Little Rock Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 12:00 AM ETFirst National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Little Rock and Arkansas St
LR	This season	ARST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARST 79–73 · win probability ARST 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARST has more of the edges

LR 1, ARST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ARSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LR 31.5%, ARST 38.2%. Defensive: LR 63.4%, ARST 73.0%

LRBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LR 18.4%, ARST 19.8%. Forced: LR 18.6%, ARST 14.9%

Context

Schedule so far

LR has played the 347th-hardest schedule, ARST the 221st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: LR plays 67.6 a game (248th fastest), ARST 73.4 (16th). Faster games mean more points

ARSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LR 49.4 and allows 51.8; ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3

ARSTSmall

ARST offense vs LR defense

Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings

ARSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LR 27.7, ARST 39.1. Allowed: LR 33.1, ARST 37.0

ARSTSmall

Home court

ARST at home. This season: ARST 0-0 at home, LR 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%; ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 31.0% and 44.9% of their shots

Even

LR offense vs ARST defense

Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LR 12%, ARST 6%. Transfers in: LR 8, ARST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ARST -5.8	—
Total	—	152.3	—
Projected score	—	LR 73.3 · ARST 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARST -3.3	—
1H total	71.2	—
1H projected score	LR 33.9 · ARST 37.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LR WLLWL	12-18	40%	8-10	—
ARST WLLWL	15-15	50%	7-6	—

Venue/role: LR away; ARST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LR UUOOU	15-15	50%	10-20
ARST UOOUU	15-15	50%	18-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ARST	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Little Rock

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs SIU	L65–74WU
Dec 15	vs MILW	L72–92LO

Arkansas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ STMN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LR 1–3 ARSTARST leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · ARST has won the last 2 meetings · LR 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	ARST 90 @ LR 78	LR +9.5	ARST W
Nov 12, 2024-25	LR 63 @ ARST 80	ARST -14.5	ARST W
Dec 1, 2023-24	ARST 66 @ LR 77	LR -1.5	LR W
Dec 22, 2022-23	LR 75 @ ARST 77	ARST -5.5	LR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Little Rock

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L L L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1840%

L L W L L W L L L L W W L W W W L W L L W L L W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O O O U U O U O U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@MILW	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@MARQ	L 49-89	+21.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BALL	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MUR	L 68-89	+13.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 21	@TXST	L 56-65	+5.5	L −3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 29	@SIU	L 65-74	+13.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 3	@CARK	L 47-85	+3.5	L −34.5	138.5	U 132
Dec 6	vsARST	L 78-90	+9.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 168
Dec 9	@WVU	L 58-90	+27.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 16	@MORE	L 64-78	+2.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 142
Dec 18	@USI	W 77-62	-2.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 1	vsTNTC	W 77-58	-1.5	W +17.5	144.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsTNST	L 79-84	+1.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@SIUE	W 73-70	+3.5	W +6.5	131.5	O 143
Jan 10	@LIN	W 82-74	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsEIU	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 17	vsWIU	W 86-79	-10.5	L −3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@SEMO	L 65-70	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@TNST	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@TNTC	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 164
Feb 3	@UTM	L 52-55	+6.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 107
Feb 5	vsLIN	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 7	vsSIUE	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 12	@WIU	W 77-58	-7.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 14	@EIU	L 72-78	-2.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsUTM	W 67-65	+2.5	W +4.5	136.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsSEMO	L 65-70	+1.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 26	vsMORE	L 70-76	-2.5	L −8.5	138.5	O 146
Feb 28	vsUSI	W 89-70	-5.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 4	vsLIN	L 62-72	+5.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

−16.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−18.5

BALL

W 68-62

+8.5

MUR

L 68-89

−7.5

TXST

L 56-65

−3.5

SIU

L 65-74

+4.5

CARK

L 47-85

−34.5

ARST

L 78-90

−2.5

WVU

L 58-90

−4.5

L 64-78

−11.5

USI

W 77-62

+12.5

TNTC

W 77-58

+17.5

TNST

L 79-84

−3.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+6.5

LIN

W 82-74

+14.5

EIU

W 74-63

+4.5

WIU

W 86-79

−3.5

SEMO

L 65-70

+0.5

TNST

L 63-70

−2.5

TNTC

L 77-87

−11.5

UTM

L 52-55

+3.5

LIN

L 74-79

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−11.5

WIU

W 77-58

+11.5

EIU

L 72-78

−8.5

UTM

W 67-65

+4.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−3.5

L 70-76

−8.5

USI

W 89-70

+13.5

LIN

L 62-72

−4.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

+7.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−17.5

BALL

W 68-62

−16.5

MUR

L 68-89

+3.5

TXST

L 56-65

−10.5

SIU

L 65-74

−2.5

CARK

L 47-85

−6.5

ARST

L 78-90

+20.5

WVU

L 58-90

+15.5

L 64-78

+5.5

USI

W 77-62

−1.5

TNTC

W 77-58

−9.5

TNST

L 79-84

+18.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+11.5

LIN

W 82-74

+6.5

EIU

W 74-63

+3.5

WIU

W 86-79

+29.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−10.5

TNST

L 63-70

−17.5

TNTC

L 77-87

+22.5

UTM

L 52-55

−32.5

LIN

L 74-79

+3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−0.5

WIU

W 77-58

−6.5

EIU

L 72-78

+15.5

UTM

W 67-65

−4.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−8.5

L 70-76

+7.5

USI

W 89-70

+19.5

LIN

L 62-72

−14.5

over 15under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arkansas St

30 games played

Straight up

18-12

60% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1260%

W L W L L W W W W L W W L W W L L W L L L W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

W L W W L W W W W L W W L W L L L W L L L L W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U O O U U O U O U O O U U O O O U O U U U U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OHIO	W 89-85	+3.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 7	@SFA	L 65-90	-1.5	L −26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@MOST	W 86-85	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 19	@SMC	L 72-85	+20.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 21	@SMU	L 69-100	+14.5	L −16.5	172.5	U 169
Nov 24	vsJXST	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 28	vsNDSU	W 85-80	-3.5	W +1.5	160.5	O 165
Dec 2	vsUTA	W 83-63	-5.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LR	W 90-78	-9.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 168
Dec 13	@RICE	L 76-77	-2.5	L −3.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 17	@TXST	W 89-70	-4.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 159
Dec 20	@USM	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsJMU	L 74-78	-10.5	L −14.5	158.5	U 152
Jan 7	vsTROY	W 86-74	-4.5	W +7.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 10	vsTXST	W 83-82	-11.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 165
Jan 15	@USA	L 87-91	-4.5	L −8.5	154.5	O 178
Jan 17	@TROY	L 74-99	+3.5	L −21.5	165.5	O 173
Jan 22	@GASO	W 85-68	-1.5	W +15.5	172.5	U 153
Jan 24	@GAST	L 81-82	-4.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 28	vsODU	L 71-75	-9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsMRSH	L 61-70	-3.5	L −12.5	165.5	U 131
Feb 4	@CCU	W 70-66	-4.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsBGSU	W 91-54	-2.5	W +34.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 11	vsULM	W 103-70	-20.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 173
Feb 14	vsUSA	L 88-92	-8.5	L −12.5	149.5	O 180
Feb 19	@UL	W 79-62	-8.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 141
Feb 21	@ULM	W 102-94	-15.5	L −7.5	165.5	O 196
Feb 24	vsUSM	W 89-84	-9.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 173
Feb 27	vsUL	W 81-58	-13.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 5	vsGASO	L 77-80	-7.5	L −10.5	165.5	U 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+7.5

SFA

L 65-90

−26.5

MOST

W 86-85

+2.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−16.5

JXST

W 74-63

+6.5

NDSU

W 85-80

+1.5

UTA

W 83-63

+14.5

W 90-78

+2.5

RICE

L 76-77

−3.5

TXST

W 89-70

+14.5

USM

W 93-86

+5.5

JMU

L 74-78

−14.5

TROY

W 86-74

+7.5

TXST

W 83-82

−10.5

USA

L 87-91

−8.5

TROY

L 74-99

−21.5

GASO

W 85-68

+15.5

GAST

L 81-82

−5.5

ODU

L 71-75

−13.5

MRSH

L 61-70

−12.5

CCU

W 70-66

−0.5

BGSU

W 91-54

+34.5

ULM

W 103-70

+12.5

USA

L 88-92

−12.5

W 79-62

+8.5

ULM

W 102-94

−7.5

USM

W 89-84

−4.5

W 81-58

+9.5

GASO

L 77-80

−10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+14.5

SFA

L 65-90

−0.5

MOST

W 86-85

+18.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

SMU

L 69-100

−3.5

JXST

W 74-63

−18.5

NDSU

W 85-80

+4.5

UTA

W 83-63

−5.5

W 90-78

+20.5

RICE

L 76-77

−2.5

TXST

W 89-70

+7.5

USM

W 93-86

+23.5

JMU

L 74-78

−6.5

TROY

W 86-74

−0.5

TXST

W 83-82

+8.5

USA

L 87-91

+23.5

TROY

L 74-99

+7.5

GASO

W 85-68

−19.5

GAST

L 81-82

+5.5

ODU

L 71-75

−13.5

MRSH

L 61-70

−34.5

CCU

W 70-66

−15.5

BGSU

W 91-54

−9.5

ULM

W 103-70

+10.5

USA

L 88-92

+30.5

W 79-62

−3.5

ULM

W 102-94

+30.5

USM

W 89-84

+14.5

W 81-58

−7.5

GASO

L 77-80

−8.5

over 15under 15avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Little Rock 1, Arkansas St 1, even 3

Little RockBetterArkansas St

G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62

ARSTSmall

G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83

G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46

Even

G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45

G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

Even

G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33

F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80

LRBig

F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36

F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

Little RockBetterArkansas St

LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3

Even

ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6

LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2

ARSTSmall

ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

ARSTSmall

Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

LRSmall

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

Bench-2.3 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestLR betterARST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Little Rock

Guards

A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew

Forwards

B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew

Arkansas St

Guards

J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew

Forwards

A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LR68.9 #300

ARST81.8 #33

Points per possession

LR1.02 #306

ARST1.11 #117

Pace (possessions)

LR67.6 #248

ARST73.4 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

LR49.4 #273

ARST51.7 #164

3-point %

LR35.3 #96

ARST32.9 #240

3-point attempt rate

LR31.0 #339

ARST44.9 #70

Free throw rate

LR27.7 #345

ARST39.1 #78

Possessions

Turnover rate

LR18.4 #292

ARST19.8 #344

Offensive rebound rate

LR31.5 #143

ARST38.2 #6

Assists per game

LR13.4 #183

ARST15.3 #77

Defense

Points allowed

LR74.2 #160

ARST78.0 #268

Points allowed per possession

LR1.10 #217

ARST1.07 #121

Opponent effective FG%

LR51.8 #199

ARST50.3 #117

Opponent 3-point %

LR34.4 #211

ARST32.9 #115

Turnovers forced

LR18.6 #71

ARST14.9 #298

Defensive rebound rate

LR63.4 #357

ARST73.0 #36

Steals per game

LR7.5 #77

ARST7.2 #110

Blocks per game

LR4.4 #45

ARST2.8 #268

LR		ARST
Scoring
68.9 #300	Points per game	81.8 #33
1.02 #306	Points per possession	1.11 #117
67.6 #248	Pace (possessions)	73.4 #16
Shooting
49.4 #273	Effective FG%	51.7 #164
35.3 #96	3-point %	32.9 #240
31.0 #339	3-point attempt rate	44.9 #70
27.7 #345	Free throw rate	39.1 #78
Possessions
18.4 #292	Turnover rate	19.8 #344
31.5 #143	Offensive rebound rate	38.2 #6
13.4 #183	Assists per game	15.3 #77
Defense
74.2 #160	Points allowed	78.0 #268
1.10 #217	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #121
51.8 #199	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #117
34.4 #211	Opponent 3-point %	32.9 #115
18.6 #71	Turnovers forced	14.9 #298
63.4 #357	Defensive rebound rate	73.0 #36
7.5 #77	Steals per game	7.2 #110
4.4 #45	Blocks per game	2.8 #268

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
Lvs Morehead St70–76
Lvs SE Missouri65–70
Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern77–80
Wvs Louisiana81–58
Wvs Southern Miss89–84
W@ UL Monroe102–94
W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.

Little Rock Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves

What could decide it: ARST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Little Rock

Arkansas St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Little Rock

Arkansas St