1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 30
  3. MTST @ SDAK
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 30

Montana State Bobcats at South Dakota Coyotes

Sanford Coyote Sports Center · at South Dakota
#162MTSTMontana St
@
#291SDAKSouth Dakota
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MTSTThis seasonSDAK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MTST 79–73 · win probability MTST 70%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MTST has more of the edges

MTST 5, SDAK 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MTSTBig
MTST offense vs SDAK defense
Offense 190th of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings
MTSTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MTST 53.6 and allows 51.6; SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5
SDAKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MTST 30.2, SDAK 45.2. Allowed: MTST 29.6, SDAK 31.0
MTSTBig
Three-pointers
MTST hits 36.1% and allows 34.3%; SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 44.6% and 35.9% of their shots
MTSTBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MTST 89%, SDAK 26%. Transfers in: MTST 2, SDAK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MTST plays 67.9 a game (233rd fastest), SDAK 72.6 (23rd). Faster games mean more points
SDAKSmall
Home court
SDAK at home. This season: SDAK 0-0 at home, MTST 0-0 away
MTSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MTST 14.8%, SDAK 16.5%. Forced: MTST 15.6%, SDAK 15.9%
Even
SDAK offense vs MTST defense
Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 155th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MTST has played the 278th-hardest schedule, SDAK the 305th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MTST 27.0%, SDAK 28.7%. Defensive: MTST 71.8%, SDAK 69.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MTST -5.9—
Total—151.7—
Projected score—MTST 78.8 · SDAK 72.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMTST -3.6—
1H total70.9—
1H projected scoreMTST 37.3 · SDAK 33.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Montana St has the better starters

Position by position: Montana St 4, South Dakota 0, even 1
Montana StBetterSouth Dakota
G J. Miller15.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82
MTSTBig
G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
G C. Holden8.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34
G J. Davis9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
MTSTSmall
G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
G S. Amunrud7.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
MTSTSmall
G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19
F C. King12.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
MTSTBig
F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5
Montana StBetterSouth Dakota
MTST offense190th of 366 · -5.8
MTSTBig
SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1
MTST defense155th of 366 · -3.4
Even
SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-0.8 · 4 players
MTSTBig
Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 1 player
MTSTSmall
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
SDAKSmall
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestMTST betterSDAK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana St
Guards
J. Miller36 minC. Holden28 minJ. Davis25 minS. Amunrud21 minH. Keene11 minD. Slater7 min · TR
Forwards
C. King29 minJ. Steppe15 minW. Mbatch11 minL. Praytor4 min · TRC. Rutherfurd1 minJ. StewardNew
South Dakota
Guards
J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew
Forwards
E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew
Centers
S. van Bussel5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MTSTSDAK
Scoring
75.7 #151Points per game78.0 #94
1.12 #107Points per possession1.07 #207
67.9 #233Pace (possessions)72.6 #23
Shooting
53.6 #80Effective FG%49.9 #239
36.1 #523-point %32.4 #264
44.6 #763-point attempt rate35.9 #251
30.2 #303Free throw rate45.2 #4
Possessions
14.8 #53Turnover rate16.5 #168
27.0 #292Offensive rebound rate28.7 #242
10.6 #347Assists per game11.9 #295
Defense
73.5 #144Points allowed81.7 #337
1.08 #158Points allowed per possession1.13 #284
51.6 #193Opponent effective FG%54.5 #318
34.3 #198Opponent 3-point %34.5 #219
15.6 #242Turnovers forced15.9 #225
71.8 #75Defensive rebound rate69.7 #172
6.5 #171Steals per game6.1 #223
2.8 #263Blocks per game2.6 #293
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana St

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho74–78
  • W@ N Arizona76–65
  • Wvs Sacramento St82–61
  • Wvs Portland St84–69
  • L@ Idaho St76–91

A week or more of rest.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Omaha62–76
  • Wvs S Dakota St75–70
  • Wvs Omaha89–72
  • L@ Oral Roberts62–67
  • L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.