Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 30, 8:00 PM ETGreat Southern Bank Arena · at Missouri St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lindenwood Lions and Missouri St
LIN	This season	MOST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MOST 76–73 · win probability MOST 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MOST has more of the edges

LIN 0, MOST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

LIN has played the 357th-hardest schedule, MOST the 180th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: LIN plays 73.0 a game (18th fastest), MOST 67.4 (261st). Faster games mean more points

MOSTSmall

Home court

MOST at home. This season: MOST 0-0 at home, LIN 0-0 away

MOSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIN 0%, MOST 25%. Transfers in: LIN 0, MOST 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

LIN offense vs MOST defense

Offense 250th of 366 against a defense 219th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIN 33.3%, MOST 32.0%. Defensive: LIN 68.3%, MOST 68.0%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIN 18.7%, MOST 16.7%. Forced: LIN 18.4%, MOST 16.9%

Even

MOST offense vs LIN defense

Offense 275th of 366 against a defense 261st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIN 48.0 and allows 49.1; MOST 51.1 and allows 52.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIN 38.6, MOST 43.8. Allowed: LIN 37.4, MOST 40.2

Even

Three-pointers

LIN hits 29.4% and allows 32.4%; MOST hits 33.0% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 30.7% and 41.3% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MOST -2.9	—
Total	—	148.2	—
Projected score	—	LIN 72.6 · MOST 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MOST -1.6	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	LIN 33.8 · MOST 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIN LLWWW	13-17	43%	6-10	—
MOST WLWWL	18-13	58%	7-8	—

Venue/role: LIN away; MOST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIN UUOUU	17-13	57%	15-15
MOST OUUOO	19-12	61%	13-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MOST	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lindenwood Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs OMA	W72–70WU
Dec 12	vs NIU	W99–64WO

Missouri St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ ARST	L85–86LO
Dec 6	vs TLSA	L74–98LO
Dec 12	@ TAR	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LIN 0–2 MOSTMOST leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MOST has won the last 2 meetings · LIN 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 23, 2025-26	LIN 65 @ MOST 70	MOST -3.5	MOST W
Dec 19, 2023-24	LIN 57 @ MOST 79	MOST -17.5	MOST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lindenwood Lions

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L L W L L W W W W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L L W L W W W L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O U U U O O O U U O U O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@TTU	L 60-98	+29.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 10	@SLU	L 66-109	+24.5	L −18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 14	vsCHSO	W 83-77	-2.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 16	@AAMU	L 65-74	+3.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 20	@IU	L 53-73	+32.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsKC	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 147
Dec 2	@NIU	W 99-64	+3.5	W +38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@EIU	W 82-74	-8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 18	vsWIU	W 92-76	-12.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 23	@MOST	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 1	vsMORE	W 77-64	-6.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUSI	W 83-80	-9.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 6	@SIUE	L 62-66	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsLR	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	@SEMO	W 88-76	+6.5	W +18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	@UTM	L 55-69	+2.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 124
Jan 22	vsTNTC	W 89-68	-8.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsTNST	L 86-96	-4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	@USI	W 73-60	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@MORE	W 79-78	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 3	vsSIUE	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LR	W 79-74	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 12	vsUTM	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsSEMO	L 61-73	-1.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 19	@TNST	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	@TNTC	L 57-72	-1.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	vsEIU	L 67-71	-7.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@WIU	W 91-69	-11.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 4	vsLR	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsSEMO	L 66-68	+3.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

−8.5

SLU

L 66-109

−18.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+3.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−5.5

L 53-73

+12.5

W 80-67

+8.5

NIU

W 99-64

+38.5

EIU

W 82-74

−0.5

WIU

W 92-76

+3.5

MOST

L 65-70

−1.5

W 77-64

+6.5

USI

W 83-80

−6.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−2.5

L 74-82

−14.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+18.5

UTM

L 55-69

−11.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+12.5

TNST

L 86-96

−14.5

USI

W 73-60

+8.5

W 79-78

−0.5

SIUE

L 72-78

−10.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

−0.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−13.5

TNST

L 80-89

−5.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−16.5

EIU

L 67-71

−11.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

+4.5

SEMO

L 66-68

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

+11.5

SLU

L 66-109

+9.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+4.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−10.5

L 53-73

−29.5

W 80-67

−5.5

NIU

W 99-64

+15.5

EIU

W 82-74

+10.5

WIU

W 92-76

+21.5

MOST

L 65-70

−10.5

W 77-64

−6.5

USI

W 83-80

+15.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−14.5

L 74-82

+6.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+9.5

UTM

L 55-69

−23.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+5.5

TNST

L 86-96

+21.5

USI

W 73-60

−17.5

W 79-78

+8.5

SIUE

L 72-78

+9.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

+3.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−20.5

TNST

L 80-89

+9.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−22.5

EIU

L 67-71

−6.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

−14.5

SEMO

L 66-68

−14.5

over 17under 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Missouri St

31 games played

Straight up

13-18

42% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-12

61% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1842%

L L W L L L W W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L L W L L W L W W W W L W L W W W L W W L L L W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1261%

O U U U O U U U U O O O U O O O U O O O O O O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsARST	L 85-86	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@UTA	L 49-67	+3.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 22	vsRGV	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsLIU	L 61-75	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 136
Dec 6	@TLSA	L 74-98	+7.5	L −16.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 12	@XAV	L 57-75	+18.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 132
Dec 16	vsORU	W 63-62	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 125
Dec 23	vsLIN	W 70-65	-3.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 29	@DEL	W 61-43	-1.5	W +16.5	131.5	U 104
Jan 2	vsUTEP	W 79-55	-3.5	W +20.5	131.5	O 134
Jan 4	vsNMSU	W 89-82	-1.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 171
Jan 7	@KENN	L 80-90	+6.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsFIU	W 79-71	-2.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 150
Jan 14	@WKU	L 72-87	+6.5	L −8.5	148.5	O 159
Jan 17	@MTSU	L 87-90	+5.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 177
Jan 22	@NMSU	W 84-75	+6.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 24	@UTEP	W 62-57	-1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 28	vsSHSU	L 71-80	-1.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsJXST	W 74-67	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 7	@LIB	L 76-79	+9.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsLT	L 78-79	-3.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsDEL	L 67-76	-9.5	L −18.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 18	vsKENN	L 87-91	-1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 178
Feb 21	@FIU	L 67-70	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 137
Feb 26	@LT	L 70-72	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	@SHSU	L 81-86	+6.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 167
Mar 5	vsWKU	W 87-74	+1.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 161
Mar 7	vsMTSU	L 63-75	-2.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 138
Mar 10	vsFIU	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 147
Mar 11	vsLIB	W 77-69	+4.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 13	vsLT	L 66-69	-1.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

−2.5

UTA

L 49-67

−14.5

RGV

W 74-67

+3.5

LIU

L 61-75

−18.5

TLSA

L 74-98

−16.5

XAV

L 57-75

+0.5

ORU

W 63-62

−3.5

LIN

W 70-65

+1.5

DEL

W 61-43

+16.5

UTEP

W 79-55

+20.5

NMSU

W 89-82

+5.5

KENN

L 80-90

−3.5

FIU

W 79-71

+5.5

WKU

L 72-87

−8.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+2.5

NMSU

W 84-75

+15.5

UTEP

W 62-57

+3.5

SHSU

L 71-80

−10.5

JXST

W 74-67

+2.5

LIB

L 76-79

+6.5

L 78-79

−4.5

DEL

L 67-76

−18.5

KENN

L 87-91

−5.5

FIU

L 67-70

+0.5

L 70-72

+0.5

SHSU

L 81-86

+1.5

WKU

W 87-74

+14.5

MTSU

L 63-75

−14.5

FIU

W 75-72

+1.5

LIB

W 77-69

+12.5

L 66-69

−4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

+18.5

UTA

L 49-67

−27.5

RGV

W 74-67

−8.5

LIU

L 61-75

−9.5

TLSA

L 74-98

+29.5

XAV

L 57-75

−19.5

ORU

W 63-62

−21.5

LIN

W 70-65

−10.5

DEL

W 61-43

−27.5

UTEP

W 79-55

+2.5

NMSU

W 89-82

+36.5

KENN

L 80-90

+17.5

FIU

W 79-71

−3.5

WKU

L 72-87

+10.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+39.5

NMSU

W 84-75

+14.5

UTEP

W 62-57

−20.5

SHSU

L 71-80

+2.5

JXST

W 74-67

+5.5

LIB

L 76-79

+14.5

L 78-79

+20.5

DEL

L 67-76

+7.5

KENN

L 87-91

+25.5

FIU

L 67-70

−17.5

L 70-72

+3.5

SHSU

L 81-86

+14.5

WKU

W 87-74

+8.5

MTSU

L 63-75

−7.5

FIU

W 75-72

−5.5

LIB

W 77-69

+3.5

L 66-69

+0.5

over 19under 12avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIN74.4 #183

MOST73.1 #223

Points per possession

LIN1.02 #307

MOST1.09 #169

Pace (possessions)

LIN73.0 #18

MOST67.4 #261

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIN48.0 #313

MOST51.1 #191

3-point %

LIN29.4 #347

MOST33.0 #236

3-point attempt rate

LIN30.7 #346

MOST41.3 #144

Free throw rate

LIN38.6 #88

MOST43.8 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIN18.7 #307

MOST16.7 #180

Offensive rebound rate

LIN33.3 #83

MOST32.0 #124

Assists per game

LIN13.0 #212

MOST13.9 #155

Defense

Points allowed

LIN75.0 #190

MOST74.3 #166

Points allowed per possession

LIN1.03 #52

MOST1.10 #222

Opponent effective FG%

LIN49.1 #72

MOST52.0 #217

Opponent 3-point %

LIN32.4 #84

MOST34.4 #209

Turnovers forced

LIN18.4 #78

MOST16.9 #158

Defensive rebound rate

LIN68.3 #244

MOST68.0 #261

Steals per game

LIN8.4 #24

MOST6.7 #152

Blocks per game

LIN4.4 #46

MOST3.0 #215

LIN		MOST
Scoring
74.4 #183	Points per game	73.1 #223
1.02 #307	Points per possession	1.09 #169
73.0 #18	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #261
Shooting
48.0 #313	Effective FG%	51.1 #191
29.4 #347	3-point %	33.0 #236
30.7 #346	3-point attempt rate	41.3 #144
38.6 #88	Free throw rate	43.8 #12
Possessions
18.7 #307	Turnover rate	16.7 #180
33.3 #83	Offensive rebound rate	32.0 #124
13.0 #212	Assists per game	13.9 #155
Defense
75.0 #190	Points allowed	74.3 #166
1.03 #52	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #222
49.1 #72	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #217
32.4 #84	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #209
18.4 #78	Turnovers forced	16.9 #158
68.3 #244	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #261
8.4 #24	Steals per game	6.7 #152
4.4 #46	Blocks per game	3.0 #215

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lindenwood Lions

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SE Missouri66–68
Wvs Little Rock72–62
W@ W Illinois91–69
Lvs E Illinois67–71
L@ Tennessee Tech57–72

A week or more of rest.

Missouri St

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana Tech66–69
Wvs Liberty77–69
Wvs FIU75–72
Lvs MTSU63–75
Wvs Western KY87–74

A week or more of rest.

Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears

What could decide it: MOST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lindenwood Lions

Missouri St

Matchup stats

Lindenwood Lions

Missouri St