1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 3
  3. MOST @ ARST
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 3

Missouri State Bears at Arkansas State Red Wolves

First National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St
#251MOSTMissouri St
@
#171ARSTArkansas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MOSTThis seasonARST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARST 80–73 · win probability ARST 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARST has more of the edges

MOST 1, ARST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MOST 32.0%, ARST 38.2%. Defensive: MOST 68.0%, ARST 73.0%
MOSTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MOST 16.7%, ARST 19.8%. Forced: MOST 16.9%, ARST 14.9%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MOST plays 67.4 a game (261st fastest), ARST 73.4 (16th). Faster games mean more points
ARSTSmall
ARST offense vs MOST defense
Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 219th, on the model’s ratings
ARSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MOST 51.1 and allows 52.0; ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3
ARSTSmall
Home court
ARST at home. This season: ARST 0-0 at home, MOST 0-0 away
ARSTSmall
Three-pointers
MOST hits 33.0% and allows 34.4%; ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 41.3% and 44.9% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
MOST has played the 180th-hardest schedule, ARST the 221st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MOST 25%, ARST 6%. Transfers in: MOST 0, ARST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
MOST offense vs ARST defense
Offense 275th of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MOST 43.8, ARST 39.1. Allowed: MOST 40.2, ARST 37.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARST -6.4—
Total—152.8—
Projected score—MOST 73.2 · ARST 79.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARST -3.7—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreMOST 33.9 · ARST 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas St has the better starters

Position by position: Missouri St 0, Arkansas St 1, even 4
Missouri StBetterArkansas St
G T. Williams9.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 34
ARSTBig
G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83
G M. Cunningham3.1 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43
Even
G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45
F C. Boone1.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 19
Even
G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33
F M. Gray NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36
F C. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
Missouri StBetterArkansas St
MOST offense275th of 366 · -8.4
Even
ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6
MOST defense219th of 366 · -5.7
ARSTSmall
ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2
Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players
ARSTSmall
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestMOST betterARST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Missouri St
Guards
T. Williams31 minM. Cunningham12 minK. StubblefieldNewJ. BlairNewD. RoweNew
Forwards
C. Boone8 minM. GrayNewC. ThompsonNewN. RueyNewL. RolleNewI. MedinaNew
Centers
A. AcimovicNew
Arkansas St
Guards
J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew
Forwards
A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MOSTARST
Scoring
73.1 #223Points per game81.8 #33
1.09 #169Points per possession1.11 #117
67.4 #261Pace (possessions)73.4 #16
Shooting
51.1 #191Effective FG%51.7 #164
33.0 #2363-point %32.9 #240
41.3 #1443-point attempt rate44.9 #70
43.8 #12Free throw rate39.1 #78
Possessions
16.7 #180Turnover rate19.8 #344
32.0 #124Offensive rebound rate38.2 #6
13.9 #155Assists per game15.3 #77
Defense
74.3 #166Points allowed78.0 #268
1.10 #222Points allowed per possession1.07 #121
52.0 #217Opponent effective FG%50.3 #117
34.4 #209Opponent 3-point %32.9 #115
16.9 #158Turnovers forced14.9 #298
68.0 #261Defensive rebound rate73.0 #36
6.7 #152Steals per game7.2 #110
3.0 #215Blocks per game2.8 #268
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Missouri St

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech66–69
  • Wvs Liberty77–69
  • Wvs FIU75–72
  • Lvs MTSU63–75
  • Wvs Western KY87–74

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern77–80
  • Wvs Louisiana81–58
  • Wvs Southern Miss89–84
  • W@ UL Monroe102–94
  • W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.