Akron Zips vs App State Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 3:00 PM ETState Farm Field House · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Akron and App State
AKR	This season	APP
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AKR 78–67 · win probability AKR 82%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AKR has more of the edges

AKR 5, APP 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

AKRBig

APP offense vs AKR defense

Offense 328th of 366 against a defense 168th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: AKR plays 71.1 a game (70th fastest), APP 64.3 (358th). Faster games mean more points

APPBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: AKR 29.2, APP 39.1. Allowed: AKR 30.4, APP 31.2

AKRBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AKR 15.5%, APP 15.3%. Forced: AKR 18.3%, APP 14.0%

Context

Schedule so far

AKR has played the 159th-hardest schedule, APP the 252nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

AKRSmall

Three-pointers

AKR hits 38.2% and allows 35.5%; APP hits 30.4% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 44.8% and 45.9% of their shots

AKRSmall

AKR offense vs APP defense

Offense 101st of 366 against a defense 148th, on the model’s ratings

AKRSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: AKR 58.1 and allows 51.2; APP 49.9 and allows 47.5

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AKR 28%, APP 25%. Transfers in: AKR 5, APP 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AKR 33.4%, APP 32.0%. Defensive: AKR 70.1%, APP 71.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AKR -10.5	—
Total	—	145.0	—
Projected score	—	AKR 77.7 · APP 67.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AKR -6.4	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	AKR 37.1 · APP 30.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
AKR WLWLL	17-16	52%	3-5	—
APP LLWLL	17-13	57%	1-2	—

Venue/role: AKR neutral site; APP neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UUUUO	15-18	45%	27-6
APP UOOUO	12-18	40%	17-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
APP	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Akron

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs BALL	W78–65LU

App State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs DART	W85–77WO
Dec 5	@ UK	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs ECU	W67–54WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

AKR 0–1 APPAPP leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · AKR 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 23, 2021-22	APP 57 vs AKR 45	AKR -2	APP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Akron

33 games played

Straight up

27-6

82% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-682%

W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W W W W W L W L W L W L L W L L W W L W L L L W L L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O O O U U O O O U O O U U U O O U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJMU	W 85-71	-8.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsPRIN	W 104-69	-13.5	W +21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 16	@PUR	L 79-97	+18.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 21	vsIONA	W 96-75	-11.5	W +9.5	173.5	U 171
Nov 23	vsEVAN	W 97-59	-11.5	W +26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsYALE	L 94-97	-1.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 191
Nov 29	vsMILW	W 105-81	-12.5	W +11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 3	vsBUCK	W 97-77	-23.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	@TULN	W 88-71	-6.5	W +10.5	162.5	U 159
Dec 13	vsMUR	L 100-115	-4.5	L −19.5	168.5	O 215
Dec 19	vsEMU	W 93-72	-15.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 165
Jan 3	@M-OH	L 73-76	-4.5	L −7.5	177.5	U 149
Jan 6	vsCMU	W 82-69	-23.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 151
Jan 9	@BGSU	W 77-67	-4.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 13	vsBALL	W 87-77	-20.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 17	vsWMU	W 104-89	-21.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 193
Jan 20	@BUF	W 82-63	-8.5	W +10.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 23	@OHIO	W 86-65	-6.5	W +14.5	167.5	U 151
Jan 27	vsTOL	W 91-81	-12.5	L −2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 30	vsKENT	W 69-52	-10.5	W +6.5	166.5	U 121
Feb 3	@EMU	W 66-64	-12.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 130
Feb 7	@TROY	L 69-79	-2.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 148
Feb 13	vsMASS	W 99-92	-12.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 191
Feb 17	@WMU	W 90-73	-14.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 163
Feb 20	@BALL	W 78-65	-13.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 24	vsBUF	W 99-85	-15.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 184
Feb 27	@KENT	W 92-70	-3.5	W +18.5	166.5	U 162
Mar 3	@CMU	W 77-64	-11.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 141
Mar 6	vsNIU	W 94-55	-23.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 149
Mar 12	vsBUF	W 73-70	-12.5	L −9.5	158.5	U 143
Mar 13	vsKENT	W 75-68	-6.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsTOL	W 79-76	-7.5	L −4.5	157.5	U 155
Mar 20	vsTTU	L 71-91	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+5.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+21.5

PUR

L 79-97

+0.5

IONA

W 96-75

+9.5

EVAN

W 97-59

+26.5

YALE

L 94-97

−4.5

MILW

W 105-81

+11.5

BUCK

W 97-77

−3.5

TULN

W 88-71

+10.5

MUR

L 100-115

−19.5

EMU

W 93-72

+5.5

M-OH

L 73-76

−7.5

CMU

W 82-69

−10.5

BGSU

W 77-67

+5.5

BALL

W 87-77

−10.5

WMU

W 104-89

−6.5

BUF

W 82-63

+10.5

OHIO

W 86-65

+14.5

TOL

W 91-81

−2.5

KENT

W 69-52

+6.5

EMU

W 66-64

−10.5

TROY

L 69-79

−12.5

MASS

W 99-92

−5.5

WMU

W 90-73

+2.5

BALL

W 78-65

−0.5

BUF

W 99-85

−1.5

KENT

W 92-70

+18.5

CMU

W 77-64

+1.5

NIU

W 94-55

+15.5

BUF

W 73-70

−9.5

KENT

W 75-68

+0.5

TOL

W 79-76

−4.5

TTU

L 71-91

−13.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+2.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+16.5

PUR

L 79-97

+12.5

IONA

W 96-75

−2.5

EVAN

W 97-59

−0.5

YALE

L 94-97

+34.5

MILW

W 105-81

+19.5

BUCK

W 97-77

+16.5

TULN

W 88-71

−3.5

MUR

L 100-115

+46.5

EMU

W 93-72

+9.5

M-OH

L 73-76

−28.5

CMU

W 82-69

−13.5

BGSU

W 77-67

−19.5

BALL

W 87-77

+11.5

WMU

W 104-89

+29.5

BUF

W 82-63

−21.5

OHIO

W 86-65

−16.5

TOL

W 91-81

+3.5

KENT

W 69-52

−45.5

EMU

W 66-64

−23.5

TROY

L 69-79

−9.5

MASS

W 99-92

+27.5

WMU

W 90-73

+2.5

BALL

W 78-65

−4.5

BUF

W 99-85

+23.5

KENT

W 92-70

−4.5

CMU

W 77-64

−17.5

NIU

W 94-55

−6.5

BUF

W 73-70

−15.5

KENT

W 75-68

−20.5

TOL

W 79-76

−2.5

TTU

L 71-91

+7.5

over 15under 18avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

App State

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-18

40% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L W L W W L L L W W W L W L W L W L W W W W W W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

L W W W W L L L W W W L W W W L W L W L W W W L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1840%

O U U O U U U U U O U U O O U U O O O U U U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CMU	L 66-82	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	vsNCCU	W 76-54	-10.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 11	@OSU	L 53-75	+23.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 128
Nov 16	@DART	W 85-77	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsCLT	W 65-63	-1.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 128
Nov 24	vsELON	L 53-88	-5.5	L −40.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 26	@MER	L 67-75	+6.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 30	vsUNCA	L 55-67	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 11	@ECU	W 67-54	+4.5	W +17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsHPU	W 86-78	+12.5	W +20.5	144.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsCCU	W 67-49	-4.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsGAST	L 63-70	-7.5	L −14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@ODU	W 81-73	+1.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 154
Jan 3	@MRSH	L 81-88	+7.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 169
Jan 8	@GAST	W 52-50	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	@CCU	L 62-67	-1.5	L −6.5	133.5	U 129
Jan 15	vsJMU	W 80-65	-2.5	W +12.5	133.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsODU	L 73-75	-7.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 22	vsUL	W 72-58	-9.5	W +4.5	124.5	O 130
Jan 23	vsULM	W 59-43	-16.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 102
Jan 29	@USM	W 70-63	-1.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 133
Jan 31	@TROY	W 66-44	+7.5	W +29.5	137.5	U 110
Feb 4	vsUSA	W 65-57	-5.5	W +2.5	131.5	U 122
Feb 7	vsEMU	W 65-60	-7.5	L −2.5	131.5	U 125
Feb 11	@GASO	W 81-65	-1.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 146
Feb 14	@JMU	L 58-69	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 19	vsMRSH	L 93-94	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 187
Feb 21	vsGASO	W 89-74	-7.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 163
Feb 27	@TXST	L 57-60	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 117
Mar 7	vsUSM	L 73-86	-4.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

−14.5

NCCU

W 76-54

+11.5

OSU

L 53-75

+1.5

DART

W 85-77

+6.5

CLT

W 65-63

+0.5

ELON

L 53-88

−40.5

MER

L 67-75

−1.5

UNCA

L 55-67

−10.5

ECU

W 67-54

+17.5

HPU

W 86-78

+20.5

CCU

W 67-49

+13.5

GAST

L 63-70

−14.5

ODU

W 81-73

+9.5

MRSH

L 81-88

+0.5

GAST

W 52-50

+0.5

CCU

L 62-67

−6.5

JMU

W 80-65

+12.5

ODU

L 73-75

−9.5

W 72-58

+4.5

ULM

W 59-43

−0.5

USM

W 70-63

+5.5

TROY

W 66-44

+29.5

USA

W 65-57

+2.5

EMU

W 65-60

−2.5

GASO

W 81-65

+14.5

JMU

L 58-69

−12.5

MRSH

L 93-94

−4.5

GASO

W 89-74

+7.5

TXST

L 57-60

−4.5

USM

L 73-86

−17.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

+5.5

NCCU

W 76-54

−6.5

OSU

L 53-75

−19.5

DART

W 85-77

+21.5

CLT

W 65-63

−4.5

ELON

L 53-88

−2.5

MER

L 67-75

−0.5

UNCA

L 55-67

−15.5

ECU

W 67-54

−9.5

HPU

W 86-78

+19.5

CCU

W 67-49

−21.5

GAST

L 63-70

−4.5

ODU

W 81-73

+17.5

MRSH

L 81-88

+27.5

GAST

W 52-50

−38.5

CCU

L 62-67

−4.5

JMU

W 80-65

+11.5

ODU

L 73-75

+7.5

W 72-58

+5.5

ULM

W 59-43

−42.5

USM

W 70-63

−1.5

TROY

W 66-44

−27.5

USA

W 65-57

−9.5

EMU

W 65-60

−6.5

GASO

W 81-65

+2.5

JMU

L 58-69

−7.5

MRSH

L 93-94

+43.5

GASO

W 89-74

+15.5

TXST

L 57-60

−18.5

USM

L 73-86

+21.5

over 12under 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Akron has the better starters

Position by position: Akron 3, App State 1, even 1

AkronBetterApp State

G T. Staveskie TR17.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 74

AKRBig

G H. Koffi TR12.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30

G T. Pence TR9.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 86

AKRBig

G E. Banks6.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15

F E. Mahaffey9.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.4 ast Score 69

AKRBig

F C. Moodie2.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 15

F M. Burton TR5.5 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14

APPSmall

F A. Njock2.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 37

F B. Hammer TR4.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 55

No call

C R. Elezaj TR0 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

AkronBetterApp State

AKR offense101st of 366 · -1.1

Even

APP defense148th of 366 · -3.2

AKR defense168th of 366 · -3.7

AKRBig

APP offense328th of 366 · -10.6

Backcourt+2.7 · 2 players

AKRBig

Backcourt-5.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players

Bench-2.6 · 4 players

APPSmall

Bench+0.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestAKR betterAPP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Akron

Guards

T. Staveskie36 min · TRT. Pence24 min · TRC. HeadNewT. PerkinsNewJ. HendersonNewE. WilsonNew

Forwards

E. Mahaffey29 minM. Burton25 min · TRB. Hammer14 min · TRZ. Halligan12 minC. White9 min · TRM. Musiime-Kamali9 min

App State

Guards

H. Koffi36 min · TRE. Banks26 minC. O'Kelley1 minL. LedfordNewB. KopetzkiNewJ. ColonNew

Forwards

C. Moodie12 minA. Njock11 minD. LytchNewG. ClaytonNewT. NealNew

Centers

R. Elezaj1 min · TRB. ChretienNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AKR86.4 #8

APP69.3 #295

Points per possession

AKR1.22 #6

APP1.08 #187

Pace (possessions)

AKR71.1 #70

APP64.3 #358

Shooting

Effective FG%

AKR58.1 #9

APP49.9 #240

3-point %

AKR38.2 #15

APP30.4 #335

3-point attempt rate

AKR44.8 #74

APP45.9 #48

Free throw rate

AKR29.2 #327

APP39.1 #77

Possessions

Turnover rate

AKR15.5 #104

APP15.3 #87

Offensive rebound rate

AKR33.4 #78

APP32.0 #123

Assists per game

AKR17.7 #12

APP11.4 #318

Defense

Points allowed

AKR75.0 #188

APP67.4 #25

Points allowed per possession

AKR1.06 #98

APP1.05 #87

Opponent effective FG%

AKR51.2 #173

APP47.5 #33

Opponent 3-point %

AKR35.5 #284

APP32.2 #71

Turnovers forced

AKR18.3 #86

APP14.0 #336

Defensive rebound rate

AKR70.1 #156

APP71.0 #106

Steals per game

AKR7.2 #108

APP4.6 #351

Blocks per game

AKR2.9 #240

APP3.4 #155

AKR		APP
Scoring
86.4 #8	Points per game	69.3 #295
1.22 #6	Points per possession	1.08 #187
71.1 #70	Pace (possessions)	64.3 #358
Shooting
58.1 #9	Effective FG%	49.9 #240
38.2 #15	3-point %	30.4 #335
44.8 #74	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #48
29.2 #327	Free throw rate	39.1 #77
Possessions
15.5 #104	Turnover rate	15.3 #87
33.4 #78	Offensive rebound rate	32.0 #123
17.7 #12	Assists per game	11.4 #318
Defense
75.0 #188	Points allowed	67.4 #25
1.06 #98	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #87
51.2 #173	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #33
35.5 #284	Opponent 3-point %	32.2 #71
18.3 #86	Turnovers forced	14.0 #336
70.1 #156	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #106
7.2 #108	Steals per game	4.6 #351
2.9 #240	Blocks per game	3.4 #155

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Akron

27-6 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas Tech71–91
Wvs Toledo79–76
Wvs Kent State75–68
Wvs Buffalo73–70
Wvs N Illinois94–55

A week or more of rest.

App State

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss73–86
L@ Texas St57–60
Wvs GA Southern89–74
Lvs Marshall93–94
L@ James Madison58–69

A week or more of rest.

Akron Zips vs App State Mountaineers

What could decide it: AKR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Akron

App State

Akron has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Akron

App State