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  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. TA&M vs XAV
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Texas A&M Aggies vs Xavier Musketeers

Imperial Arena · Neutral site
#28TA&MTexas A&M
vs
#49XAVXavier
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TA&MThis seasonXAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TA&M 84–81 · win probability TA&M 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 165.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TA&M has more of the edges

TA&M 5, XAV 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TA&MBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: TA&M 53.8 and allows 50.7; XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1
TA&MSmall
Three-pointers
TA&M hits 35.9% and allows 31.8%; XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 46.2% and 40.6% of their shots
TA&MSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TA&M 14.7%, XAV 14.0%. Forced: TA&M 18.4%, XAV 15.5%
TA&MSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: TA&M 37.1, XAV 28.1. Allowed: TA&M 35.4, XAV 32.6
TA&MSmall
TA&M offense vs XAV defense
Offense 20th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings
Even
XAV offense vs TA&M defense
Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 62nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
TA&M has played the 57th-hardest schedule, XAV the 34th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TA&M 25%, XAV 14%. Transfers in: TA&M 7, XAV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: TA&M plays 73.5 a game (15th fastest), XAV 71.8 (44th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TA&M 32.0%, XAV 26.5%. Defensive: TA&M 67.0%, XAV 70.5%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TA&M -3.0—
Total—165.2—
Projected score—TA&M 84.1 · XAV 81.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTA&M -1.9—
1H total77.1—
1H projected scoreTA&M 39.5 · XAV 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Texas A&M 1, Xavier 1, even 3
Texas A&MBetterXavier
G P. Haggerty TR23.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
Even
G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G J. Pope TR13.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 78
Even
G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82
G T. Archie TR14.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 91
TA&MSmall
F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66
G L. Walls TR7.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 37
XAVBig
F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75
F J. Shelley TR13.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 76
Even
F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74
Texas A&MBetterXavier
TA&M offense20th of 366 · +7.7
TA&MSmall
XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2
TA&M defense62nd of 366 · +1.2
Even
XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt+8.6 · 4 players
TA&MSmall
Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
XAVSmall
Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players
Bench+2.5 · 5 players
XAVSmall
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTA&M betterXAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Texas A&M
Guards
P. Haggerty35 min · TRJ. Pope29 min · TRT. Archie26 min · TRL. Walls24 min · TRJ. Reece24 min · TRJ. Green5 min
Forwards
J. Shelley32 min · TRM. Mgbako19 minZ. Clemence17 minC. Phillips17 min · TRJ. Vinson7 minC. McDermott4 min
Xavier
Guards
C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew
Forwards
N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew
Centers
K. WestphalNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TA&MXAV
Scoring
86.1 #12Points per game78.4 #91
1.17 #43Points per possession1.09 #149
73.5 #15Pace (possessions)71.8 #44
Shooting
53.8 #71Effective FG%51.8 #155
35.9 #633-point %36.5 #39
46.2 #423-point attempt rate40.6 #156
37.1 #128Free throw rate28.1 #341
Possessions
14.7 #48Turnover rate14.0 #21
32.0 #122Offensive rebound rate26.5 #311
17.8 #11Assists per game17.4 #15
Defense
78.9 #296Points allowed80.6 #329
1.08 #151Points allowed per possession1.12 #276
50.7 #141Opponent effective FG%54.1 #302
31.8 #53Opponent 3-point %34.8 #237
18.4 #81Turnovers forced15.5 #253
67.0 #300Defensive rebound rate70.5 #136
8.1 #34Steals per game6.5 #181
3.1 #210Blocks per game4.0 #77
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas A&M

22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Houston57–88
  • Wvs Saint Mary's63–50
  • Lvs Oklahoma63–83
  • W@ LSU94–91
  • Wvs Kentucky96–85

A week or more of rest.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn68–93
  • Wvs Marquette89–87
  • L@ Villanova78–91
  • Lvs Seton Hall68–77
  • Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.