Akron Zips at Bucknell Bison: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETSojka Pavilion · at Bucknell

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Akron and Bucknell
AKR	This season	BUCK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AKR 81–69 · win probability AKR 86%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AKR has more of the edges

AKR 7, BUCK 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

AKRBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: AKR 58.1 and allows 51.2; BUCK 48.5 and allows 54.7

AKRBig

Three-pointers

AKR hits 38.2% and allows 35.5%; BUCK hits 30.6% and allows 37.0%. Threes are 44.8% and 42.8% of their shots

AKRBig

BUCK offense vs AKR defense

Offense 317th of 366 against a defense 168th, on the model’s ratings

AKRBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AKR 33.4%, BUCK 27.0%. Defensive: AKR 70.1%, BUCK 68.7%

AKRBig

AKR offense vs BUCK defense

Offense 101st of 366 against a defense 237th, on the model’s ratings

AKRBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AKR 15.5%, BUCK 18.9%. Forced: AKR 18.3%, BUCK 17.9%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: AKR plays 71.1 a game (70th fastest), BUCK 67.7 (242nd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

AKR has played the 159th-hardest schedule, BUCK the 227th. A record against a soft schedule means less

AKRSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: AKR 29.2, BUCK 29.8. Allowed: AKR 30.4, BUCK 35.3

BUCKSmall

Home court

BUCK at home. This season: BUCK 0-0 at home, AKR 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AKR 28%, BUCK 39%. Transfers in: AKR 5, BUCK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AKR -12.1	—
Total	—	149.8	—
Projected score	—	AKR 80.9 · BUCK 68.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AKR -7.3	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	AKR 38.7 · BUCK 31.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WLWLL	17-16	52%	8-4	—
BUCK LWLWW	14-19	42%	5-9	—

Venue/role: AKR away; BUCK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UUUUO	15-18	45%	27-6
BUCK UOOUO	13-20	39%	10-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
BUCK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Akron

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs WRST	W66–54WU
Nov 24	vs BEL	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs APP	L45–57LU

Bucknell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs SIE	L58–71LU
Nov 24	@ COR	L72–101LO
Nov 27	vs LAS	L57–69LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

AKR 1–0 BUCKAKR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · AKR 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	BUCK 77 @ AKR 97	AKR -23.5	BUCK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Akron

33 games played

Straight up

27-6

82% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-682%

W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W W W W W L W L W L W L L W L L W W L W L L L W L L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O O O U U O O O U O O U U U O O U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJMU	W 85-71	-8.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsPRIN	W 104-69	-13.5	W +21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 16	@PUR	L 79-97	+18.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 21	vsIONA	W 96-75	-11.5	W +9.5	173.5	U 171
Nov 23	vsEVAN	W 97-59	-11.5	W +26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsYALE	L 94-97	-1.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 191
Nov 29	vsMILW	W 105-81	-12.5	W +11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 3	vsBUCK	W 97-77	-23.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	@TULN	W 88-71	-6.5	W +10.5	162.5	U 159
Dec 13	vsMUR	L 100-115	-4.5	L −19.5	168.5	O 215
Dec 19	vsEMU	W 93-72	-15.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 165
Jan 3	@M-OH	L 73-76	-4.5	L −7.5	177.5	U 149
Jan 6	vsCMU	W 82-69	-23.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 151
Jan 9	@BGSU	W 77-67	-4.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 13	vsBALL	W 87-77	-20.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 17	vsWMU	W 104-89	-21.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 193
Jan 20	@BUF	W 82-63	-8.5	W +10.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 23	@OHIO	W 86-65	-6.5	W +14.5	167.5	U 151
Jan 27	vsTOL	W 91-81	-12.5	L −2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 30	vsKENT	W 69-52	-10.5	W +6.5	166.5	U 121
Feb 3	@EMU	W 66-64	-12.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 130
Feb 7	@TROY	L 69-79	-2.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 148
Feb 13	vsMASS	W 99-92	-12.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 191
Feb 17	@WMU	W 90-73	-14.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 163
Feb 20	@BALL	W 78-65	-13.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 24	vsBUF	W 99-85	-15.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 184
Feb 27	@KENT	W 92-70	-3.5	W +18.5	166.5	U 162
Mar 3	@CMU	W 77-64	-11.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 141
Mar 6	vsNIU	W 94-55	-23.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 149
Mar 12	vsBUF	W 73-70	-12.5	L −9.5	158.5	U 143
Mar 13	vsKENT	W 75-68	-6.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsTOL	W 79-76	-7.5	L −4.5	157.5	U 155
Mar 20	vsTTU	L 71-91	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+5.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+21.5

PUR

L 79-97

+0.5

IONA

W 96-75

+9.5

EVAN

W 97-59

+26.5

YALE

L 94-97

−4.5

MILW

W 105-81

+11.5

BUCK

W 97-77

−3.5

TULN

W 88-71

+10.5

MUR

L 100-115

−19.5

EMU

W 93-72

+5.5

M-OH

L 73-76

−7.5

CMU

W 82-69

−10.5

BGSU

W 77-67

+5.5

BALL

W 87-77

−10.5

WMU

W 104-89

−6.5

BUF

W 82-63

+10.5

OHIO

W 86-65

+14.5

TOL

W 91-81

−2.5

KENT

W 69-52

+6.5

EMU

W 66-64

−10.5

TROY

L 69-79

−12.5

MASS

W 99-92

−5.5

WMU

W 90-73

+2.5

BALL

W 78-65

−0.5

BUF

W 99-85

−1.5

KENT

W 92-70

+18.5

CMU

W 77-64

+1.5

NIU

W 94-55

+15.5

BUF

W 73-70

−9.5

KENT

W 75-68

+0.5

TOL

W 79-76

−4.5

TTU

L 71-91

−13.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+2.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+16.5

PUR

L 79-97

+12.5

IONA

W 96-75

−2.5

EVAN

W 97-59

−0.5

YALE

L 94-97

+34.5

MILW

W 105-81

+19.5

BUCK

W 97-77

+16.5

TULN

W 88-71

−3.5

MUR

L 100-115

+46.5

EMU

W 93-72

+9.5

M-OH

L 73-76

−28.5

CMU

W 82-69

−13.5

BGSU

W 77-67

−19.5

BALL

W 87-77

+11.5

WMU

W 104-89

+29.5

BUF

W 82-63

−21.5

OHIO

W 86-65

−16.5

TOL

W 91-81

+3.5

KENT

W 69-52

−45.5

EMU

W 66-64

−23.5

TROY

L 69-79

−9.5

MASS

W 99-92

+27.5

WMU

W 90-73

+2.5

BALL

W 78-65

−4.5

BUF

W 99-85

+23.5

KENT

W 92-70

−4.5

CMU

W 77-64

−17.5

NIU

W 94-55

−6.5

BUF

W 73-70

−15.5

KENT

W 75-68

−20.5

TOL

W 79-76

−2.5

TTU

L 71-91

+7.5

over 15under 18avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucknell

33 games played

Straight up

10-23

30% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2330%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U U O O O U O O U U O O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	@NAVY	L 55-76	+8.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsL-MD	W 70-67	-6.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsLAF	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	@COLG	L 76-95	+8.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsARMY	L 84-87	-4.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@L-MD	L 62-67	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	@LAF	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBU	W 103-97	+1.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 4	@AMER	W 60-59	+7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsCOLG	L 59-78	+5.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 9	vsNAVY	L 60-76	+6.5	L −9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@BU	L 69-82	+5.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsAMER	L 57-75	+3.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	vsHC	L 63-72	-2.5	L −11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@ARMY	W 75-73	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LEH	L 79-89	+5.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsARMY	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NAVY	L 69-74	+15.5	W +10.5	133.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−12.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−3.5

LAF

W 76-69

+4.5

COLG

L 76-95

−10.5

ARMY

L 84-87

−7.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−2.5

LAF

L 79-81

+2.5

W 103-97

+7.5

AMER

W 60-59

+8.5

COLG

L 59-78

−13.5

NAVY

L 60-76

−9.5

L 69-82

−7.5

AMER

L 57-75

−14.5

L 63-72

−11.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+4.5

LEH

L 79-89

−4.5

ARMY

W 65-55

+8.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−6.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−6.5

LAF

W 76-69

+7.5

COLG

L 76-95

+31.5

ARMY

L 84-87

+26.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−18.5

LAF

L 79-81

+21.5

W 103-97

+61.5

AMER

W 60-59

−22.5

COLG

L 59-78

−4.5

NAVY

L 60-76

+0.5

L 69-82

+13.5

AMER

L 57-75

−8.5

L 63-72

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+5.5

LEH

L 79-89

+29.5

ARMY

W 65-55

−24.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+9.5

over 13under 20avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Akron has the better starters

Position by position: Akron 3, Bucknell 0, even 2

AkronBetterBucknell

G T. Staveskie TR17.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 74

AKRBig

G J. Williams7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 23

G T. Pence TR9.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 86

AKRBig

G A. Pachucki5.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 25

F E. Mahaffey9.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.4 ast Score 69

No call

G K. Marshall TR3.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

F M. Burton TR5.5 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14

Even

G J. Meachem1.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 2

F B. Hammer TR4.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 55

AKRBig

F L. Soroa Schaller TR5.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 13

AkronBetterBucknell

AKR offense101st of 366 · -1.1

AKRBig

BUCK defense237th of 366 · -6.2

AKR defense168th of 366 · -3.7

AKRBig

BUCK offense317th of 366 · -10.4

Backcourt+2.7 · 2 players

AKRBig

Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

Bench-2.6 · 4 players

BUCKSmall

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestAKR betterBUCK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Akron

Guards

T. Staveskie36 min · TRT. Pence24 min · TRC. HeadNewT. PerkinsNewJ. HendersonNewE. WilsonNew

Forwards

E. Mahaffey29 minM. Burton25 min · TRB. Hammer14 min · TRZ. Halligan12 minC. White9 min · TRM. Musiime-Kamali9 min

Bucknell

Guards

J. Williams33 minA. Pachucki21 minK. Marshall17 min · TRJ. Meachem10 minM. Lange3 minR. LamunoNew

Forwards

L. Soroa Schaller21 min · TRP. O'Brien10 minK. Welch2 minE. Marten-ConeyNewL. BergsengNewA. RousseauNew

Centers

D. KennardNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AKR86.4 #8

BUCK67.4 #327

Points per possession

AKR1.22 #6

BUCK0.99 #332

Pace (possessions)

AKR71.1 #70

BUCK67.7 #242

Shooting

Effective FG%

AKR58.1 #9

BUCK48.5 #304

3-point %

AKR38.2 #15

BUCK30.6 #328

3-point attempt rate

AKR44.8 #74

BUCK42.8 #123

Free throw rate

AKR29.2 #327

BUCK29.8 #314

Possessions

Turnover rate

AKR15.5 #104

BUCK18.9 #319

Offensive rebound rate

AKR33.4 #78

BUCK27.0 #295

Assists per game

AKR17.7 #12

BUCK12.7 #235

Defense

Points allowed

AKR75.0 #188

BUCK76.3 #226

Points allowed per possession

AKR1.06 #98

BUCK1.13 #289

Opponent effective FG%

AKR51.2 #173

BUCK54.7 #323

Opponent 3-point %

AKR35.5 #284

BUCK37.0 #344

Turnovers forced

AKR18.3 #86

BUCK17.9 #100

Defensive rebound rate

AKR70.1 #156

BUCK68.7 #216

Steals per game

AKR7.2 #108

BUCK7.2 #105

Blocks per game

AKR2.9 #240

BUCK1.8 #354

AKR		BUCK
Scoring
86.4 #8	Points per game	67.4 #327
1.22 #6	Points per possession	0.99 #332
71.1 #70	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #242
Shooting
58.1 #9	Effective FG%	48.5 #304
38.2 #15	3-point %	30.6 #328
44.8 #74	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #123
29.2 #327	Free throw rate	29.8 #314
Possessions
15.5 #104	Turnover rate	18.9 #319
33.4 #78	Offensive rebound rate	27.0 #295
17.7 #12	Assists per game	12.7 #235
Defense
75.0 #188	Points allowed	76.3 #226
1.06 #98	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #289
51.2 #173	Opponent effective FG%	54.7 #323
35.5 #284	Opponent 3-point %	37.0 #344
18.3 #86	Turnovers forced	17.9 #100
70.1 #156	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #216
7.2 #108	Steals per game	7.2 #105
2.9 #240	Blocks per game	1.8 #354

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Akron

27-6 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas Tech71–91
Wvs Toledo79–76
Wvs Kent State75–68
Wvs Buffalo73–70
Wvs N Illinois94–55

A week or more of rest.

Bucknell

10-23 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Navy69–74
Wvs Army65–55
L@ Lehigh79–89
W@ Army75–73
Lvs Holy Cross63–72

A week or more of rest.

Akron Zips at Bucknell Bison

What could decide it: AKR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Akron

Bucknell

Akron has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Akron

Bucknell