

MCN offense153rd of 366 · -4.7

Even

UL defense157th of 366 · -3.4

MCN defense117th of 366 · -1.6

MCNBig

UL offense292nd of 366 · -9.0

Backcourt+3.2 · 3 players

MCNBig

Backcourt-6.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player

Bench-0.3 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.5 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestMCN betterUL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

McNeese

Guards

L. Johnson26 minC. Cherenfant16 minD. Warren8 min · TRE. Moore5 min · TRJ. Rembert4 minJ. Dean-Vines3 min · TR

Forwards

J. Colbert20 minC. Chest13 min · TRA. Maluk7 min · TRC. NituNewM. MadisonNewA. MazouNew

Louisiana

Guards

D. Lavergne30 minM. Cooper30 minT. Middleton30 min · TRJ. Keller30 minL. Myers2 minD. WareNew

Forwards

J. Harris27 min · TRD. Pounds18 min · TRT. Jones17 minJ. Evans11 minR. OlajuwonNewT. DuncanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MCN76.6 #131

UL63.7 #354

Points per possession

MCN1.14 #69

UL0.99 #333

Pace (possessions)

MCN67.1 #276

UL64.1 #359

Shooting

Effective FG%

MCN50.7 #202

UL47.1 #334

3-point %

MCN31.7 #290

UL33.6 #189

3-point attempt rate

MCN35.2 #269

UL40.5 #160

Free throw rate

MCN37.4 #114

UL28.7 #334

Possessions

Turnover rate

MCN14.2 #28

UL16.8 #185

Offensive rebound rate

MCN35.1 #46

UL28.4 #251

Assists per game

MCN13.1 #205

UL10.3 #354

Defense

Points allowed

MCN67.4 #23

UL70.7 #69

Points allowed per possession

MCN1.00 #27

UL1.10 #227

Opponent effective FG%

MCN49.3 #76

UL52.6 #247

Opponent 3-point %

MCN32.7 #102

UL35.6 #286

Turnovers forced

MCN24.4 #1

UL18.3 #85

Defensive rebound rate

MCN65.1 #338

UL67.7 #272

Steals per game

MCN10.3 #1

UL5.8 #257

Blocks per game

MCN4.4 #42

UL3.5 #141

MCN		UL
Scoring
76.6 #131	Points per game	63.7 #354
1.14 #69	Points per possession	0.99 #333
67.1 #276	Pace (possessions)	64.1 #359
Shooting
50.7 #202	Effective FG%	47.1 #334
31.7 #290	3-point %	33.6 #189
35.2 #269	3-point attempt rate	40.5 #160
37.4 #114	Free throw rate	28.7 #334
Possessions
14.2 #28	Turnover rate	16.8 #185
35.1 #46	Offensive rebound rate	28.4 #251
13.1 #205	Assists per game	10.3 #354
Defense
67.4 #23	Points allowed	70.7 #69
1.00 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #227
49.3 #76	Opponent effective FG%	52.6 #247
32.7 #102	Opponent 3-point %	35.6 #286
24.4 #1	Turnovers forced	18.3 #85
65.1 #338	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #272
10.3 #1	Steals per game	5.8 #257
4.4 #42	Blocks per game	3.5 #141

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

McNeese

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Vanderbilt68–78
Wvs SF Austin76–59
Wvs UT Rio Grande84–80
W@ Nicholls75–65
W@ LSU N Orleans66–63

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana

11-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs James Madison72–87
Wvs Georgia St84–75
L@ Arkansas St58–81
L@ Troy59–78
Wvs Texas St67–54

A week or more of rest.

McNeese Cowboys at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

What could decide it: MCN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

McNeese

Louisiana

McNeese has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

McNeese

Louisiana