Abilene Christian Wildcats at South Dakota State Jackrabbits: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 2:00 PM ETFirst Bank & Trust Arena · at S Dakota St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Abilene Chrstn and S Dakota St
ACU	This season	SDST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDST 76–69 · win probability SDST 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDST has more of the edges

ACU 1, SDST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SDSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ACU 47.5 and allows 56.5; SDST 52.0 and allows 51.8

SDSTBig

Three-pointers

ACU hits 31.0% and allows 40.9%; SDST hits 34.0% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 32.8% and 38.8% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

ACU has played the 183rd-hardest schedule, SDST the 271st. A record against a soft schedule means less

SDSTSmall

ACU offense vs SDST defense

Offense 298th of 366 against a defense 221st, on the model’s ratings

ACUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ACU 20.8%, SDST 16.2%. Forced: ACU 23.4%, SDST 14.5%

SDSTSmall

Home court

SDST at home. This season: SDST 0-0 at home, ACU 0-0 away

SDSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ACU 25%, SDST 51%. Transfers in: ACU 3, SDST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ACU 31.0%, SDST 30.3%. Defensive: ACU 70.9%, SDST 74.9%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ACU 41.7, SDST 29.7. Allowed: ACU 53.5, SDST 34.5

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: ACU plays 69.2 a game (167th fastest), SDST 68.2 (220th). Faster games mean more points

Even

SDST offense vs ACU defense

Offense 185th of 366 against a defense 200th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SDST -6.5	—
Total	—	144.5	—
Projected score	—	ACU 69 · SDST 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDST -3.8	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	ACU 31.9 · SDST 35.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ACU WLLWL	14-16	47%	8-7	—
SDST LLWLL	12-17	41%	4-6	—

Venue/role: ACU away; SDST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ACU OUUOO	16-14	53%	11-19
SDST UOUUU	14-15	48%	11-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ACU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
SDST	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Abilene Chrstn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs PEPP	W71–63WU
Dec 5	vs SDST	No recent meeting
Dec 13	@ UTAH	L56–70LU

S Dakota St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs USA	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs FRES	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ ACU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Abilene Chrstn

30 games played

Straight up

11-19

37% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1937%

W L L W L W W L L W L W W L L L L L L L W W L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L L W L W W W W W L W W L L L L L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U U U O U O O O O O O O O U U O O U U U U U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsOMA	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 14	@SFA	L 66-76	+6.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 18	@TXST	L 49-63	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 112
Nov 24	vsUTSA	W 61-50	-2.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 111
Nov 25	vsW&M	L 58-92	-1.5	L −35.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 2	@PEPP	W 71-63	-1.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsNMSU	W 77-69	+1.5	W +9.5	131.5	O 146
Dec 16	@ARIZ	L 62-96	+34.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 19	@BYU	L 67-85	+33.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 22	@TXSO	W 75-68	-4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 1	vsUTU	L 64-79	-5.5	L −20.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 3	vsUVU	W 85-68	+7.5	W +24.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 8	@TAR	W 84-80	+4.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 164
Jan 10	@UTA	L 72-82	+3.5	L −6.5	134.5	O 154
Jan 15	vsCBU	L 58-74	-1.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 17	@SUU	L 52-74	-3.5	L −25.5	149.5	U 126
Jan 29	vsUTU	L 70-76	-3.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 31	vsSUU	L 76-79	-6.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 5	@UVU	L 55-68	+14.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 123
Feb 7	@CBU	L 63-65	+8.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 128
Feb 12	vsUTA	W 67-63	-1.5	W +2.5	134.5	U 130
Feb 14	vsTAR	W 73-59	-3.5	W +10.5	134.5	U 132
Feb 16	@TAR	L 62-65	-1.5	L −4.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsSUU	W 87-83	-8.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 170
Feb 26	@UTU	L 81-85	+2.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 166
Feb 28	@UVU	L 67-74	+14.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 5	@CBU	L 48-87	+9.5	L −29.5	136.5	U 135
Mar 7	vsUTA	L 57-64	-1.5	L −8.5	131.5	U 121
Mar 11	vsTAR	W 84-78	-1.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 162
Mar 12	vsUTU	L 74-80	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 73-71

−2.5

SFA

L 66-76

−3.5

TXST

L 49-63

−12.5

UTSA

W 61-50

+8.5

W&M

L 58-92

−35.5

PEPP

W 71-63

+6.5

NMSU

W 77-69

+9.5

ARIZ

L 62-96

+0.5

BYU

L 67-85

+15.5

TXSO

W 75-68

+2.5

UTU

L 64-79

−20.5

UVU

W 85-68

+24.5

TAR

W 84-80

+8.5

UTA

L 72-82

−6.5

CBU

L 58-74

−17.5

SUU

L 52-74

−25.5

UTU

L 70-76

−9.5

SUU

L 76-79

−9.5

UVU

L 55-68

+1.5

CBU

L 63-65

+6.5

UTA

W 67-63

+2.5

TAR

W 73-59

+10.5

TAR

L 62-65

−4.5

SUU

W 87-83

−4.5

UTU

L 81-85

−1.5

UVU

L 67-74

+7.5

CBU

L 48-87

−29.5

UTA

L 57-64

−8.5

TAR

W 84-78

+4.5

UTU

L 74-80

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 73-71

−6.5

SFA

L 66-76

−0.5

TXST

L 49-63

−26.5

UTSA

W 61-50

−33.5

W&M

L 58-92

+2.5

PEPP

W 71-63

−3.5

NMSU

W 77-69

+14.5

ARIZ

L 62-96

+12.5

BYU

L 67-85

+5.5

TXSO

W 75-68

+4.5

UTU

L 64-79

+3.5

UVU

W 85-68

+13.5

TAR

W 84-80

+23.5

UTA

L 72-82

+19.5

CBU

L 58-74

−8.5

SUU

L 52-74

−23.5

UTU

L 70-76

+0.5

SUU

L 76-79

+4.5

UVU

L 55-68

−22.5

CBU

L 63-65

−7.5

UTA

W 67-63

−4.5

TAR

W 73-59

−2.5

TAR

L 62-65

−7.5

SUU

W 87-83

+26.5

UTU

L 81-85

+26.5

UVU

L 67-74

+0.5

CBU

L 48-87

−1.5

UTA

L 57-64

−10.5

TAR

W 84-78

+27.5

UTU

L 74-80

+11.5

over 16under 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

S Dakota St

29 games played

Straight up

11-18

38% wins

Against the spread

12-17

41% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1838%

W L L W L L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1741%

W W W W L L W L L L L W W L L L W W L W L L L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U O O U U U O U O O O O O O U O U O O U U U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRMK	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 9	@UNI	L 58-65	+10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 12	@ORE	L 69-83	+16.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsGAST	W 105-58	-12.5	W +34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsUVU	L 52-75	+1.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsUCI	L 52-64	+2.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 116
Dec 3	@NAU	W 75-62	-2.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsIDHO	L 81-84	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 165
Dec 9	@BALL	W 68-64	-5.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 15	vsWYO	L 72-87	+3.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 19	@MILW	L 87-88	-1.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 29	@ARIZ	L 71-99	+31.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 170
Jan 1	vsOMA	W 84-69	-9.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 3	@UND	L 87-90	-7.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 177
Jan 8	vsDEN	W 87-79	-8.5	L −0.5	162.5	O 166
Jan 14	@NDSU	L 65-76	+5.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsKC	W 90-62	-13.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 22	@STMN	L 69-74	+6.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 28	@OMA	L 71-80	-1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsORU	W 95-72	-13.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 167
Feb 4	vsSTMN	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsSDAK	L 67-68	-11.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 12	@DEN	L 61-79	-2.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 140
Feb 14	@ORU	W 87-69	-5.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsNDSU	L 66-74	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 21	vsUND	W 91-83	-9.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 174
Feb 26	@KC	W 73-59	-12.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	@SDAK	L 70-75	-3.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 5	vsSTMN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

+2.5

UNI

L 58-65

+3.5

ORE

L 69-83

+2.5

GAST

W 105-58

+34.5

UVU

L 52-75

−21.5

UCI

L 52-64

−9.5

NAU

W 75-62

+10.5

IDHO

L 81-84

−8.5

BALL

W 68-64

−1.5

WYO

L 72-87

−11.5

MILW

L 87-88

−2.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+3.5

OMA

W 84-69

+5.5

UND

L 87-90

−10.5

DEN

W 87-79

−0.5

NDSU

L 65-76

−5.5

W 90-62

+14.5

STMN

L 69-74

+1.5

OMA

L 71-80

−10.5

ORU

W 95-72

+9.5

STMN

L 62-77

−16.5

SDAK

L 67-68

−12.5

DEN

L 61-79

−20.5

ORU

W 87-69

+12.5

NDSU

L 66-74

−6.5

UND

W 91-83

−1.5

W 73-59

+1.5

SDAK

L 70-75

−8.5

STMN

L 67-80

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 17avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

−2.5

UNI

L 58-65

−27.5

ORE

L 69-83

+6.5

GAST

W 105-58

+19.5

UVU

L 52-75

−24.5

UCI

L 52-64

−28.5

NAU

W 75-62

−11.5

IDHO

L 81-84

+17.5

BALL

W 68-64

−10.5

WYO

L 72-87

+9.5

MILW

L 87-88

+23.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+10.5

OMA

W 84-69

+0.5

UND

L 87-90

+24.5

DEN

W 87-79

+3.5

NDSU

L 65-76

−10.5

W 90-62

+0.5

STMN

L 69-74

−12.5

OMA

L 71-80

+0.5

ORU

W 95-72

+16.5

STMN

L 62-77

−18.5

SDAK

L 67-68

−24.5

DEN

L 61-79

−20.5

ORU

W 87-69

+8.5

NDSU

L 66-74

−6.5

UND

W 91-83

+22.5

W 73-59

−20.5

SDAK

L 70-75

−6.5

STMN

L 67-80

−3.5

over 14under 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Abilene Chrstn 1, S Dakota St 1, even 3

Abilene ChrstnBetterS Dakota St

G N. Bolanga TR11.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 38

SDSTSmall

G J. Sayler14.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 54

G Y. Rivera7.4 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 41

Even

G K. Garry10.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 49

G I. Dye1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G E. Ryans TR7.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 12

G E. Boisdur TR1.3 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F M. Thompson TR10.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 38

F C. Hornecker5.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 48

ACUSmall

C A. Squires4.4 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 29

Abilene ChrstnBetterS Dakota St

ACU offense298th of 366 · -9.2

SDSTSmall

SDST defense221st of 366 · -5.7

ACU defense200th of 366 · -5.0

Even

SDST offense185th of 366 · -5.7

Backcourt-3.6 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player

ACUSmall

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Bench-0.0 · 2 players

ACUSmall

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestACU betterSDST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Abilene Chrstn

Guards

N. Bolanga34 min · TRY. Rivera25 minI. Dye6 minE. Boisdur6 min · TRT. Pons5 min · TRI. Neyhart3 min

Forwards

C. Hornecker16 minV. Yimga MoukouriNewS. RowleyNewW. Marie-AnaisNew

S Dakota St

Guards

J. Sayler33 minK. Garry30 minE. Ryans27 min · TRT. Buchanan13 minJ. Rogers9 minJ. Cascio Jensen2 min

Forwards

M. Thompson29 min · TRJ. Mekonnen4 min · TRJ. Van KalsbeekNewD. KernNewY. YatabareNewB. EllweinNew

Centers

A. Squires14 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ACU67.9 #313

SDST74.4 #182

Points per possession

ACU0.98 #340

SDST1.09 #150

Pace (possessions)

ACU69.2 #167

SDST68.2 #220

Shooting

Effective FG%

ACU47.5 #326

SDST52.0 #143

3-point %

ACU31.0 #319

SDST34.0 #174

3-point attempt rate

ACU32.8 #318

SDST38.8 #193

Free throw rate

ACU41.7 #34

SDST29.7 #317

Possessions

Turnover rate

ACU20.8 #356

SDST16.2 #150

Offensive rebound rate

ACU31.0 #164

SDST30.3 #186

Assists per game

ACU12.5 #249

SDST13.8 #160

Defense

Points allowed

ACU73.9 #151

SDST74.5 #177

Points allowed per possession

ACU1.07 #123

SDST1.09 #198

Opponent effective FG%

ACU56.5 #352

SDST51.8 #204

Opponent 3-point %

ACU40.9 #365

SDST34.1 #191

Turnovers forced

ACU23.4 #3

SDST14.5 #323

Defensive rebound rate

ACU70.9 #113

SDST74.9 #9

Steals per game

ACU9.6 #4

SDST5.5 #291

Blocks per game

ACU2.6 #298

SDST2.2 #336

ACU		SDST
Scoring
67.9 #313	Points per game	74.4 #182
0.98 #340	Points per possession	1.09 #150
69.2 #167	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #220
Shooting
47.5 #326	Effective FG%	52.0 #143
31.0 #319	3-point %	34.0 #174
32.8 #318	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #193
41.7 #34	Free throw rate	29.7 #317
Possessions
20.8 #356	Turnover rate	16.2 #150
31.0 #164	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #186
12.5 #249	Assists per game	13.8 #160
Defense
73.9 #151	Points allowed	74.5 #177
1.07 #123	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #198
56.5 #352	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #204
40.9 #365	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #191
23.4 #3	Turnovers forced	14.5 #323
70.9 #113	Defensive rebound rate	74.9 #9
9.6 #4	Steals per game	5.5 #291
2.6 #298	Blocks per game	2.2 #336

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Abilene Chrstn

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah Tech74–80
Wvs Tarleton St84–78
Lvs UT Arlington57–64
L@ CA Baptist48–87
L@ Utah Valley67–74

A week or more of rest.

S Dakota St

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St Thomas67–80
L@ South Dakota70–75
W@ Kansas City73–59
Wvs North Dakota91–83
Lvs N Dakota St66–74

A week or more of rest.

Abilene Christian Wildcats at South Dakota State Jackrabbits

What could decide it: SDST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Abilene Chrstn

S Dakota St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Abilene Chrstn

S Dakota St